Gavin Hales Profile picture
27 Nov, 17 tweets, 7 min read
.@EssexBarrister I appreciated your contribution yesterday to the discussion on Sky. Wondered if I might offer a few pieces of the puzzle re disproportionality in terms of crime and policing?

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Nationally, '...among the broad ethnic groups, Black people were most likely to live in the 10% of neighbourhoods most deprived in relation to crime (27% of this group did so)’ ethnicity-facts-figures.service.gov.uk/uk-population-…

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In London (and elsewhere), areas (here boroughs) with more crime are allocated more police officers (TNO = Total Notifiable Offences)

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Nationally, Black respondents to the Crime Survey for England & Wales are 2x as likely as White to report high visibility of police foot patrols (28% vs 14%).

Source: Table s11 ons.gov.uk/file?uri=/peop…

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So Black people are exposed to more policing in part as a function of being more likely to live in more deprived neighbourhoods with higher crime rates which in turn are allocated more police resources.

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Higher deprivation is associated with higher rates of murder...

6/
Again in London, analysis by @MOPACLdn in their review of the #gangsmatrix shows that Black people are disproportionately affected by (esp more serious) violence as offenders and victims london.gov.uk/sites/default/…

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Disproportionality in arrests varies by crime type - here I look at arrests of children by the Met (nb the importance of gender: disproportionality is higher for Black boys than girls) police-foundation.org.uk/2017/wp-conten…

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There are connections between drug markets and violence, most strongly in the case of retail-level crack and heroin dealing. …d-4419-a368-724e7d1352b9.usrfiles.com/ugd/b9cf6c_9fe…

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My sense (fr research on gun crime & drugs markets, plus yrs spent around the policing of London), is drugs mkts recreate the structural inequalities of the mainstream econ, w Black youths/young adults disprop occupying the most risky posns (esp retail crack/heroin dealing).

12/
On #stopsearch, the national disproportionality figures (eg 9x) are skewed by the fact that the Met uses S&S at a much higher rate than other forces, and 58% of Black and Black mixed heritage people in E&W live in London.

13/
Still on #stopsearch, this discussion of logical fallacies re police suspicion may be of interest

14/
My analysis of Met police #useofforce data suggests frequency of Taser use is disproportionate in line with other police contact (S&S, arrests), but the profile of use is virtually identical betn White & Black subjects (caveats apply - see the thread)

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Incidentally, at the national level the gap betn Black & White respondents' confidence in local policing is betn Black Caribbean & White. Black African respondents express the same (actually v slightly higher) confidence in policing as White. ethnicity-facts-figures.service.gov.uk/crime-justice-…

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Disproportionate/'over' policing is, I think, both a symptom & a cause of structural inequalities. The challenge that follows is how to respond to disproportionate vulnerability/harm without compounding it. How might an explicit 'do no harm' approach look different?

17/

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More from @gmhales

27 Jul
Some focus today on an increase in s60 #stopsearch by the Met during lockdown, eg in this article by @sloumarsh. I'd like to suggest that's a bit of a red herring.

1/5 Thread

theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/j….
Here are the MPS #stopsearch monthly totals by reason for search/power, fr June 2018 to June 2020. Huge increase in totals over the period, driven by drugs stops (s23).

The s60 totals are in red at the bottom (Jan'20 1.2k, Feb 505, Mar 710, Apr 292, May 1.4k, Jun 678).

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And here are the monthly percentages by reason for search/power for the same period.

s60 peaked at 27% in Aug18 and 12% in Aug19 (both Notting Hill Carnival). Was 4.6% in Jan 2020, 2.2% in Feb, 3.0% in Mar, 1.0% in Apr, 3.3% in May and 2.3% in June #stopsearch

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Read 5 tweets
10 Jul
I recently suggested the high rate of #stopsearch by the MPS (and population demographics) skews national disproportionality rate calculations. In this thread I'll post some numbers.



1/ THREAD
I thought it would be interesting to look at how London/the MPS compares to the rest of England and Wales combined.

2/
I've looked at the #stopsearch rate per 1,000 for black and white people only (to simplify the analysis) for 2018/19. I've removed BTP & City of London due to the impossibility/difficulty to calc rates.

I'm using the data posted at (8) on this page: ethnicity-facts-figures.service.gov.uk/crime-justice-…

3/
Read 8 tweets
9 Jul
I've been thinking more about #stopsearch disproportionality. Thought I'd have a look at Lambeth, which is a borough with v high volumes of SS and lots of youth violence type issues.

1/ THREAD
The MPS #stopsearch dashboard shows SS during Jul19-Jun20 (total n=15,908) focused on males (93%), black subjects (61%), 15-24 yr olds (49%). Peak rate for 15-19 yr olds (309 per 1,000).

2/
Using the @LDN_data GLA 'Ethnic group projections (2016-based housing-led)' I looked at the estimated borough population structure, by gender, age and ethnicity, in 2019.
data.london.gov.uk/download/ethni…

3/
Read 14 tweets
7 Jul
Perhaps some context to complaints re #stopsearch in London: there has been a massive increase in volumes over the last 2yrs.

The result: falling arrest (and positive outcome) rates, down from 18.2% (30.7%) in Jul 18 to 9.1% (19.8%) in May 20. met.police.uk/sd/stats-and-d…

1/ THREAD
There is an inverse relationship between volumes and arrest/positive outcome rates. As volumes of #stopsearch increase, numbers of 'false positives' increase faster = more potential for complaints (all else being equal) and more risks to legitimacy.

2/
A key way the reduction in #stopsearch in London was achieved after 2011 was through a focus on the strength of grounds (how 'reasonable' were they) and arrest rates. A 20% arrest rate target was introduced and SS fell until it was reached.

3/
Read 9 tweets
31 Jan
Right, I've been crunching the numbers to look at the relationship between #policeworkforce changes in police officer numbers and the likely allocation of the #20kuplift.

Strap yourselves in, it's very interesting and may get bumpy.

THREAD

1/
First to say that I've used the allocation of the first 6k of the 20kuplift, which uses the existing #fundingformula, to determine how many cops of the 20k each force may get. Details in the attachment to this written statement. parliament.uk/business/publi…

2/
I've then used the Mar 2019 #policeworkforce statistics to look at changes between 2010 and 2019.

NB: I am using the 31 Mar 2019 numbers as a proxy for the #20kuplift baseline b/c that's all we've got now. In reality the baseline nos will be different

3/
Read 11 tweets
20 Sep 19
I missed this GLA slide pack when it was published in July.

'A Public Health Approach to Serious Youth Violence: Supporting Evidence'

1/

data.london.gov.uk/dataset/a-publ…
Sigh. I found it pretty frustrating.

Lots of data confirming the association with a range of indicators of disadvantage.

OK, useful.

2/
What's missing?

Longitudinal analysis, qualitative insights and a narrative.

A basic question: why did serious youth violence get worse between 2012/13 and 2017/18?

Nothing.

3/
Read 7 tweets

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