Right, I've been crunching the numbers to look at the relationship between #policeworkforce changes in police officer numbers and the likely allocation of the #20kuplift.
Strap yourselves in, it's very interesting and may get bumpy.
THREAD
1/
Strap yourselves in, it's very interesting and may get bumpy.
THREAD
1/
First to say that I've used the allocation of the first 6k of the 20kuplift, which uses the existing #fundingformula, to determine how many cops of the 20k each force may get. Details in the attachment to this written statement. parliament.uk/business/publi…
2/
2/
I've then used the Mar 2019 #policeworkforce statistics to look at changes between 2010 and 2019.
NB: I am using the 31 Mar 2019 numbers as a proxy for the #20kuplift baseline b/c that's all we've got now. In reality the baseline nos will be different
3/
NB: I am using the 31 Mar 2019 numbers as a proxy for the #20kuplift baseline b/c that's all we've got now. In reality the baseline nos will be different
3/
Here, then, is the #20kuplift (indicative) allocation using the current #fundingformula, expressed as a % increase on March 2019. Ranges from +21% in S Yorks to +12% in Dyfed-Powys, E&W avg 16%.
4/
4/
Now let's look instead at the relationship between the numbers of officers (FTE) lost between 2010 and 2019, and the likely allocation under the #20kuplift. First all 43 forces: 21 'winners' and 22 'losers' - but hard to see the detail due to the big forces.
5/
5/
So here's the same chart with the Met, WMP and GMP removed. Note Northumbria up at the top as a loser, Surrey at the bottom as a winner.
6/
6/
Final chart, here's a summary of the likely #20kuplift allocation, as a % of the number of officers lost between 2010 and 2019. Again, Surrey the big winners, Cleveland bottom of the heap. #policeworkforce
7/
7/
Austerity has had a range of impacts beyond police officer nos, and forces have gone in different directions, but overall cuts were hardest in forces most reliant on the C Govt grant (Northumbria) and softest in those least reliant (Surrey).
9/
9/
Looking at all of the above - and noting the allocations & baseline are indicative only - there seems to be a risk the #20kuplift will compound not address inequalities. Using the #fundingformula to allocate the 20k may be simple & politically expedient - but is it fair?
10/10
10/10
PS, here's some older analysis on workforce trends, including per 100k population (note that population growth has not been even across E&W) that might provide some useful context to the analysis above
11/
11/
