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Yaneer Bar-Yam Profile picture
@yaneerbaryam
Nov 27, 2020 • 20 tweets • 9 min read • Read on X
What is the economic cost of not going to #ZeroCOVID?

Some countries are enjoying normal life, minimal restrictions except limitations on international travel. Domestic economies are thriving and even tourism benefits from local travel.

Let’s look at several reports:

1/
Boston Consulting Group Report

“the sooner a country can limit the spread of the virus…the shorter the period that the economy will be frozen, and the sooner people can get back to work”



2/
International Monetary Fund Report



3/
McKinsey Report #1

Ending lockdowns alone won’t restore confidence or growth. Only when the novel coronavirus is under control will economic growth resume.

4/
mckinsey.com/industries/hea… Image
McKinsey Report #2

"Countries that focused on keeping virus spread near zero got their economies moving faster than others"

5/
mckinsey.com/featured-insig…
Our analytic study of the outbreak dynamics shows a very robust result:

Short term investment gives long term gain.

Theory and data agree, it is not accidental that it is obvious that countries that have suppressed the outbreak are doing well.

endcoronavirus.org/papers/minimiz…

6/
Financial times: "New Zealand, Inc. reaps benefit of hard and fast Covid lockdown"

7/
Image
New Zealand Response was applauded by business leaders as “Best in the World”

Makes a lot of sense when it is understood, and the vast majority of business people I have spoken to understand this.

8/
theguardian.com/world/2020/oct…
Here is a letter from a business group in Australia to the government to influence their policies. It worked!



9/
Epidemiologist and Economist:

"To save lives and the economy, we need another lockdown.

Dr. Osterholm, Director Center for Infectious Disease, University of Minnesota.

Mr. Kashkari, President Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.

nytimes.com/2020/08/07/opi…

10/
It is always better to act sooner than later.

Economic rational behavior: If you are willing to lock down for a number of cases, you should also be willing to lockdown for fewer cases, the cost is always lower.

…

11/ Image
Data: No tradeoff between health and economics.

…

12/ Image
Research shows many people don’t want to risk their lives or weeks in the hospital (surprise!) so the economy doesn’t recover with COVID

"COVID-19 Doesn’t Need Lockdowns to Destroy Jobs" National Bureau of Economic Research

13/

doi.org/10.3386/w27264 Image
More research showing people don’t want to risk their lives or weeks in the hospital so the economy doesn’t recover with COVID

Fear, Lockdown, and Diversion: Comparing Drivers of Pandemic Economic Decline 2020, National Bureau of Economic Research

14/
doi.org/10.3386/w27432 Image
Stopping COVID means the economy recovers because NORMAL life is restored

The vast majority of business people I have spoken to understand this

The business community, including the most vulnerable businesses, should push hardest for elimination

Asking for support is OK

15/
The time it takes is important to know

From experience, going all out, it takes 3-4 weeks to reduce cases/day by 100X

From 100,000 to 1,000

From 1,000 to 10

Substantial drop

2-3 more weeks and the country can open up

This has been done

Needed: Leadership & cooperation Image
Podcast for investors and executives

Podcast home link
macrohive.com/hive-podcasts/…

DIrect link to listen to the podcast
macrohive.com

Look below the graphic on the upper left. Podcast itself begins at 3:48
IBEC podcast

Our paper on lowest-cost pandemic conditions showing the lowest cost is for fewest cases.



#ZeroCovid

Links for pdf
arxiv.org/abs/2102.04758
necsi.edu/lowest-cost-vi……
endcoronavirus.org/papers/lowest-…

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More from @yaneerbaryam

Yaneer Bar-Yam Profile picture
Oct 1
Effective Oct 1, 2024-March 31, 2025, NJ Hackensack Meridian Health is requiring all patients, visitors and staff wear masks during patient encounters at all of its patient care facilities (e.g. hospitals, physician offices, rehabilitation facilities, etc)
hackensackmeridianhealth.org/en/patients-an…
Healthcare System in NJ Where is Hackensack Meridian Health requiring masking? Effective October 1, 2024 - March 31, 2025, Hackensack Meridian Health is requiring all patients, visitors and staff wear masks during patient encounters at all of its patient care facilities (e.g. hospitals, physician offices, rehabilitation facilities, etc.). Why is Hackensack Meridian Health requiring masking during patient encounters? To protect the well-being of our patients, team members, and visitors, especially during times of increased acute respiratory infections, this simple measure helps prevent the ...
About Hackensack Meridian Health

"...a leading not-for-profit health care organization that is the largest, most comprehensive and truly integrated health care network in New Jersey, offering a complete range of medical services, innovative research and life-enhancing care.
2/ Image
"The network has 18 hospitals and more than 500 patient care locations, which include ambulatory care centers, surgery centers, home health services, long-term care and assisted living communities, ambulance services, lifesaving air medical transportation,
3/
Read 4 tweets
Yaneer Bar-Yam Profile picture
Sep 24
What if schools could prevent sick days, teacher shortages and lost IQ points? A new COVID safety course lights the way

1/
 via @ABCaustraliaabc.net.au/news/2024-09-2…
"As a parent, I want my son to be safe at school, so that was a key part of my motivation to do this," says Mr Kinner, the Brisbane creator of COVID Safety for Schools, a free online course that aims to correct misinformation and teach school staff and parents how to reduce ..
2/
"..the risk of the virus spreading. "But also, having spoken to lots of other parents and teachers, it's clear that most schools are lacking an understanding of some of the absolute basics of COVID. And in the fifth year of the pandemic, I find that very troubling."

3/
Read 6 tweets
Yaneer Bar-Yam Profile picture
Sep 12
Mask bans are dumb, dangerous | Editorial

"What if a troublemaker simply decides to disguise his face with large sunglasses and a hat, instead? Are we going to criminalize sunglasses and hats, too?
1/
 nj.com/opinion/2024/0…
"Even with an exception for people who wear masks for medical reasons, it’s a threat to personal freedoms, because it leaves it up to the cops to decide whether someone has a legitimate medical reason for wearing a mask at a public gathering.
2/
"... in its current iteration, this bill would do little to deter actual criminals, while only further stigmatizing mask wearing for vulnerable people.

"Ask anyone still masking because of a weakened immune system, or to protect a loved one, ...
3/
Read 6 tweets
Yaneer Bar-Yam Profile picture
Sep 4
As COVID Surges, the High Price of Viral Denial @TheTyee
"Although the media routinely dismisses all COVID infections as an inconsequential nuisance, that’s not what the science says.
1/
 thetyee.ca/Analysis/2024/…
"An important new Nature study, for example, has now proven that the spike protein of the virus can bind with a blood protein, fibrin, setting off a chain of blood clots resulting in chronic inflammation and brain damage.

2/
"Repeated studies show in the bluntest terms that the initial acute infection is only the tip of the iceberg. Even a mild bout of COVID can leave a legacy of blood clots, heart failure, diabetes, decreased brain function long COVID and immune damage.
3/
Read 8 tweets
Yaneer Bar-Yam Profile picture
Aug 23
Town urges curfew over mosquito-spread disease that kills up to 50% of people

Eastern Equine Encephalitis is very rare in the US, but when it strikes, it's bad.

1/
arstechnica.com/science/2024/0…
"A small town in Massachusetts is urging residents to stay indoors in the evenings after the spread of a dangerous mosquito-spread virus reached "critical risk level" The virus causes Eastern equine encephalitis (EEE), which kills between 30 and 50 % of people who are stricken 2/
"Around half who survive are left permanently disabled, and some die within a few years due to complications. There is no treatment for EEE. So far, one person in the town—an elderly resident of Oxford—has already become seriously ill with neuroinvasive EEE.
3/
Read 12 tweets
Yaneer Bar-Yam Profile picture
Aug 19
No Amount of Hand-Washing Can Make COVID-19 a Seasonal Virus

"The selection of words modulates the message...terms such as “seasonal”, “like a cold”, and “like the flu” can be selected by writers to...lull the reader into a false sense of security...

1/
whn.global/scientific/no-…Image
"COVID-19 is not primarily a respiratory infection. This virus can cause a systemic disease with far-reaching effects on the body, particularly blood vessels. Once SARS-CoV-2 enters the body, the virus can affect the ...blood vessels, causing inflammation and damage.
2/
"This is where the challenge lies in understanding the risk that this virus poses to our health. The virus enters primarily via the respiratory tract, but then goes on to infect your organs across your body via your blood vessels.
3/
Read 4 tweets

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