Share this page!

Enter URL or ID to Unroll

You can paste full URL like: https://x.com/threadreaderapp/status/1644127596119195649
or just the ID like: 1644127596119195649

How to get URL link on X (Twitter) App

  1. On the Twitter thread, click on or icon on the bottom
  2. Click again on or Share Via icon
  3. Click on Copy Link to Tweet
  4. Paste it above and click "Unroll Thread"!
  5. More info at Twitter Help
Yaneer Bar-Yam Profile picture
@yaneerbaryam
Nov 27, 2020 • 20 tweets • 9 min read • Read on X
What is the economic cost of not going to #ZeroCOVID?

Some countries are enjoying normal life, minimal restrictions except limitations on international travel. Domestic economies are thriving and even tourism benefits from local travel.

Let’s look at several reports:

1/
Boston Consulting Group Report

“the sooner a country can limit the spread of the virus…the shorter the period that the economy will be frozen, and the sooner people can get back to work”



2/
International Monetary Fund Report



3/
McKinsey Report #1

Ending lockdowns alone won’t restore confidence or growth. Only when the novel coronavirus is under control will economic growth resume.

4/
mckinsey.com/industries/hea… Image
McKinsey Report #2

"Countries that focused on keeping virus spread near zero got their economies moving faster than others"

5/
mckinsey.com/featured-insig…
Our analytic study of the outbreak dynamics shows a very robust result:

Short term investment gives long term gain.

Theory and data agree, it is not accidental that it is obvious that countries that have suppressed the outbreak are doing well.

endcoronavirus.org/papers/minimiz…

6/
Financial times: "New Zealand, Inc. reaps benefit of hard and fast Covid lockdown"

7/
Image
New Zealand Response was applauded by business leaders as “Best in the World”

Makes a lot of sense when it is understood, and the vast majority of business people I have spoken to understand this.

8/
theguardian.com/world/2020/oct…
Here is a letter from a business group in Australia to the government to influence their policies. It worked!



9/
Epidemiologist and Economist:

"To save lives and the economy, we need another lockdown.

Dr. Osterholm, Director Center for Infectious Disease, University of Minnesota.

Mr. Kashkari, President Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.

nytimes.com/2020/08/07/opi…

10/
It is always better to act sooner than later.

Economic rational behavior: If you are willing to lock down for a number of cases, you should also be willing to lockdown for fewer cases, the cost is always lower.

…

11/ Image
Data: No tradeoff between health and economics.

…

12/ Image
Research shows many people don’t want to risk their lives or weeks in the hospital (surprise!) so the economy doesn’t recover with COVID

"COVID-19 Doesn’t Need Lockdowns to Destroy Jobs" National Bureau of Economic Research

13/

doi.org/10.3386/w27264 Image
More research showing people don’t want to risk their lives or weeks in the hospital so the economy doesn’t recover with COVID

Fear, Lockdown, and Diversion: Comparing Drivers of Pandemic Economic Decline 2020, National Bureau of Economic Research

14/
doi.org/10.3386/w27432 Image
Stopping COVID means the economy recovers because NORMAL life is restored

The vast majority of business people I have spoken to understand this

The business community, including the most vulnerable businesses, should push hardest for elimination

Asking for support is OK

15/
The time it takes is important to know

From experience, going all out, it takes 3-4 weeks to reduce cases/day by 100X

From 100,000 to 1,000

From 1,000 to 10

Substantial drop

2-3 more weeks and the country can open up

This has been done

Needed: Leadership & cooperation Image
Podcast for investors and executives

Podcast home link
macrohive.com/hive-podcasts/…

DIrect link to listen to the podcast
macrohive.com

Look below the graphic on the upper left. Podcast itself begins at 3:48
IBEC podcast

Our paper on lowest-cost pandemic conditions showing the lowest cost is for fewest cases.



#ZeroCovid

Links for pdf
arxiv.org/abs/2102.04758
necsi.edu/lowest-cost-vi……
endcoronavirus.org/papers/lowest-…

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
　

Keep Current with Yaneer Bar-Yam

Yaneer Bar-Yam Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @yaneerbaryam

Yaneer Bar-Yam Profile picture
Feb 23
Blood–brain barrier disruption...with long COVID-associated cognitive impairment

"Using dynamic contrast-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging, we show BBB disruption in patients with long COVID-associated brain fog.

nature.com/articles/s4159…
Image
"brain regions with reduced volume in patients with previous SARS-CoV-2 infection" Image
"Fig. 4: BBB permeability is associated with structural brain changes. Image
Read 4 tweets
Yaneer Bar-Yam Profile picture
Jan 23
Important News from CDC on HICPAC Infection Control recommendations:

"Based on the significant interest in the draft recommendations, CDC is taking a proactive step of communicating back to HICPAC some initial questions and comments...
1/
 blogs.cdc.gov/safehealthcare…
"In addition, CDC is working to expand the scope of technical backgrounds of participants on the HICPAC Isolation Guideline Workgroup .. in accordance with the Federal Advisory Committee Act (FACA) regulations and guidance.
2/
"The expanded workgroup and the HICPAC with the newly appointed members will review and discuss these additional considerations and guideline at the next HICPAC meeting, which is open to the public.
3/
Read 8 tweets
Yaneer Bar-Yam Profile picture
Jan 19
"Long Covid: NHS legal action launched by family of girl

"The mother of an 11-year-old Aberdeenshire girl with long Covid has launched a legal action against their health board, in what lawyers claim is the first case of its kind in Scotland.
1/
 bbc.com/news/uk-scotla…
"Helen Goss, from Westhill, is seeking damages from NHS Grampian on behalf of her daughter, Anna Hendy.
"The action claims the health board is responsible for "multiple failings" in Anna's treatment and care.
"NHS Grampian said it would not comment on individual patient cases.
2/
"The claim alleges failings were avoidable, that they caused Anna "injury and damage", and led to her condition worsening.

"Anna became unwell after contracting Covid in 2020.

3/ Image
Read 12 tweets
Yaneer Bar-Yam Profile picture
Jan 18
Handwashing, Gloves, and Masks: Oh My!
In 1847, German obstetrician Ignaz Semmelweis saw that obstetric patients died of childbed fever at a much higher rate than those treated by midwives...he suggested to his colleagues that they wash their hands
1/
 whn.global/handwashing-gl…
..before examining their new mother patients. His idea was ridiculed and ignored. Patients continued to suffer unnecessary illness and death until Louis Pasteur’s experimental confirmation of germ theory in 1861 was disseminated and accepted in the medical community. ..
2/
"Today handwashing is a mainstay of medical protection and of basic hygiene far beyond the medical arena.

"When I was a child in the 1960s and 1970s, my dentist and physician conducted exams and dental work with clean hands but no gloves.
3/
Read 8 tweets
Yaneer Bar-Yam Profile picture
Jan 12
"Covid is everywhere, and I’m wearing a mask again – why is that so weird?

"Spain has made mask wearing mandatory in hospitals and health settings as the country faces a wave of Covid and flu infections. A junior doctor says she thinks Britain should do the same

1/ Image
"As of this week, masks are mandatory in Spain’s hospitals&health centres as the country experiences a surge in Covid, flu & other illnesses. As the UK navigates a similar surge this winter, Chidera Ota, 29, explains why she’s started wearing a mask while out and about.

2/
"At the end of December, I started wearing a mask again. I was taking the coach from London to Edinburgh for Christmas, and as I was queuing in the coach station, all I could hear was coughing and spluttering. I knew Covid cases were reaching a record high, flu was everywhere. 3/
Read 15 tweets
Yaneer Bar-Yam Profile picture
Dec 14, 2023
"What Companies Can Do Against Long Covid
By Britta Domke

"Many companies are overlooking the significant risk posed by Long Covid, a decision that could have serious repercussions. With a few targeted measures, it's possible to make workplaces largely safe from coronavirus. 1/
"Deserted workplaces, everyone's out with Corona: For businesses, this wave of illness often translates into considerable revenue losses.
2/
"The news from Jena University Hospital barely made a ripple in most newspapers. The business sector remained silent. However, what an interdisciplinary team from Jena revealed in a study with 40 Long Covid patients should be a cause for concern among employers.
3/
Read 15 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us!

Send Email!

:(