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Yaneer Bar-Yam Profile picture
@yaneerbaryam
Nov 27, 2020 • 20 tweets • 9 min read • Read on X
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What is the economic cost of not going to #ZeroCOVID?

Some countries are enjoying normal life, minimal restrictions except limitations on international travel. Domestic economies are thriving and even tourism benefits from local travel.

Let’s look at several reports:

1/
Boston Consulting Group Report

“the sooner a country can limit the spread of the virus…the shorter the period that the economy will be frozen, and the sooner people can get back to work”



2/
International Monetary Fund Report



3/
McKinsey Report #1

Ending lockdowns alone won’t restore confidence or growth. Only when the novel coronavirus is under control will economic growth resume.

4/
mckinsey.com/industries/hea… Image
McKinsey Report #2

"Countries that focused on keeping virus spread near zero got their economies moving faster than others"

5/
mckinsey.com/featured-insig…
Our analytic study of the outbreak dynamics shows a very robust result:

Short term investment gives long term gain.

Theory and data agree, it is not accidental that it is obvious that countries that have suppressed the outbreak are doing well.

endcoronavirus.org/papers/minimiz…

6/
Financial times: "New Zealand, Inc. reaps benefit of hard and fast Covid lockdown"

7/
Image
New Zealand Response was applauded by business leaders as “Best in the World”

Makes a lot of sense when it is understood, and the vast majority of business people I have spoken to understand this.

8/
theguardian.com/world/2020/oct…
Here is a letter from a business group in Australia to the government to influence their policies. It worked!



9/
Epidemiologist and Economist:

"To save lives and the economy, we need another lockdown.

Dr. Osterholm, Director Center for Infectious Disease, University of Minnesota.

Mr. Kashkari, President Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.

nytimes.com/2020/08/07/opi…

10/
It is always better to act sooner than later.

Economic rational behavior: If you are willing to lock down for a number of cases, you should also be willing to lockdown for fewer cases, the cost is always lower.

…

11/ Image
Data: No tradeoff between health and economics.

…

12/ Image
Research shows many people don’t want to risk their lives or weeks in the hospital (surprise!) so the economy doesn’t recover with COVID

"COVID-19 Doesn’t Need Lockdowns to Destroy Jobs" National Bureau of Economic Research

13/

doi.org/10.3386/w27264 Image
More research showing people don’t want to risk their lives or weeks in the hospital so the economy doesn’t recover with COVID

Fear, Lockdown, and Diversion: Comparing Drivers of Pandemic Economic Decline 2020, National Bureau of Economic Research

14/
doi.org/10.3386/w27432 Image
Stopping COVID means the economy recovers because NORMAL life is restored

The vast majority of business people I have spoken to understand this

The business community, including the most vulnerable businesses, should push hardest for elimination

Asking for support is OK

15/
The time it takes is important to know

From experience, going all out, it takes 3-4 weeks to reduce cases/day by 100X

From 100,000 to 1,000

From 1,000 to 10

Substantial drop

2-3 more weeks and the country can open up

This has been done

Needed: Leadership & cooperation Image
Podcast for investors and executives

Podcast home link
macrohive.com/hive-podcasts/…

DIrect link to listen to the podcast
macrohive.com

Look below the graphic on the upper left. Podcast itself begins at 3:48
IBEC podcast

Our paper on lowest-cost pandemic conditions showing the lowest cost is for fewest cases.



#ZeroCovid

Links for pdf
arxiv.org/abs/2102.04758
necsi.edu/lowest-cost-vi……
endcoronavirus.org/papers/lowest-…

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More from @yaneerbaryam

Yaneer Bar-Yam Profile picture
Nov 1, 2025
I appreciate Andrew Nikiforuk at TheTyee for highlighting the continuing science of COVID and the importance of prevention. The virus keeps reshaping health and society — we can still choose to act wisely.
1/
 thetyee.ca/Analysis/2025/…
Six years in, COVID isn’t “over.” Repeated infections raise risks for heart disease, dementia, immune dysfunction, higher infection rates for many diseases, and cancer. These harms are cumulative — every act of prevention matters.
2/
We already have tools that work: clean indoor air, high-quality respirators, testing, vaccination, and smart exposure avoidance.
The question isn’t what to do — it’s why so many still won’t do it.
3/
Read 4 tweets
Yaneer Bar-Yam Profile picture
Sep 7, 2025
Here are three clear and important statements about COVID and Long COVID — what’s happening to our bodies, why the medical system fails to respond, and how to support the people affected.

Worth your time. Sharing them here:
1.COVID isn’t a cold. It’s cigarettes all over again.

A vivid explanation of how repeat infections accumulate damage — and why pretending otherwise won’t protect us.

2. How to support someone with Long COVID.

Honest, clear, and compassionate. Why it’s hard — and how to do it anyway.

Read 4 tweets
Yaneer Bar-Yam Profile picture
Dec 26, 2024
UK doctors and nurses with long Covid to sue for compensation
"Nearly 300 British doctors, nurses and other health workers with long Covid are suing the health service for compensation, saying they were not given proper protection during the pandemic. 1/
irishtimes.com/world/uk/2024/…
"They say their lives have been devastated by a host of severe health complications. Most cannot return to work and many are housebound.
2/
“This is life-changing. People are really suffering financially. Some are living in poverty,” said nurse Rachel Hext, one of the claimants. “We’re suing because this is the only way of providing for our futures.”
3/
Read 9 tweets
Yaneer Bar-Yam Profile picture
Nov 15, 2024
Thread: Public Comment on HICPAC Concerns 🧵

1/ I’m here not to address HICPAC directly, but to speak to those listening—healthcare professionals, patients, and advocates—who are committed to public health and safety.

Let me highlight several critical concerns.
2/ Members of HICPAC and the organizations they represent have significant financial conflicts of interest.

This issue, documented in a complaint submitted to the HHS Office of Inspector General, raises serious questions about the integrity of their guidance.
3/ Additionally, HICPAC has operated in secrecy, with workgroup meetings closed to public scrutiny.

This violates the Federal Advisory Committee Act, which mandates transparency. Such closed-door decisions erode trust and undermine accountability.
Read 14 tweets
Yaneer Bar-Yam Profile picture
Nov 3, 2024
"Prevention of COVID-19 is of utmost importance. For several years, many in our society largely based their COVID recommendations on a one infection and done strategy. We now know that many are coming down with multiple bouts of the disease.1/
kentucky.com/opinion/op-ed/…
"We were told that severe outcomes were hospitalization and death, otherwise you had a mild disease. Now we are faced with crippling long COVID which has ravaged many in our society. In the United Kingdom, long COVID affects as many as 33.6% of healthcare workers.
2/
"At the same time, we were assured our children are safe, they will almost never get severely sick from the virus. However, we started seeing long-term effects from COVID-19 in some of the children we know, and hoped they were outliers. 3/
Read 7 tweets
Yaneer Bar-Yam Profile picture
Oct 1, 2024
Effective Oct 1, 2024-March 31, 2025, NJ Hackensack Meridian Health is requiring all patients, visitors and staff wear masks during patient encounters at all of its patient care facilities (e.g. hospitals, physician offices, rehabilitation facilities, etc)
hackensackmeridianhealth.org/en/patients-an…
Healthcare System in NJ Where is Hackensack Meridian Health requiring masking? Effective October 1, 2024 - March 31, 2025, Hackensack Meridian Health is requiring all patients, visitors and staff wear masks during patient encounters at all of its patient care facilities (e.g. hospitals, physician offices, rehabilitation facilities, etc.). Why is Hackensack Meridian Health requiring masking during patient encounters? To protect the well-being of our patients, team members, and visitors, especially during times of increased acute respiratory infections, this simple measure helps prevent the ...
About Hackensack Meridian Health

"...a leading not-for-profit health care organization that is the largest, most comprehensive and truly integrated health care network in New Jersey, offering a complete range of medical services, innovative research and life-enhancing care.
2/ Image
"The network has 18 hospitals and more than 500 patient care locations, which include ambulatory care centers, surgery centers, home health services, long-term care and assisted living communities, ambulance services, lifesaving air medical transportation,
3/
Read 4 tweets

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