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Martin Juhl Profile picture
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27 Nov, 12 tweets, 7 min read
3 argumenter for at holde smitten nede

➡️Bedre økonomi
➡️markant lavere overdødelighed
➡️Vacciner kommer snart

1/12

@Heunicke @SSI_dk @SSTbrostrom
Oversigt over rapporter, som peger på at lande med lav smitte har klaret sig bedre økonomisk
2/12
Graf som viser sammenhæng mellem overdødelighed og Covid-19 dødsfald.
Lande med lidt smitte har også haft lav overdødelighed, mens lande med megen smitte har haft stor overdødelighed.
Det indikerer at restriktioner dræber markant færre end Covid-19
3/12
Her er samme graf uden USA, som er noget af en outlier.
Korrelationen er stadig markant (R2 falder fra 0,98 ➡️ 0,87)
4/12
Our world in data viser at der er stor variation mellem hvilke lande der har haft overdødelighed i alderen 15-64år
Især England, Spanien & USA har været hårdt ramte
5/12

US: cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/6…
UK: ourworldindata.org/excess-mortali…

Mulig forklaring:
Vacciner: Start 2021 - måske endda i december - vil de første danskere begynde at blive vaccineret, vurderer sundhedsmyndighederne

Alle vil får tilbudt en gratis og frivillig vaccine, når den er godkendt af myndighederne
6/12
sst.dk/da/Nyheder/202…

nyheder.tv2.dk/samfund/2020-1…
Mere data om alle vaccinerne:
7/12
Samlet evaluering af hvad Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) for SARS-CoV-2 i Danmark er

IFR (DK) = >0,74%

8/12
Den største udfordring med Covid-19 er dog det store antal hospitalsindlæggelser + intensiv, udbredt smitte resulterer i.
3-6% af alle smittede ender på hospitalet, forudsat at alle aldersgrupper bliver smittet %vis ens

9/12
thelancet.com/journals/lanin…
Ratio mellem hospitalsindlagte:intensiv er 3:1-7:1 for de fleste europæiske lande
10/12
ecdc.europa.eu/en/publication…
Senfølger: Det er måske stadig svært og for tidligt at sætte procenter på, hvor mange der bliver ramt af senfølger, men indtil nu er der indsamlet følgende data, som tyder på at prævalensen for senfølger ligger omkring 1-2% efter 3 måneder
11/12
facebook.com/groups/2450225…
ECDC estimat for smittespredningen i Danmark året ud med et estimat >2.000 smittede per dag ved juletid
12/12
ecdc.europa.eu/sites/default/…

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More from @MartinJuhl2

Martin Juhl Profile picture
11 Nov
New article published on cross-immunity and protection against SARS-CoV-2 from previous infections

Only 5% of 302 people with a median age of 51 years had cross-reactivity

While 44% (21 out of 48) 1-16 year olds had cross-reactivity with SARS-CoV-2
1/x
Another new paper just out, contradicts this finding:
Looked at 36 children (1-17 yo) and 168 adults (18-90 yo) finds that pre-pandemic cross-reactive antibodies do not confer protection against infection or disease severity
2/x
Overall kids have a significantly milder disease progression, with or without cross immunity

3/x ImageImageImage
Read 24 tweets
Martin Juhl Profile picture
13 Oct
Of the 225 530 excess deaths, 150 541 (67%) were attributed to COVID-19. US mortality rates for heart disease and Alzheimer disease/dementia increased Mar-Apr. AD deaths also up in June-July, coinciding with the summer surge in sunbelt states.
jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/…
Deaths from non–COVID-19 causes (eg, Alzheimer disease, diabetes, heart disease) increased sharply in 5 states with the most COVID-19 deaths

Excess deaths most likely Covid-19 deaths
The reason for worse prognosis in ppl w diabetes is likely to be multifactorial. Age, sex, ethnicity, comorbidities hypertension and cardiovascular disease, obesity, and a pro-inflammatory and pro-coagulative state all probably contribute to the risk. thelancet.com/journals/landi…
Read 5 tweets
Martin Juhl Profile picture
12 Oct
Six Potential Treatments for COVID19 Identified using AI

cytokine storm🚫
- antifibrinolytic agent aprotinin
- ang II blocker irbesartan

blood clotting and inflammation🚫
- caplacizumab
- ezetimibe/atorvastatin

MoA not specified
- lycopene
- vitamin D
medscape.com/viewarticle/93…
Website with many links and other potential drug repurposing candidates, such as hydrocortisone and doxycycline biovista.com/solutions/proj…
Aprotinin
A bit of a strange finding, used to reduce bleeding during complex surgery (heart/liver). Its main effect is the slowing down of fibrinolysis, the process that leads to the breakdown of blood clots
…-publications.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.111…
academic.oup.com/bja/article/11…
pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/7543841/
Read 15 tweets
Martin Juhl Profile picture
12 Oct
Interesting new report from Norway:

Link between lower CV disease and fewer influenza infections mentioned on page 11

Paper on the subject:
Cardiovascular Hospitalizations, Influenza Activity, and COVID-19 Measures
pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32757861/

fhi.no/contentassets/…
1/5 ImageImage
Translated: The comparison showed that hospital admissions for cardiovascular disease were halved during the shutdown when the pandemic hit Norway, and remained lower than normal in the first weeks after the gradual easing of measures.
2/5
In parallel with the shutdown, there was an increase in admissions for covid-19 and a as the authorities gradually eased the restrictions, there was an increase in admissions for cardiovascular disease, but to a lower level than before the onset of the epidemic in Norway.
3/5
Read 5 tweets
Martin Juhl Profile picture
10 Oct
A compilation on current data on seasonality of SARS-CoV-2 as well as historic data on other virus, such as common cold HCoV's and influenza
Leading virus immunity expert Prof Iwasaki on seasonality of virus: highlights the importance of the environmental factors: temperature and humidity as well as vitamin D status, in modulating immune responses to viral infections in the respiratory tract. annualreviews.org/doi/10.1146/an…
Temperature, Humidity, and Latitude Analysis to Estimate Potential Spread and Seasonality of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19).
jamanetwork.com/journals/jaman…
Read 27 tweets

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