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27 Nov, 5 tweets, 3 min read
On the #Brexit talks, I hear good and bad news - a short thread. The good news is that on most of the contentious issues - state aid, level playing field, dispute settlement - there has been movement and real progress. @CER_London /1
The bad news: there has been no progress at all on fish. Neither EU (pressed by France) nor UK can easily compromise. Tory MPs care more about fish than eg state aid. And I hear @MichelBarnier is today meeting fisheries ministers - who will presumably tell him not to move. /2
Someone quite close to the talks says he worries that the nature of the process could lead to an unintended crash. All the talking has to happen between Barnier and @DavidGHFrost and their teams - neither team wants others involved. Yet neither team can easily be flexible. /3
And yet, I am told, if only @BorisJohnson could chat to @EmmanuelMacron - and they could explain to each other the political sensitivities on fish, and their real bottom lines - they could probably sort out a compromise. /4
After all, no deal would mean French fishermen losing all rights in British waters, and British fishermen being barred from selling to the EU. It really would be silly if the Brexit trade negotiations floundered on fish. Time for UK ministers and EU govts to get involved? /ENDS

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More from @CER_Grant

Charles Grant Profile picture
7 Nov
What will be the impact of Trump's 4 years, Biden's arrival and COVID-19 on global politics, over the next five years or so? A few thoughts in a thread. @CER_EU /1
America is weaker. Trump's antics have damaged the US's soft power - and the recent election process hasn't helped. Poor handling of the pandemic has harmed the US's reputation and economy. Biden will polish its image but Republicans will stop him making big changes. /2
Conversely China has had a good COVID-19, apart from an initial wobble, having successfully suppressed the virus and even achieved economic growth this year. This will further boost its already excessive self-confidence. /3
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Charles Grant Profile picture
10 Sep
Assuming that HMG sticks with its apparent plan of scrapping parts of Withdrawal Agreement and doing without an EU-UK trade accord, I foresee 10 consequences - a short thread. @CER_EU /1
The PM wants to eliminate the border in Irish Sea. That means a border of some sort between NI & ROI, to police EU's single mkt & customs union. In the view of many, including most ROI politicians, that endangers Good Friday Agreement. One reason Republican terrorists..../2
laid down their arms was that that border went. So consequence 1) A very bad UK-Ireland relationship. Consequence 2) An annoyed US political class that will block any UK-US trade accord (as Pelosi has spelled out). Consequence 3) Increased likelihood of violence in NI... /3
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Charles Grant Profile picture
6 Aug
Having spoken to senior people in Brussels on #Brexit, a short thread. They expect the crunch in late Sep or Oct. For now they think @DavidGHFrost lacks a mandate to make the compromises that wd advance the talks. They think HMG divided on whether it wants a deal. @CER_EU /1
The key to unlocking a deal is for UK to make a proposal for its state aid regime. Everything else wd then fall into place, including fish, which being so political will be the last issue to be settled. When EU happy on state aid and level playing field it'll move on fish. /2
Everyone knows what the LPF compromise will be: UK will promise not to lower standards, EU'll have right to punish UK if it does. EU side - even France - can envisage compromises on financial services equivalence & data adequacy (though recent ECJ ruling makes latter harder). /3
Read 5 tweets
Charles Grant Profile picture
22 Jul
The EU is getting fed up with the Brexit negotiations, saying the UK has wasted all the talks in July by not offering any real compromises. They wonder if UK wants a deal. But I still think deal more likely than not (this year). A thread on why I'm slightly optimistic. @CER_EU /1
A). EU wants a deal and has already signaled some willingness to compromise on eg fish, state aid, ECJ. B). HMG's handling of CV-19 has led to questions about its competence. If no deal causes chaos - queues at ports, broken supply chains, food shortages - then more questions. /2
C). No 10 is getting worried about Scotland. SNP may do v well in next spring's Scottish election and would do even better if BJ bungles Brexit by going for no deal. Unionists in Scotland pray for a deal. (No deal would also make the N Ireland-GB border much harder to manage.) /3
Read 18 tweets
Charles Grant Profile picture
26 Apr
How is COVID-19 changing the EU? As far as I can see, most of the big changes are accelerations of trends that were already visible. Take six of them - a short thread. @CER_EU /1
There was already talk of de-globalisation and on-shoring. Now worries about security of supply of key drugs and bits of medical equipment have reinforced the notion that individual countries or the EU as a whole need to be more self-sufficient./2
Similarly, EU will favour emergence of European champions. Before coronavirus, the EU planned to tweak rules on foreign take-overs and mergers, to make it harder for unfairly-subsidised Chinese firms to buy up high-tech industry. Now suspicion of China is markedly higher. /3
Read 9 tweets
Charles Grant Profile picture
18 Feb
Recently in Paris, here is a thread on Brexit and other EU issues - such as the new Commission, enlargement and competition policy. @CER_EU /1
France and Germany have different concerns on Brexit. France worries that if Brexit isn't seen to hurt, anti-EU populists will win more votes. Germany cares more about a bad-tempered departure weakening UK-EU security co-operation and Europe's cohesion vis-a-vis its enemies. /2
France will be very tough on 'level playing field provisions' in talks on the free trade agreement. But there is a range of opinions within the French govt on which areas should be subject to 'dynamic alignment'. Some say only state aid. /3
Read 10 tweets

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