Some thoughts on Trump & UK & EU. The big concern of top people in BXL is to maintain unity. The pro-Trump faction will be bigger than in 2016: Hungary, Slovakia, soon Czechia, Poland's president, the dominant party in Dutch govt and the biggest parties in Austria & France. /1 The real worry is that Italy's Meloni - who has so far been 'responsible' on foreign policy (eg pro-Ukraine) - could return to her nativist roots and become Trump's special friend in the EU. /2

I just spent a week in Beijing, for the first time in many years. A few thoughts. The war in Ukraine is creating huge strains in China's relations with the US and the EU. This is because the war has pushed China into closer alignment with Russia, Iran and DPRK. /1 @CER_EU What drives China's foreign policy is an obsession with the US - and its efforts to stymie China's emergence as a great power, for example through controls on the export of hi-tech goods. Feeling insecure, China's leaders need all the friends they can find. /2

Having recently had the chance to talk to people in the British govt (and one key EU govt) I am getting more optimistic about the chances of a deal on the NI protocol before the 25th anniversary of Good Friday Agreement in April. Short thread. @CER_EU /1 Both sides know both will need to move from their core positions, and the UK, at least, seems to think that this will happen. The optimists in the govt reckon that the EU understands the need to reduce friction on GB-NI border, to make life easier for firms in NI and GB. /2

Liz Truss deserves credit for changing her mind and deciding to go to the inaugural meeting of the European Political Community in Prague on Oct 6. When I asked her about it last summer she was hostile, saying that Europe had enough organisations already. A short thread. /1 But she listened to officials and to Macron and other leaders who argued that, given Russia's aggressive behaviour, European heads of govt needed a forum in which they could co-operate and better align their approaches to Russia. Truss could foster some friendships in Prague. /2

This proposal on the European Political Community by 4 experts - @pisaniferry @D_Schwarzer @Shahinvallee & @prof_mayer - is well-argued and interesting. But it would have benefited from some input from people other than French & Germans. A short thread. /1

https://twitter.com/Grand_Continent/status/1572984959836602369

I think one of @EmmanuelMacron's several rationales for the EPC is the desire to 'socialise the British' - include them in a European forum so that they rebuild some ties and contribute geopolitically. Yet the @dgapev @Grand_Continent @Bruegel_org paper ignores the Brits. /2

The invasion of #Ukraine will have consequences - a thread. 1) Russia's economy already faced multiple problems - inability to diversify from hydrocarbon exports, the dead weight of corruption, stagnant living standards; sanctions (esp tech bans) & isolation will hurt economy. 2) Cut off from West, Russia has no choice but to become junior partner of China. Beijing is ambivalent on invasion - it won't criticise Russia in public and blames the US, but values stability & territorial integrity. It never recognised S Ossetia/Abkhazia or annex'n of Crimea.

.@CER_EU's annual report has my essay on how the world has changed in the 25 years since our birth: cer.eu/about/annual-r…. A 14-tweet thread on the 10 main points. At our birth the West & its values were pre-eminent. Now democracy is in retreat and authoritarianism is stronger. 1) The US was the sole super-power and clearly committed to European security. But Afghanistan, Iraq, the financial crisis & Trump's antics tarnished its reputation. Trump nearly quit NATO and Europeans cannot assume that the US commitment to their security is immutable.

A few take-aways from hearing Hungarian opposition leader @markizaypeter at @ChathamHouse, in conversation with @fromTGA. He came across as pleasant and thoughtful - but I was left wondering if he can be rough enough and tough enough to defeat Orban. /1 @CER_EU He declared he was the opposite of what Orban claims to be - a right-wing Christian conservative. Orban's ideology was corruption and he was building a 1-party state through control of media and courts. He would restore checks & balances via a referendum on a new constitution. /2

A short thread on the resignation of @DavidGHFrost as Brexit minister. It matters. Together with the PM he ran Brexit policy. Few other ministers or officials had much say. And he was a big advocate of the thump'em school of diplomacy, believing that being tough gets results./1 When I was in BXL 2 weeks ago, meeting EU & govt officials, I was told that he was personally responsible for the dire state of EU-UK relations; when @michaelgove had played a role, more diplomatically, solutions had been in sight. Some of those I spoke to really hated Frost. /2

A few thoughts on the UK's proposals to sort out the problems with the Northern Ireland protocol. First, some of what it says is reasonable: the partially applied protocol is causing real economic, social and political disruption; /1 @CER_EU there is no inherent reason why goods going from GB to NI that will never go into Ireland should be checked by the EU - so long as a strong policing system prevents cheating; nor is there a reason why goods circulating in NI (that won't go south) shd comply with EU standards. /2

Yesterday I was delighted to join an Aspen Italia/@Russian_Council roundtable on Russia & EU, with @martadassu @DmitriTrenin, Andrei Kortunov, Pasquale Terracciano et al. The following thread summarises some of what I said, on why Russia-EU relations are unlikely to improve. /1 Russia is locked into a gentle economic decline, because its leaders don't want to move away from dependency on natural resource exports, or improve rule of law. As Europe cuts demand for oil & gas, Russia will lose some bargaining power. Standards of living are falling. /2

Our @CER_EU webinar on the UK's Integrated Review will be posted on cer.eu soon. @LordRickettsP was constructively critical, pointing to lack of priorities and to little being said about EU. How can UK be a leader power in European security or Sci-Tek, /1 or a leading regulatory power unless it has good relations to EU? He said UK soft power weakened by cuts to overseas aid, scrapping Difid, visa restrictions and threats to int'l law. But he was happy that 'tilt to Indo-Pacific' was mostly rhetoric - no real cut in commitment /2

Though the UK and the EU have agreed a Trade and Co-operation Agreement, massive uncertainties still swirl around the future of their relationship. Here are 5, in a short thread. @CER_London 1/6 The TCA says virtually nothing about future co-operation on foreign policy and defence; the UK wanted no institutional links. But will a future UK govt see the case for ties that would enable it to learn what the EU governments are thinking, and influence them? 2/6

.@CER_EU will be analysing the #Brexit deal in due course, when there is a text to study. In the meantime here are 10 reflections on the Brexit process - a thread. /1 1. Getting a free trade agreem't done in less than a year is unusually quick. Both teams of negotiators deserve praise. UK's refusal to extend transition may have helped, by concentrating minds. The cost: great uncertainty for firms, which haven't known what rules to expect. /2

Both sides in the Brexit talks seem to be suffering from a dearth of intel on what the other side is really thinking. At the moment, EU may not appreciate that Johnson really doesn't seem to care about the rational arguments pro a deal. He is relaxed about no deal. @CER_EU /1 But the UK has persistently mis-read EU throughout Brexit process, eg thinking German exporters will ride to rescue, or that the nice member-states need to intervene v. the nasty @MichelBarnier, or that the EU is so scared of no deal, that if UK is tough Barnier will fold. /3

On the #Brexit talks, I hear good and bad news - a short thread. The good news is that on most of the contentious issues - state aid, level playing field, dispute settlement - there has been movement and real progress. @CER_London /1 The bad news: there has been no progress at all on fish. Neither EU (pressed by France) nor UK can easily compromise. Tory MPs care more about fish than eg state aid. And I hear @MichelBarnier is today meeting fisheries ministers - who will presumably tell him not to move. /2

What will be the impact of Trump's 4 years, Biden's arrival and COVID-19 on global politics, over the next five years or so? A few thoughts in a thread. @CER_EU /1 America is weaker. Trump's antics have damaged the US's soft power - and the recent election process hasn't helped. Poor handling of the pandemic has harmed the US's reputation and economy. Biden will polish its image but Republicans will stop him making big changes. /2

Assuming that HMG sticks with its apparent plan of scrapping parts of Withdrawal Agreement and doing without an EU-UK trade accord, I foresee 10 consequences - a short thread. @CER_EU /1 The PM wants to eliminate the border in Irish Sea. That means a border of some sort between NI & ROI, to police EU's single mkt & customs union. In the view of many, including most ROI politicians, that endangers Good Friday Agreement. One reason Republican terrorists..../2

Having spoken to senior people in Brussels on #Brexit, a short thread. They expect the crunch in late Sep or Oct. For now they think @DavidGHFrost lacks a mandate to make the compromises that wd advance the talks. They think HMG divided on whether it wants a deal. @CER_EU /1 The key to unlocking a deal is for UK to make a proposal for its state aid regime. Everything else wd then fall into place, including fish, which being so political will be the last issue to be settled. When EU happy on state aid and level playing field it'll move on fish. /2

The EU is getting fed up with the Brexit negotiations, saying the UK has wasted all the talks in July by not offering any real compromises. They wonder if UK wants a deal. But I still think deal more likely than not (this year). A thread on why I'm slightly optimistic. @CER_EU /1 A). EU wants a deal and has already signaled some willingness to compromise on eg fish, state aid, ECJ. B). HMG's handling of CV-19 has led to questions about its competence. If no deal causes chaos - queues at ports, broken supply chains, food shortages - then more questions. /2

How is COVID-19 changing the EU? As far as I can see, most of the big changes are accelerations of trends that were already visible. Take six of them - a short thread. @CER_EU /1 There was already talk of de-globalisation and on-shoring. Now worries about security of supply of key drugs and bits of medical equipment have reinforced the notion that individual countries or the EU as a whole need to be more self-sufficient./2