If you're going to opine on the Roman Catholic Diocese opinion, do yourself a favor and read the actual per curiam opinion, and not just Gorsuch's (non-binding, solo) concurrence.
In particular, the per curiam suggests pretty clearly that you can, in fact, regulate churches during COVID. In particular, you seem to be able to tie attendance to the size of the facility. 2/
It seems fairly obvious that the danger in, say, St. Patrick's Cathedral is roughly the same whether you allow 10 or 25 or 50 people to worship. That probably isn't true of the neighborhood chapel. 3/
(As an aside, the observation that the 10-person cap could exclude women from attending some Orthodox services altogether, given the requirement in some for 10 men to be present to begin services) 4/
Regardless, the other major implication of the decision is that churches are essential businesses which, given the whole free exercise clause thingie, seems obviously correct. 5/
Cutting off religious service is at the core of free exercise of religion. It's the equivalent of shuttering women's health facilities or printing presses. Doesn't mean you can never do it, just means you need a really good reason. 6/
And the Court seems to think that a global pandemic can be a really good reason! (see tweets 2 and 3). Under this decision, though, you can't take a blunderbuss approach to churches and treat them differently than other businesses. 7/
Gorsuch makes the (gratuitous and counterproductive) reference to picking up a bottle of wine or buying a bike. Again, Gorsuch's opinion is just his, and no one else joins it. It's not what "the Court" says (that might be the opinion that translates to "by the court"). 8/
Gorsuch, incidentally, might be on stronger ground referencing the *workers* in the wine/bike shop, but he doesn't. Regardless, the per curiam avoids this and constrains itself to some reasonable comparisons: acupuncturists, campgrounds, garages, factories etc. 9/
Especially since we, somewhat famously, have had outbreaks at kids' camps and in factories. The per curiam also notes that in orange zones, churches get treated worse than non-essential businesses, which can set their own occupancy limits. 10/
*On top of all this* the Court says you *still* might be able to shut churches down at some point, if there were not less restrictive measures available to do so. Like tying occupancy to size. 11/
In short, this opinion at best seems to stand for the proposition that "even during a pandemic, you have to be very careful with how you treat core First Amendment guarantees," which seems quite reasonable. 12/12

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More from @SeanTrende

9 Nov
For those asking, here's deaths: Image
New England 2/ Image
Mid-Atl 3/ Image
Read 11 tweets
9 Nov
So with the election over, maybe I'll go back to the COVID data beat . . . eh on second thought who wants to talk 2022? Image
New England. 2/ Image
Mid-Atlantic 3/ Image
Read 11 tweets
3 Nov
As it turns out, Lindsay Graham's struggles in SC are a nice illustration of the ways that political coalitions work, and the difficulty building "coalitions of everyone." 1/

realclearpolitics.com/articles/2020/…
Bringing the upcountry into the Republican coalition seemed to lock down the state, but it also changed the demands on Republican officeholders who had to respond to new voters. 2/
As it turns out, centuries-old geopolitical divides in SC were not erased, and this shift impacted the views that members of the old political coalition had of the Republican Party. 3/
Read 4 tweets
30 Oct
Smoldering hot take: Because of runoff dynamics, Schumer has a better position of being majority leader under Trump than under Biden.
So this certainly isn't something I care enough about to go to the mattresses over, especially since we aren't living in Rick & Morty (unfortunately) and don't get to explore other timelines. But let me explain: 1/
Let's first assume that if Trump wins the two Georgia Senate seats are very, very difficult holds. He isn't on the ballot, but an African-American and a suburban-friendly candidate are. And suburbs probably continue their leftward march if Trump is POTUS. 2/
Read 7 tweets
28 Oct
I agree in a sense and disagree in a sense. Early voting is tough to read precisely because we're missing three parts of a four part equation: D/R/I breakdown on Election Day, D/R/I voting patterns early, and D/R/I voting patterns on Election Day. 1/
So in that sense I agree. My hesitation is that D/R/I in registration isn't necessarily the same as in the exit polls, and isn't necessarily the same as in all horse race polls, which makes the apples-to-apples trickier. 2/
For me, at least, I've always said that Jon Ralston was the one exception to my "don't pay any attention to early voting numbers," because of his track record and the fact that he knows voting in that state better than just about anyone in America. 3/
Read 4 tweets
26 Oct
I once believed this first sentence. I don't anymore. To be sure, I love the "but Rubio had a boat" joke, but for serious analysis: Aside from Christie exposing Rubio as an empty suit, there's no way Rubio generates the blue collar support in key states that Trump generated. 1/
And you can't underestimate the difficulties that Trump presented for D strategists. The two basic lines of attack that Democrats had deployed against Republican nominees for 24 years were (a) he wants to kill your social security/Medicare and (b) he's a crypto-theocrat. 2/
Trump made (a) more difficult and as for (b), c'mon. As to any of the other Rs, *especially* Rubio? I reverse my basic take on Bernie: It's 1 thing to have an R attack ad run against you, it's another to run on an R attack ad. 3/
Read 9 tweets

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