Thread by @SeanTrende

I once believed this first sentence. I don't anymore. To be sure, I love the "but Rubio had a boat" joke, but for serious analysis: Aside from Christie exposing Rubio as an empty suit, there's no way Rubio generates the blue collar support in key states that Trump generated. 1/

https://twitter.com/NumbersMuncher/status/1320768531227643904

And you can't underestimate the difficulties that Trump presented for D strategists. The two basic lines of attack that Democrats had deployed against Republican nominees for 24 years were (a) he wants to kill your social security/Medicare and (b) he's a crypto-theocrat. 2/

Trump made (a) more difficult and as for (b), c'mon. As to any of the other Rs, *especially* Rubio? I reverse my basic take on Bernie: It's 1 thing to have an R attack ad run against you, it's another to run on an R attack ad. 3/

Overall, Rubio was a recipe for modestly improving upon the Romney coalition. He flips FL and probably NC/OH, maybe NV. That almost wins, but that only counts in horseshoes. 4/4

Oh what the hell, I'm not done. What hardcore NeverTrumpers will have to come to grips with after Trump probably loses is that there is no hunger for their brand of politics. 5/

The "'be the world's policeman'/cut social security/worst-of-all-possible-worlds-by-being socially-conservative-but-not-really-meaning it" coalition just isn't there. As I've said before, it gets the votes of three guys in think tank cubicles, two of whom voted for Johnson. 6/

The idea that "smashing Trump means we lay the foundation for the re-emergence of Bushism" is simply delusional, period full-stop. That managed to get a wartime president 285 Electoral Votes during an economic expansion. In short: 7/

Like it or not, a successful R party is going to include some degree of economic and cultural populism. That's not a GOP I can see myself voting for anytime soon, but it's a GOP that at least has a shot at winning. 8/

And to be clear: This more populist GOP would be much more viable if it didn't have to deal with the stink of Trump himself (assuming he loses). It should have been one of the more mainstream candidates in 2016 running on this type of platform. But ¯\_(ツ)_/¯. 9/9