More from @magi_jay

Mangy Jay

@magi_jay

28 Nov

https://twitter.com/PostOpinions/status/1332692621052039172

This piece is not great. The data analysis is problematic. And not just in terms of white women, but also in terms of minority voters, which is an even more serious issue.

https://twitter.com/PostOpinions/status/1332692621052039172

Let's look at the more serious issue first: The claim that Trump made gains with Black and Latino voters. The evidence that we have at this time is spotty, but I have seen very little that suggests Trump made gains with Black voters.

Trump does appear to have made gains w/ some sub segments of Latino voters, specifically voters of Cuban descent in Florida. Lenz correctly notes that Latinos are not a monolith, but then goes on to treat them as a monolith by extrapolating the S. FL gains to all Latinos.

Read 15 tweets

Mangy Jay

@magi_jay

25 Nov

https://twitter.com/sahilkapur/status/1331610282037182467

Just a quick fact check, here. This is not intended to defend the Obama admin's full legacy which is worthy of criticism in some areas & praise in others.

When deportations went up, Mayorkas was Director of USCIS, which is in charge of visas, green cards, etc, not deportations.

https://twitter.com/sahilkapur/status/1331610282037182467

Mayorkas was Dep. Director of DHS in Obama's 2nd term, during which time he implemented DACA and deportations went down. This was due in large part to decreases in interior removals, which went on to increase under Trump

In any case, the Obama/Biden admin's record is very mixed, but, in terms of Mayorkas, his own tenure as Dep Dir of DHS is one that is marked by the rapid implementation of DACA, as well as a strong decline in interior deportations (individuals who are living in the U.S.)

Read 4 tweets

Mangy Jay

@magi_jay

25 Nov

Many of the post-coup-attempt takes are aggravating straw men that serve to minimize just how historically dangerous Trump's actions were. There were a range of reactions to Trump's behavior, including, "This is extremely unlikely to succeed, but still damaging to our democracy."

I was always confident Trump couldn't succeed b/c of our margins across multiple states. If we had won by a slim margin in a single state, we may have been in a very different position today. We need to be aware of this fact. All of the "LOL you goofballs" takes obscure it.

Also, something historic happened, and, again, it was historically *dangerous*. An incumbent president attempted to use his power to interfere with election results. He didn't *just* go to court. He directly intervened in states.

Read 5 tweets

Mangy Jay

@magi_jay

24 Nov

A big compromise the GOP is seeking on any COVID relief bill is their desire to protect employers from liability. If you think that compromise is worthwhile in order to get some financial assistance to individuals, you need to say so.

There is no way we get everything we want out of compromising with republicans. Hopefully, we win the two GA Senate races but, if we don't, the next two years will be two years of compromise by necessity. People need to be clear about what they will/won't give up.

Also republicans want to give people far fewer UI benefits than were given in the Spring. Do you think that Dems should take that deal in order to get people *some* relief? Okay, that's not an unreasonable position. But you have to be clear about it.

Read 4 tweets

Mangy Jay

@magi_jay

24 Nov

I think Rahm Emanuel's appointment to anything would be so terrible that it's fine to exercise some preventative outrage. That said, I think it's important to note that Emanuel is in the news b/c he is lobbying for the positions & also the media likes us to get mad about things

"Emanuel is lobbying for Transportation Secretary" was the 1st story (Intercept, Nov 17th), which then became "Emanuel is being considered according to people familiar," (Nov 20th) which then became "Emanuel might be Trade representative" (Chicago paywalled press)