Thread by @chrischirp

THREAD on new tiers & some perspective:

Lots of discussion over fairness of tier allocation and "balance" between economy and lives.

Let's remember where we were a few months ago...

Over the summer we were average about 10 new cases / 100K people / week. Quarantine from foreign destinations was triggered if they were above 20/100K cases. The *lowest* area in mainland England right now is at 59/100K (Cornwall). Almost everywhere is over 100/100K.

The rule of 6 was brought in across England on 14th September. Manchester went into tough restrictons on 16th Sept with case rate of 100/100K. From September to November the govt was trying to "balance" the economy and lives - against scientific advice to lockdown.

They tried all kinds of complicated measures designed to keep businesses open and covid in check. It didn't work.

The week to 14th September we had 75 deaths within 28 days of +ve covid test in England. In last 7 days it's 2,831.

The week to 14th September we had 18,635 cases. In the week to 5th Nov (lockdown2) we had 139,100. Hospital Covid occupancy is 80% of the April peak and admissions are still about 1000 a day.

So... cases and hospital admissions are now coming down which is excellent. BUT almost everywhere is still much higher than we were in mid Sept. It's not "fixed". The new tiers are trying to open some things while keeping things in right direction (DOWN).

This is hard! and it sucks. And if we had a better test, trace and isolate system it would be much easier. But we don't. And until we do, restrictions are necessary and they need to be tougher than pre lockdown because pre lockdown wasn't working!

the summary is that things got badly out of control in Sept & Oct, and we still have a long way to go... /END