This is going to be a very dark and tragic winter — especially tragic because so many Americans are going to die unnecessarily 1/ nytimes.com/2020/11/27/hea…
We've known since the early days of the pandemic that it was crucial to flatten the curve to avoid overloading the health care system 2/ nytimes.com/article/flatte…
And the case for flattening the curve is especially strong now that we know that a vaccine is on the way: at this point an infection postponed for a few months may well be an infection avoided 3/
So refusing to take measures to limit the spread of the pandemic now — or, in the case of the Supreme Court, blocking states from acting responsibly — is basically a decision to kill people 4/

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More from @paulkrugman

27 Nov
So Trump lost, but we're still talking about why so many people voted for him. And story seems to be that millions thought "We feel disrespected by liberal elites, who think we're stupid. So we're going to own them by ... 1/
voting for a corrupt, dishonest, incompetent guy who barely conceals his contempt for his own supporters." I honestly have no idea how we're supposed to deal with this 2/
To say that many Trump supporters basically engaged in a massive self-own sounds condescending; yet what could be more condescending than pretending that this isn't exactly what happened? 3/
Read 5 tweets
26 Nov
The first major decision from the Trump-packed court — and, naturally, it will kill people 1/ nytimes.com/2020/11/26/us/…
The bad logic is obvious. Suppose I adhere to a religion whose rituals include dumping neurotoxins into public reservoirs. Does the principle of religious freedom give me the right to do that? 2/
Freedom of belief, yes; the right to hurt other people in tangible ways — which large gatherings in a pandemic definitely do — no. 3/
Read 4 tweets
26 Nov
And now for something almost completely different: Max Roser has a beautiful post about the Black Death. And no, that's not a contradiction 1/ ourworldindata.org/breaking-the-m…
Roser points out and documents something I've often said, but with much less data: Malthus was right! That is, until roughly a century before he wrote, the pressure of population on land always drove living standards to the edge of subsistence 2/
There were probably interludes when this wasn't true — the economy of ancient Rome may have temporarily broken out of the Malthusian trap, with productivity rising along with population 3/ books.google.com/books/about/Th…
Read 6 tweets
25 Nov
I missed this, from Adam Posen, about how we should stop thinking of Japan as a cautionary tale and learn lessons from its successes. Completely agree 1/ ft.com/content/f478f5…
Back in the 90s some of us looked at Japan and worried that the rest of us could experience similar problems 2/ brookings.edu/bpea-articles/…
Which indeed we did. And here's the thing: we handled those problems worse, turning to fiscal austerity much too soon and experiencing mass unemployment in a way the Japanese never did 3/
Read 5 tweets
21 Nov
A wonkish thread on how destructive Mnuchin's decision to terminate emergency lending programs could be, even though those programs have been lightly used so far. 1/ nytimes.com/2020/11/20/opi…
When I think about these programs, my main analogy is the eurozone crisis of 2011-13 — a crisis that was resolved by a promise to lend if necessary, even though no actual lending took place 2/
At the time, borrowing costs for southern European nations were soaring, and default seemed imminent. But the Belgian economist Paul De Grauwe argued that solvency wasn't really the issue 3/ voxeu.org/article/managi…
Read 12 tweets
20 Nov
A bit more on Mnuchin's sabotage effort; it's helpful to know the context in which that money was made available in the first place 1/ nytimes.com/2020/11/19/bus…
One of the great fears when the scope of the pandemic became apparent was that it would metastasize into a financial crisis too — and in fact it started to, with 2008-type surges in yield spreads 2/
Fed intervention, and even more important, the promise of more intervention if needed, calmed the markets. But it could happen again — after all, we seem headed for a virus outbreak worse than in the spring 3/
Read 4 tweets

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