1/ Thread: Investing vs Political Truths
I vividly remember on my 20th birthday I promised myself by the time I am 30, I will have a very clear view on my political philosophy.
In two months, I will be 30.
I vividly remember on my 20th birthday I promised myself by the time I am 30, I will have a very clear view on my political philosophy.
In two months, I will be 30.
2/ Not only am I infinitely less certain, I have given up on my hope altogether that I will have any definite and static view ever.
Last year, I came up with a project for myself. I would pick a deeply divisive political topic and approach the topic like I approach a stock.
Last year, I came up with a project for myself. I would pick a deeply divisive political topic and approach the topic like I approach a stock.
3/ I would study the topic from both parties' perspective, read widely and deeply (when necessary), and then write an essay on my pov.
I even let some friends and acquaintances know about this project. Some of them seemed really curious, and told me they would love to read it.
I even let some friends and acquaintances know about this project. Some of them seemed really curious, and told me they would love to read it.
4/ So I picked a topic I thought was relatively easy to take a side and started my research.
I read for a few days, and was completely blown away by the complexity. When I moved away from Strawman arguments and focused just on Steelman arguments, I struggled to pick a side.
I read for a few days, and was completely blown away by the complexity. When I moved away from Strawman arguments and focused just on Steelman arguments, I struggled to pick a side.
5/ I then realized even if I pick a side, I may never know whether I picked the "right" side.
While the market may not have the best scorecard at any point of time, over the long term it tends to lead you to truth.
While the market may not have the best scorecard at any point of time, over the long term it tends to lead you to truth.
6/ If you are bearish on $AMZN from IPO to today every year, it's time you stop looking at that company.
In politics, the truth may not only fail to emerge in decades, but it may never definitively appear. It may always be open to interpretation.
In politics, the truth may not only fail to emerge in decades, but it may never definitively appear. It may always be open to interpretation.
7/ In investing, if I say I have no opinion on $TSLA, people readily accept that as genuine lack of opinion and not categorize me as a "closeted" bull or bear.
Politics is usually not so gracious.
Politics is usually not so gracious.
8/ If you are surrounded by only one type of political adherents, and tell them you have "no" opinion on a viscerally divisive topic, they don't think it's because it's outside of your circle of competence, rather it's because you are on the "other" side.
9/ I also just didn't feel the skin in the game.
e.g. If I don't think M4A is the right policy and it turns out that would actually be the best policy forward, I may not pay any price for believing the wrong thing. I may be able to just afford private insurance my whole life.
e.g. If I don't think M4A is the right policy and it turns out that would actually be the best policy forward, I may not pay any price for believing the wrong thing. I may be able to just afford private insurance my whole life.
10/ Finally, if you are emotional about a stock and end up losing money, you iterate and try to learn from your mistakes.
In politics, it's the opposite. The more passionate you are, the more vocal you are, and the less incentive you have to iterate and change your mind.
In politics, it's the opposite. The more passionate you are, the more vocal you are, and the less incentive you have to iterate and change your mind.
End/ I quit the project, and decided to focus on just stocks.
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