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28 Nov, 8 tweets, 4 min read
New paper on SSP/RCP scenarios by O'Neill et al

In this short 🧵 I'll focus on its interesting review of SSP literature 2014-2019

nature.com/articles/s4155…
O'Neill et al identify 715 papers 2014-2019 that used SSP scenarios (data = ciesin.columbia.edu/data/ssp-liter…)

Within these 715 papers are 3,347 applications of SSP-RCP combinations, as shown below

Shaded in grey are SSP-RCP combinations that are deemed "unlikely" by scenario creators
Within each SSP RCP8.5 is a favorite (surprise!) as we have documented in our more extensive literature review (papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf…)

There is an incredible & troubling amount of study devoted to "unlikely" scenarios (SSPs 1-4 & RCP8.5)
Across all 3,347 uses of SSP scenarios these are the five most common

SSP2-85 (8.0%) unlikely
SSP2-45 (8.0%)
SSP5-85 (7.6%)
SSP3-85 (7.5%) unlikely
SSP2-26 (7.2%)

Overall 29.2% of applications use RCP8.5, making it the most used across SSPs
The literature review in O'Neill et al confirms the analysis of Pielke & @jritch which found RCP8.5 (pre and post SSPs) to be overwhelmingly and improperly favored in climate research and assessment

Prevalence in recent assessments in table below
Interestingly, the press release from IIASA on O'Neill et al has a stronger warning about misuse of RCP8.5 than does the paper itself
iiasa.ac.at/web/home/about…
O'Neill et al do a nice job identifying serious issues with the current scenario architecture & discuss the challenges presented due to the needs if climate modeling driving the process (something discussed at length in Pielke & @jritch)
O'Neill et al 2020 is a welcome contribution to the growing literature identifying serious issues in the scenario framework that underlies much of climate research and assessment

For a deeper dive on how we got here and what might be done see: papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf…

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More from @RogerPielkeJr

Roger Pielke Jr. Profile picture
29 Nov
Thoughtful thread argument by @Scienceofsport (as usual) on gender categorization issues in sport

But for me, issues related to female athletes w/ unique biology have no place in debates over trans athletes Who change categories — this always needs to be stated up front
While acknowledging these are different issues, @Scienceofsport then lumps them right back together via a “premise or physiological principle”

I reject such a principle

Here’s another one: “anyone born female, raised female, in sport as a female is female”

No physiology needed Image
Appeals to physiology reflect an essentialist argument that sport categories exist to segregate men & women based on immutable biological realities

Such arguments fall apart quickly

Eg, Female DSD athletes w/ high T are “biological males” at 400m & “biological females” at 200m
Read 5 tweets
Roger Pielke Jr. Profile picture
23 Nov
Covid testing prioritization as value metric

By this metric, who are the most valued people on my campus?

"Student-athletes are tested six days each week – all but their mandatory day off – and sometimes get tested twice in a day"
buffzone.com/2020/11/21/how…
College football is important in American culture & as a business

I used to think its contradictions could be reconciled with university missions

No longer

Football can associate w/ universities but should no longer pursue the fiction of being a part of the university mission
You know who got this right?
University of Chicago 1939
washingtonpost.com/sports/2019/08…
Read 6 tweets
Roger Pielke Jr. Profile picture
12 Nov
One problem in the communication of climate science is that "experts climate communicators" make quick judgments for reporters on deadline on papers they have not read & data they have not analyzed and then, when paper is shown to be fatally flawed, defend their original comments
Example: A scientist in this @capitalweather @washingtonpost article cites hurricanes Michael (2018) and Ike (2008) to emphasize the results of the paper & both of these storms decayed FASTER than the average rate reported in study

Bad science all around

washingtonpost.com/weather/2020/1…
Difficult to believe, but in this brief quote ALL SEVEN empirical claims by this scientist are just false

Don't take it from me (or him) just check the data yourself

Hurricanes are climate catnip but that doesn't mean we should accept bad science
/[steps off soapbox] Image
Read 4 tweets
Roger Pielke Jr. Profile picture
9 Nov
A design flaw is revealed here

The management structure of US Global Change Research Program has it overseen by a subcommittee of the White House NSTC

That means that its leadership is -- in effect -- politically appointed even if they are not technically political appointees
However it has come about that the leader of the next US national climate assessment will work from an agency as a career scientists (not politically appointed & not working from White House) is good news for the integrity of the NCA as an advisory mechanism
Climate science has been overseen from the White House since the 1980s & the US NCA since the 1990s

On that early history see:
Pielke Jr 2000. Policy history of the US global change research program: Part I. Administrative development. GEC 10:9-25. sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/admin/publicat…
Read 8 tweets
Roger Pielke Jr. Profile picture
30 Oct
🧵
A new RCP8.5 critique published today
Pedersen et al adds to @matthewgburgess et al & @hausfath @Peters_Glen
It is a valuable contribution to growing literature documenting why it's inappropriate to use RCP8.5 as a reference scenario in climate research
nature.com/articles/s4324…
There now appears to be a growing consensus that RCP8.5 (and by extension SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5) are inappropriate when used as reference scenarios (for definition of what a "reference scenario" means see @jritch &I --> osf.io/preprints/soca…)
There is a bit of unfortunate historical revisionism in the paper

Compare Pedersen et al (left) with the original description of RCP8.5 in Riahi et al 2011 (right)

The use of RCP8.5 as a reference scenario can be found in thousands and thousands of papers, with more added daily
Read 6 tweets
Roger Pielke Jr. Profile picture
29 Oct
🧵Thread
Initial reactions to Blake Leeper CAS ruling

Summary:
Leeper lost his appeal to run in Olympics but World Athletics (IAAF) lost the case & will completely reshape possibilities for athletes with prosthetics to run in elite competition

cc:
@Dr_Weyand
@Scienceofsport
First, this case hinges on rules, processes and science
On the latter it is remarkable to see IAAF demanding access to data, when they refused (to this day) to release data in their research re: Semanya
Similarly, I had a good chuckle seeing IAAF emphasize peer review (Semenya research wasn't) & the necessity of data release for CAS to do its job
In this case the data was shared by Leeper's team, in Semenya case IAAF never shared its data
Read 20 tweets

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