Share this page!

David Henig Profile picture
Twitter logo
29 Nov, 4 tweets, 2 min read
This doesn't match what the EU has said. Again, maybe it will be right and a deal on fish will unlock a UK EU deal. Or maybe it is wrong but the UK side has decided fish is the most explicable reason for no deal. We simply don't know, and have to be a bit sceptical.
If the UK side are understating the difficulties of level playing field and governance in EU talks, thinking them on the verge of resolution because the EU will back down, that would be a repeat of something we have seen in these talks several times before.
Still, ultimately, this.
The FT's Brexit reporting guru concurs...

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
　

Keep Current with David Henig

David Henig Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @DavidHenigUK

David Henig Profile picture
30 Nov
Right, I promised what is a 'thin' FTA and why is the UK-EU not 'thin'. Here it is, not exactly @Usherwood class of picture, but will have to do for now. First, a very rough classification of Free Trade Agreements. Reduce tariffs, go a bit further than WTO is the summary. Image
Thus for example a UK-US FTA is likely to be mostly in the middle box. Not much extra market access from the US. Then we call it ambitious.

But with the EU? Most likely, from what we know, across the standard and enhanced boxes. Image
Final, most important point. Free Trade Agreements are nothing like a Customs Union or Single Market in terms of eliminating barriers to trade, however ambitious. That's why so many countries have chosen to go further. The UK is unusual in choosing to increase trade barriers.
Read 4 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
30 Nov
Why it isn't possible to claim to be a free trade champion while significantly increasing trade barriers with your largest trade partner part nnn.
Next week again.

In other news it appears the Prime Minister has yet to make a choice between a deal and not. Don't worry PM, only tens of thousands of jobs riding on it... in.reuters.com/article/britai…
To be clear, no deal won't be 'accidental'. It will be either because the Prime Minister couldn't make up his mind whether to go for a deal that would cause problems in his party or no deal, or because he chooses no-deal. A deal is there if he wants it.
Read 6 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
28 Nov
Withrespect (or not) to the Labour Party's decision making processes, backing an EU FTA should be one of the easiest decisions they will make.

Far harder to decide if they are prepared to propose to challenge the government's approach to "sovereignty" theguardian.com/politics/2020/…
Why is an EU deal so easy to back - because having no trade deal with neighbours is so obviously nonsensical, something that practically every country in the world has recognised. That should also cover a no-deal policy. But will Labour go further? theguardian.com/commentisfree/…
Part of the UK government's trade policy is to have the closest relations with majority white English speaking countries however far away. There are reasons - to take on the EU's regulatory power, join a new club. But most countries prefer deeper relations close to home.
Read 9 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
27 Nov
As Charles has previously noted, I don't share the optimism he expresses here! Some technical progress doesn't I think make up for serious political and philosophical difficulties - on both sides. A big jump to a deal both parties can sell - achievable but very difficult.
But never say never. Keep an eye out on one of Westminster's leading establishments...
The other part of the Brexit jigsaw. Same broad issue, technically achievable (though hard), politically extremely delicate particularly on the UK side. And mid-December completion is cutting things extremely fine.
Read 4 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
27 Nov
So still no progress, no walking away, and no agreement too late apparently for implementation on January 1.

A complete mess.
"Next week" has been the key week for Brexit talks for several weeks now.

If there was an agreement struck towards the end of next week there would be <20 working days for legal scrub, translation, discussion, ratification, implementation.

Still this @ShonaMurray_ and it looks like the EU are happy to facilitate UK indecision such that both sides can be blamed by business with insufficient time to prepare.
Read 16 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
26 Nov
Either

1/ How do we cope with access to fishing waters in no-deal;
(see e.g. ec.europa.eu/info/sites/inf…)
or
2/ How far can we go in a final deal haggle

Which means

We're still no closer to knowing whether deal or no-deal
There are many reasons in a negotiation, at this stage, you may want an urgent meeting. Let us say the UK offered the EU a final deal, same fish for a transitional period, no further on Level Playing Field. The EU say no. Need to clear with Member States?
That's just an illustration though, we don't know, until one of the well placed folk gets to find out what's happening. But it does feel like, finally, the next few days will see a deal / no deal decision point on UK-EU talks.
Read 6 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

Like this author's thread?

Get email notifications when new thread is out from this Author!

Check out other threads from this Author!

Read all threads by @DavidHenigUK