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26 Nov, 6 tweets, 2 min read
Either

1/ How do we cope with access to fishing waters in no-deal;
(see e.g. ec.europa.eu/info/sites/inf…)
or
2/ How far can we go in a final deal haggle

Which means

We're still no closer to knowing whether deal or no-deal
There are many reasons in a negotiation, at this stage, you may want an urgent meeting. Let us say the UK offered the EU a final deal, same fish for a transitional period, no further on Level Playing Field. The EU say no. Need to clear with Member States?
That's just an illustration though, we don't know, until one of the well placed folk gets to find out what's happening. But it does feel like, finally, the next few days will see a deal / no deal decision point on UK-EU talks.
An alternate theory. Equally plausible. In which case the EU Fisheries Ministers have to sign off on reduced access to UK waters.
On balance, an emergency meeting of fisheries ministers at this point more likely good than bad news for a UK-EU deal. As is radio silence, for a change, from London. But a number of parts to a deal, and PM may still not have decided
And now a conflicting report. Aagh, this is what happens towards the end of negotiations.

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More from @DavidHenigUK

David Henig Profile picture
28 Nov
Withrespect (or not) to the Labour Party's decision making processes, backing an EU FTA should be one of the easiest decisions they will make.

Far harder to decide if they are prepared to propose to challenge the government's approach to "sovereignty" theguardian.com/politics/2020/…
Why is an EU deal so easy to back - because having no trade deal with neighbours is so obviously nonsensical, something that practically every country in the world has recognised. That should also cover a no-deal policy. But will Labour go further? theguardian.com/commentisfree/…
Part of the UK government's trade policy is to have the closest relations with majority white English speaking countries however far away. There are reasons - to take on the EU's regulatory power, join a new club. But most countries prefer deeper relations close to home.
Read 9 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
27 Nov
As Charles has previously noted, I don't share the optimism he expresses here! Some technical progress doesn't I think make up for serious political and philosophical difficulties - on both sides. A big jump to a deal both parties can sell - achievable but very difficult.
But never say never. Keep an eye out on one of Westminster's leading establishments...
The other part of the Brexit jigsaw. Same broad issue, technically achievable (though hard), politically extremely delicate particularly on the UK side. And mid-December completion is cutting things extremely fine.
Read 4 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
27 Nov
So still no progress, no walking away, and no agreement too late apparently for implementation on January 1.

A complete mess.
"Next week" has been the key week for Brexit talks for several weeks now.

If there was an agreement struck towards the end of next week there would be <20 working days for legal scrub, translation, discussion, ratification, implementation.

Still this @ShonaMurray_ and it looks like the EU are happy to facilitate UK indecision such that both sides can be blamed by business with insufficient time to prepare. Image
Read 10 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
26 Nov
The latest development in an 'anti-any-EU-deal' campaign that has been growing among Brexit circles in recent weeks. Sovereignty so defined as to require the Northern Ireland Protocol to be rescinded in a deal, therefore a test which won't be met.
A big problem for the PM is no trade deal wouldn't be the end of the Brexit ultra revolt, as the next stage will be to seek a UK renunciation of the Withdrawal Agreement, or at the very least non implementation of the Northern Irelant protocol.
So in that decision which the PM has to take imminently he has to decide whether to side with the Brexit ultras on full collision course with EU and US, side in part for no-deal but quietly implement the NI protocol, or split and do the deal.
Read 9 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
26 Nov
Remind me how President Trump's focus on the US trade deficit with China went?

Also a single market is not in fact an FTA (that will be Customs union).

I know its tempting to run away from a world that doesn't give you what you want, but not particularly mature.
This. And I'm afraid it does matter, because no country can afford petulance and ignorance to be national policy.
It is notable how little trade has been mentioned around the spending review. A government that seems to know little of how global trade works, in part due to four years of listening to those who invented their own worlds to claim no economic cost to their preferred hard Brexit.
Read 5 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
25 Nov
Look at the date of this story about no GB-EU sausage trade after Jan 1. Then wonder what happened next. If the expectation was the EU would change long-standing food import regulations, on what basis? (metro.co.uk/2020/02/18/bri…)
Simply - January 1 is the biggest one day change in a country's trading relations in history.

On average, every day, the UK trades £2 billion of goods and services with the EU and closely connected countries.

The rules covering virtually all of that trade will change.
I reckon the UK-EU trade flow is the second largest globally. Whatever happens with deal or no deal, the change from permissive to rules based trade is going to have a huge effect (and if it didn't all trade liberalisation is worthless).
Read 5 tweets

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