To follow the article, here's a great explainer thread about our piece by @wormmaps about the science of estimating how many uncounted parasites there may be (including the Brothers Grimm & uncountable things):
In the @guardian piece, I love this quote about entire unknown worlds:
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But there's also another aspect (not fully address in the @guardian piece) which ties into my work on international law, health, biodiversity & access to genetic resources and equitable benefits sharing.
Essentially:
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We should 1) stop "exploration narratives" (eg virus (or parasite) hunters) which are deeply entrenched in colonial views (pervading even #covid19 origin responses).
2) wealthy countries must provide financial and technical support to examine *existing collections* and
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3) ensure locally led research into parasite priorities (inc. human & animal health) and
4) comply w international law, eg Nagoya Protocol, to address historical (& continuing) scientific injustice.
This is a huge drop of China #COVID19 documents from @npwcnn. Unfortunately, this leak confirms points I & other China, health, law folks have said since Jan.
I'm going to summarize some of the key findings in 🧵below
Finding 1: Hubei (Wuhan's province) had 20 times increase in "influenza cases" in Dec. High number of "unknown cause" is flag: flu relatively easy to confirm if tested. Also not clear how many confirmed influenza, & if so, if/what samples or GSD was shared w @WHO GISRS.
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Finding 2: signif underreporting of daily new cases & deaths in Feb & Mar. If you recall, this was a live issue at that time w reclassification of case definitions by Chinese health officials, but report indicates deliberate politicization of data to present optimism.
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Failures in US leadership mean Americans face tough decisions with Festive Season. In Jan, China faced similar choices but w more uncertainty).
A short thread comparing & drawing lessons between:
– January China 🧧Lunar New Year🧧
– November United States 🦃Thanksgiving🦃
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Starting with some case count comparisons between Lunar New Year in China & now in the US:
– 254.3 cases per day: China (Jan 25)
– 135,714.3 cases per day: US (Nov 12)
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Much focus on China's success has been on lockdowns: a time when we didn't know much, didn't have widely available testing & govt support to ensure socio-economic protections. Now, lockdowns can be avoided with strong public health & health systems.
Why did we write this? In light of COVID19, suggestions to reform the mechanism for declaring a public health emergency of international concern (PHEIC) have gained renewed attention & political will. Any substantial reform of PHEICs will likely require amendment to the IHR (2/7)
Already, multiple international and regional processes to review global COVID-19 response, including the operation of the IHR, are underway, including @TheIndPanel, @WHO Health Emergency Program IOAC & the IHR Review Committee.
(3/7)
"The achilles heel of international environmental law... is a lack of enforcement mechanisms, and human rights overcomes [that challenge]" David Boyd #PandemicRecovery@Cambridge_Uni@BennettInst
Dame Barbara Stocking: "What about the next pandemic?"
"We are pressing to have a UN Convention on Pandemics as @WHO does not have the mandate: Member States do not allow it to have an inspector function or doing what is needed to be done" #PandemicRecovery@Cambridge_Uni
In past pandemic planning scenarios, we war game what would happen if the president and VP are both unable to fulfill their constitutional duties due to an infectious disease.
The Presidency, the Agencies, and Congress all have clear processes (set out below) but...
(1/5)
Presidential Succession Act (1947) sets out order:
1⃣Vice President (M. Pence)
2⃣Speaker of the House (N. Pelosi)
3⃣Speaker pro tempore (C. Grassley)
Then Cabinet members on dept creation order starting with4⃣State (M. Pompeo)5⃣Treasury (S. Mnuchin)
(2/5)
⏹️Congress⏹️
Senate: filled by appointment
House: filled by election (rules set by states)
Quorum is necessary for many activities: in light of 9/11, in 2003, 1st Continuity of Congress Report called for a Constitutional amendment to allow for temporary elections:
(3/5)
You can see the pattern of excess deaths match the movement of the pandemic across the US.
This suggests that official death counts may be substantially underestimating overall effects of #covid19: inc. deaths from SARS-CoV-2 & other causes linked to the pandemic.
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Accurate counts during epidemics are challenging: mortality from past pandemics (eg 1918 & 2009 flu) have been recalculated afterwards.
But this shows how critical accurate data reporting systems are & why Trump Admin's decisions on data are so worrying: wsj.com/articles/covid…