Here's a subject that will get some comments / questions
I may not reply to all of them because this is NOT technical analysis this is conceptual stuff
Firstly and most important: Credit Scores are NOT built for consumers
NOT AT ALL
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The single most important thing to understand about Credit Scores and Credit Reports is that they are solely designed for Lenders
Sure, Landlords and Insurance companies use them but they're for credit granters
Another shocker: Good and Bad score; not how we look at it
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We think: In or Out
Either the score qualifies for lending or not
A 900 score is meaningless, once the score passes 780 who cares
Because Score isn't subjective, its just 680 is pass for normal lending 600 is not
Below 450 will disqualifies for anything but private
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Because here's the key
Credit Scores are NOT about good or bad people
They are ONLY designed to estimate chance of default within 90 days
Statistically and historically scores over 780 don't ever default on mortgages, now in Canada maybe 1K will default but that's nothing
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Lenders only care about default potential: having to use Collection on the loan
That's it
And the system works WELL at that precise job, good for the public too, it makes lending cheaper by being efficient
Its NOT perfect
Its starts to go south when credit goes bad
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As @ScottTerrioHMA and @doughoyes will tell you, once missed payments and collections mount the information in Bureaus can get crappy, sometimes inaccurate because Collecters play games
Again, remember the Score is only about In or Out to us so 90 day missed payments = Out
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Couple other things
Credit Reports consumers order for themselves or as part of financial services offerings: mainly useless, its a novel to go into the reasons
Seeking advice to fix Credit? Meh, could be helpful but NEVER pay for it
You're told to avoid Credit pulls?
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Its BS, a trick from a high rate lender to discourage you from shopping for a better rate
Example: 860 score, 4 pulls in 2 weeks = 846 score, who cares!!
Sum up credit scores: a statistical tool for lenders
What drives scores up: use credit and pay to zero every month
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Don't miss any payments!
You will have a great score
Easier said than done
There are a ton of little details: New Canadians, people who pay cash alot, people trying to recover from credit problems, that's for another day
Bottom line: a tool for Lenders
Thats ALL
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The massive downturn in the Toronto condo market is documented everyday
The facts are just easy, Airbnb collapse, foreign University student collapse, downtown restaurant and hospitality worker renter exodus, flight from small living spaces
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It's a long list that radically reduces the number of renters and drives condo owners to seek freehold housing
Heck, we even have relentless addition of new condos from completing construction projects
The simple supply / demand math destroys value with no end in sight
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Well maybe a 2022 end in sight but 12 - 18 months of mayhem
Likely 25% - 35% down from peak condo pricing VERY dependent on product with the sub 500 sq ft product in real trouble
But will the contagion spread to Freehold: Towns, Semis and Detached?
Hey, I am not in the prediction business but I am in the observation business
Simple facts: downtown Toronto rents are falling steadily and if they continue to fall prices will errode
That's facts and math not prediction
And rents will fall
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This is simple stuff all Covid related
1) No foreign students, turns out this was big, rarely talked about and looks like they're gone till Fall 2021 2) No Airbnb, not just no tourists, no sporting events, weddings, proms huge list, Fall 2021 for return but slow even then
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3) Too many renters in Hospitality lost their jobs and moved back with parents or doubled with friends: Fall 2021 or never 4) For people with ongoing jobs, downtown offices empty, WFH but HATED cooped up experience, bought Towns or Detached likely NEVER back
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I have been Blocking folks lately over a general opposition to simple Covid measures
Anti Maskers, sorry, its the most minor inconvenience, you all put clothes on when you leave the house but the law in Ontario is that only shorts mandatory so?
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Really just Social Niceties and the mask is so easy, please just give anti masking a rest
If fun is made of the insanity of Trump holding huge rallies with unmasked participants who needs 25 replies about outside is fine and look at the BLM marches
Sweet Jaysus,
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Can't we just agree a political rally is not the same as desperately trying to put an end to senseless murder?
Or Strip Bars must stay open?
Or booze must be served till 2:00 AM or rights are being violated?
So much about the last 4 months in Canadian finance has been weird
In previous economic disasters those in trouble did a couple of things, some people sought insolvency protection and those with houses often refinanced to pay debt
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And in mortgage world refinance for folks with debt problems has effectively vanished
It is best observed among the companies who specialize in sub prime mortgage lending
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The federally licensed B lenders, the large and small residential Mortgage Investment Corps, right down to individuals who do private mortgages: all profoundly not busy