Anupam Gupta Profile picture
30 Nov, 14 tweets, 4 min read
What portfolio gives you sound 'sleep at night'? A portfolio that consists of great companies. How do you define great? Great financial performance because stock prices follow profits and cashflows.
What is great financial performance? India's nominal GDP growth is around 12% (7% real + 5% inflation) so a great company should be able to deliver around 10% growth *every year*. And...
...a great company should be able to recover its cost of capital. Capital is very expensive in India. Taking 10yr G-Sec rate of 7% + equity risk premium of 8% (5% global + 3% for India), you have CoC of 15%, year after year.
So, any company that delivers 10% revenue growth and 15% ROCE year after year for long periods of time - at least 10yrs - is a great company.
The idea of holding great stocks for long periods of time sounds very normal today but its origins go back to Robert Kirby and the Coffee Can story. PDF: csinvesting.org/wp-content/upl…
This was the construct for The Unusual Billionaires book, India's first deep investigation into corporate greatness. Saurabh @MarcellusInvest wrote this back in 2016: amazon.in/Unusual-Billio…
Why is a portfolio of great stocks important? because this portfolio can transform your personal finances and help you achieve very important goals in life.
India's savings are stuck in low-yielding physical assets. An RBI household survey estimates that 95% of the average Indian household's wealth is physical assets (real estate + gold): livemint.com/Opinion/u5gwrD…
In 2018, Saurabh @marcellusinvest wrote what is now India's largest selling book on personal investments 'Coffee Can Investing': amazon.in/Coffee-Can-Inv…
Follow the thought structure here. First, what are great companies, second, how can these great stocks transform your financial dreams. And finally - how can these lessons of greatness transform your lives?
Earlier this year, Saurabh @MarcellusInvest wrote The Victory Paradigm bringing this thought process to its logical end.
In this book, we researched the drivers of success in highly competitive industries and professions. We interviewed eight experts from varied fields and...
...developed the Simplicity Paradigm - a six-step framework that can help you achieve peak potential. Released in August, the book is in Amazon's best seller list: amazon.in/Victory-Projec…
So, for the best part of this decade, we've spent reesarching and writing about greatness- in corporates, in portfolios, and in people. The Victory Project is culmination of this research - hope you like it! Fin.

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More from @b50

6 Oct
I get the outrage against WhiteHat Jr but sorry guys. Society (us!) says:
IIT-IIM = success
Foreign education = success
Startups = success
Coding = success
Which parent doesn't want his/her kid to be successful?
Have you even seen the tons and tons of money that startups attract? And coding is critical in startups. Which parent doesn't want his/her kid to be successful?
Have you seen the huge amounts of success that Indian techies have in the US? Which parent doesn't want his/her kid to be successful?
Read 6 tweets
28 Sep
Liquidity, return of capital, return on capital are the three basic things that drive any investment decision. Hear me out.
Liquidity is access to your money when you want it 24x7. Examples: an FD is extremely liquid, a liquid fund takes one day, PPF is locked in, an investment in your friend's startup is locked in.
We underestimate liquidity; liquidity is critical to price discovery. Reliance's price is more reliable and therefore less prone to manipulation than, say, a smallcap stock with low float.
Read 14 tweets
16 Sep
Ok a quick thread on equity research since so many people have jumped into equities.
Good news? equity research today is more freely and more widely available than ever before. Bad news? most of it is mediocre. There's a reason why they're free.
There are plenty of blogs too that do a pretty good job of writing about stocks and markets and stuff. But they're a) not updated frequently b) full of intrusive ads c) not always high quality.
Read 11 tweets
12 Sep
So you shifted to stocks after you got frustrated with mutual funds? Ok, I hope you..
understood the difference between trading and investing, long term and short term, luck and skill
have a thoroughly and rigorously backtested system if you're a trader and a razor sharp crystal clear investment strategy if you're an investor.
Read 10 tweets
11 Sep
Finally a long read on Anders Tegnell!

ft.com/content/5cc92d…
this turned out to be a FANTASTIC read. Another level.
this right here, this is called thinking long term. Image
Read 4 tweets
11 Sep
6yrs completed in one of my SIPs, IRR of 1.5%. I can understand people's frustration with mutual funds. A thread.
I rarely track IRR of my SIPs, leave alone tweet about it. So why now? Two reasons.
First: because there's a trend of people leaving MFs for stocks. When I saw my account statement and randomly checked the IRR, this trend hit home.
Read 13 tweets

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