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30 Nov, 4 tweets, 3 min read
2020 Atlantic hurricane season ends today
Here are updated CONUS normalized losses through 2020
2020 ranks 15th of 121 years
Based on @JessicaWeinkle et al
nature.com/articles/s4189…
And CONUS landfalling hurricanes 1900-2020
Updated from @philklotzbach et al
journals.ametsoc.org/bams/article/9…
And CONUS landfalling major hurricanes 1900-2020
Updated from @philklotzbach et al
journals.ametsoc.org/bams/article/9…
And for readers preferring a different trend
CONUS landfalling hurricanes 1970-2020
Updated from @philklotzbach et al
journals.ametsoc.org/bams/article/9…

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More from @RogerPielkeJr

Roger Pielke Jr. Profile picture
30 Nov
🧵Allow me to debunk this proposal in the @WSJ to hamstring Pres Biden re-entry into Paris Climate Agreement

The proposal➡️ To prevent the Paris Climate Accord from taking on undue power, President Trump should let the Senate reject it, writes wsj.com/articles/how-t… via @WSJ
Pres Trump cannot submit Paris Agreement to the Senate for ratification because it is not a treaty, but instead an "executive agreement made pursuant to a treaty"

Treaty= Framework Convention on Climate Change (ratified Oct 1992 by U.S. Senate at request of Pres GHW Bush)
Upon entering the Paris Agreement in 2015, Pres Obama defined it as an "executive agreement"
Read 7 tweets
Roger Pielke Jr. Profile picture
29 Nov
Thoughtful thread argument by @Scienceofsport (as usual) on gender categorization issues in sport

But for me, issues related to female athletes w/ unique biology have no place in debates over trans athletes Who change categories — this always needs to be stated up front
While acknowledging these are different issues, @Scienceofsport then lumps them right back together via a “premise or physiological principle”

I reject such a principle

Here’s another one: “anyone born female, raised female, in sport as a female is female”

No physiology needed
Appeals to physiology reflect an essentialist argument that sport categories exist to segregate men & women based on immutable biological realities

Such arguments fall apart quickly

Eg, Female DSD athletes w/ high T are “biological males” at 400m & “biological females” at 200m
Read 5 tweets
Roger Pielke Jr. Profile picture
28 Nov
New paper on SSP/RCP scenarios by O'Neill et al

In this short 🧵 I'll focus on its interesting review of SSP literature 2014-2019

nature.com/articles/s4155…
O'Neill et al identify 715 papers 2014-2019 that used SSP scenarios (data = ciesin.columbia.edu/data/ssp-liter…)

Within these 715 papers are 3,347 applications of SSP-RCP combinations, as shown below

Shaded in grey are SSP-RCP combinations that are deemed "unlikely" by scenario creators
Within each SSP RCP8.5 is a favorite (surprise!) as we have documented in our more extensive literature review (papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf…)

There is an incredible & troubling amount of study devoted to "unlikely" scenarios (SSPs 1-4 & RCP8.5)
Read 8 tweets
Roger Pielke Jr. Profile picture
23 Nov
Covid testing prioritization as value metric

By this metric, who are the most valued people on my campus?

"Student-athletes are tested six days each week – all but their mandatory day off – and sometimes get tested twice in a day"
buffzone.com/2020/11/21/how…
College football is important in American culture & as a business

I used to think its contradictions could be reconciled with university missions

No longer

Football can associate w/ universities but should no longer pursue the fiction of being a part of the university mission
You know who got this right?
University of Chicago 1939
washingtonpost.com/sports/2019/08…
Read 6 tweets
Roger Pielke Jr. Profile picture
12 Nov
One problem in the communication of climate science is that "experts climate communicators" make quick judgments for reporters on deadline on papers they have not read & data they have not analyzed and then, when paper is shown to be fatally flawed, defend their original comments
Example: A scientist in this @capitalweather @washingtonpost article cites hurricanes Michael (2018) and Ike (2008) to emphasize the results of the paper & both of these storms decayed FASTER than the average rate reported in study

Bad science all around

washingtonpost.com/weather/2020/1…
Difficult to believe, but in this brief quote ALL SEVEN empirical claims by this scientist are just false

Don't take it from me (or him) just check the data yourself

Hurricanes are climate catnip but that doesn't mean we should accept bad science
/[steps off soapbox] Image
Read 4 tweets
Roger Pielke Jr. Profile picture
9 Nov
A design flaw is revealed here

The management structure of US Global Change Research Program has it overseen by a subcommittee of the White House NSTC

That means that its leadership is -- in effect -- politically appointed even if they are not technically political appointees
However it has come about that the leader of the next US national climate assessment will work from an agency as a career scientists (not politically appointed & not working from White House) is good news for the integrity of the NCA as an advisory mechanism
Climate science has been overseen from the White House since the 1980s & the US NCA since the 1990s

On that early history see:
Pielke Jr 2000. Policy history of the US global change research program: Part I. Administrative development. GEC 10:9-25. sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/admin/publicat…
Read 8 tweets

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