Share this page!

David Henig Profile picture
Twitter logo
1 Dec, 6 tweets, 2 min read
31 days (including today).

21 working days.

Until the biggest one day change in trade terms in history.

(yes, that is true. £2 billion of trade per day to be affected by new barriers).
I have no idea why senior German politicians are currently undermining EU negotiators since such comments make no deal more likely in making the UK think the EU will give way at the last minute, which won't happen.
The public EU endgame of UK FTA negotiation - deadline confusion, ignoring rights of their own institutions, undermining each other - has been pretty shambolic.
A comment on the German (Rottgen) comment on Brexit talks before the UK side get too excited, no the German car makers aren't coming to the rescue...
Northern Ireland. Many challenges. None of them resolved by a trade deal (even the absence of tariffs is conditional on rules of origin which some UK foodstuffs such as bread may not meet)
Another intervention in the last days of trade talks leaving the puzzle of what precisely it hopes to achieve. We could see the landing zone is June, what has this got to do with whether the UK can make a decision or not? irishtimes.com/news/politics/…

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
　

Keep Current with David Henig

David Henig Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @DavidHenigUK

David Henig Profile picture
2 Dec
One of a number of UK-EU related rumours going around of major announcements / breakthroughs in the coming days. The health warning is that in the past these have tended to be UK government wishful thinking of what the EU might agree by when. Maybe different this time?
I am still sceptical of impending announcements because the mood music from the EU side is no different to before. The UK is not moving. They predicate a deal I think on the basis mostly of EU concession.
The European Parliament finally wakes up to the realisation that the short time available means it can only be a rubber stamp to any agreement reached this year between UK and EU, and that this means they need to draw the lines now.
Read 5 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
2 Dec
I think it is becoming increasingly likely the PM simply won't make a decision on an EU FTA. Too difficult for him, too many problems either way, easier to say the EU failed to deliver us the deal. After all, so far no decision in ?3? months.
The price of compromise on either side is also being raised by internal dissent. That's what I wrote about 2 weeks ago - the internal negotiation. Visible on the EU side. Happening by proxy on the UK side. prospectmagazine.co.uk/economics-and-…
By the endgame of trade talks you would hope the lead negotiators would be helping each other overcome domestic barriers to a deal. Isn't happening. No evidence of movement, still, on the key issues.
Read 5 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
1 Dec
The EU equivalent of the Brexiteer briefings of recent weeks saying a deal would only be acceptable under very limited circumstances - trying to stop compromise too far before it happens, warning the other side not to take them for granted. Quite common.
Maybe a different way to see this is a test of how much ground the EU and Member States feel they can give to avoid no deal. Suspect not enough to change the basic shape of negotiations.
Certainly though if the UK still don't particularly understand trade deals, the EU have handled negotiations rather oddly in the last month, allowing the UK and now Member States to believe there will be a significant last minute concession.
Read 5 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
1 Dec
The media pendulum is starting to swing, and will keep going, towards stories about losses from Brexit. Because these will be the easy stories. Because minor easements with other countries won't make up for major new barriers to the EU. And because the EU is nearer.
The widespread assumption that the benefits of EU membership were not caused by EU membership, that this level of openness was the global standard and you could just switch off the bits you didn't like, is going to be proved wrong.
And it will be the more tangible losses that are more likely to affect the UK's EU debate than GDP losses that as we found out recently few people understand.

And they happen trade deal or not. Which is going to add to the confusion.
Read 5 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
1 Dec
Take your pick. Though I'm unconvinced that tunnel is the right term in the situation when we are waiting for political decisions to be made. Image
Clearly with time running out every week is now crucial for EU-UK talks. And a breakthrough could come at literally any moment since the technical detail of a deal is pretty obvious. But that problem of a PM apparently unwilling to take on Brexit ultras is unchanged.
More of a cutting than a tunnel then? Though briefings weren't daily anyway.

What it sounds like to me is a last chance for both sides to test alternative proposals for breaking the deadlock.
Read 6 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
1 Dec
The incendiary nature of such a move for relations with the EU and US can hardly be overstated. But that this is even considered suggests the UK government to be deadly serious about no-deal and breaking the withdrawal agreement. thecritic.co.uk/government-to-…
The biggest Brexit risk of coming months is a UK government which does not believe the EU or US really care about the UK breaching the Withdrawal Agreement, or will understand the government's (unique) point of view on what it signed.
UK government ministers can repeat their mentions of protecting the Good Friday Agreement as much as they like, the EU, Ireland, and the US disagree profoundly that proposed UK government measures achieve this, and for very good reason.
Read 8 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

Like this author's thread?

Get emails when @DavidHenigUK has new unrolls!

Check out other threads from @DavidHenigUK!

Read all threads by @DavidHenigUK