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David Henig Profile picture
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1 Dec, 8 tweets, 2 min read
The incendiary nature of such a move for relations with the EU and US can hardly be overstated. But that this is even considered suggests the UK government to be deadly serious about no-deal and breaking the withdrawal agreement. thecritic.co.uk/government-to-…
The biggest Brexit risk of coming months is a UK government which does not believe the EU or US really care about the UK breaching the Withdrawal Agreement, or will understand the government's (unique) point of view on what it signed.
UK government ministers can repeat their mentions of protecting the Good Friday Agreement as much as they like, the EU, Ireland, and the US disagree profoundly that proposed UK government measures achieve this, and for very good reason.
To be entirely blunt, UK threats to renege on the Northern Ireland protocol look to the EU and US like a government who care nothing whatsoever about Northern Ireland peace which they have put secondary to the purest Brexit possible.
I fear that the UK government have convinced themselves and political reporters that their rather convenient interpretation of the Northern Ireland protocol, that it would be replaced by an FTA, is not a big deal to others, and are surprised this isn't the case.
And lest you think I am favouring one Northern Ireland community over another, it was the response of the DUP to the Northern Ireland Protocol last year, and the government's response in turn, that provided the first indication that all would not be well.
A government prepared to risk peace in Northern Ireland, and take on the EU and US in breaching an international treaty it signed and won an election on, is a very dangerous one for the UK. As even prominent Brexiteers in the House of Lords recognised.
Every political pressure should be put on the government with regard to respect for treaties applying to Northern Ireland. Because right now this appears the single most reckless act of UK international policy in modern history.

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More from @DavidHenigUK

David Henig Profile picture
2 Dec
One of a number of UK-EU related rumours going around of major announcements / breakthroughs in the coming days. The health warning is that in the past these have tended to be UK government wishful thinking of what the EU might agree by when. Maybe different this time?
I am still sceptical of impending announcements because the mood music from the EU side is no different to before. The UK is not moving. They predicate a deal I think on the basis mostly of EU concession.
The European Parliament finally wakes up to the realisation that the short time available means it can only be a rubber stamp to any agreement reached this year between UK and EU, and that this means they need to draw the lines now.
Read 5 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
2 Dec
I think it is becoming increasingly likely the PM simply won't make a decision on an EU FTA. Too difficult for him, too many problems either way, easier to say the EU failed to deliver us the deal. After all, so far no decision in ?3? months.
The price of compromise on either side is also being raised by internal dissent. That's what I wrote about 2 weeks ago - the internal negotiation. Visible on the EU side. Happening by proxy on the UK side. prospectmagazine.co.uk/economics-and-…
By the endgame of trade talks you would hope the lead negotiators would be helping each other overcome domestic barriers to a deal. Isn't happening. No evidence of movement, still, on the key issues.
Read 5 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
1 Dec
The EU equivalent of the Brexiteer briefings of recent weeks saying a deal would only be acceptable under very limited circumstances - trying to stop compromise too far before it happens, warning the other side not to take them for granted. Quite common.
Maybe a different way to see this is a test of how much ground the EU and Member States feel they can give to avoid no deal. Suspect not enough to change the basic shape of negotiations.
Certainly though if the UK still don't particularly understand trade deals, the EU have handled negotiations rather oddly in the last month, allowing the UK and now Member States to believe there will be a significant last minute concession.
Read 5 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
1 Dec
The media pendulum is starting to swing, and will keep going, towards stories about losses from Brexit. Because these will be the easy stories. Because minor easements with other countries won't make up for major new barriers to the EU. And because the EU is nearer.
The widespread assumption that the benefits of EU membership were not caused by EU membership, that this level of openness was the global standard and you could just switch off the bits you didn't like, is going to be proved wrong.
And it will be the more tangible losses that are more likely to affect the UK's EU debate than GDP losses that as we found out recently few people understand.

And they happen trade deal or not. Which is going to add to the confusion.
Read 5 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
1 Dec
Take your pick. Though I'm unconvinced that tunnel is the right term in the situation when we are waiting for political decisions to be made. Image
Clearly with time running out every week is now crucial for EU-UK talks. And a breakthrough could come at literally any moment since the technical detail of a deal is pretty obvious. But that problem of a PM apparently unwilling to take on Brexit ultras is unchanged.
More of a cutting than a tunnel then? Though briefings weren't daily anyway.

What it sounds like to me is a last chance for both sides to test alternative proposals for breaking the deadlock.
Read 6 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
1 Dec
UK forecast to do better than Argentina this year in terms of GDP growth. Take that, remoaners*

(* - please don't look at the other figures)
The serious point on the UK economy is about services, trade of which at least in the UK may be even more dependent that we thought on the ability of people to travel.

*UK government policy is to make it hard for people to come here*
Probably a good time to remind ourselves that the government literally does not have an economic plan. There are some initiatives, funds of various kinds, freeports. Some soundbites like levelling up. But there is no single plan for growth.
Read 5 tweets

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