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David Henig Profile picture
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1 Dec, 5 tweets, 2 min read
UK forecast to do better than Argentina this year in terms of GDP growth. Take that, remoaners*

(* - please don't look at the other figures)
The serious point on the UK economy is about services, trade of which at least in the UK may be even more dependent that we thought on the ability of people to travel.

*UK government policy is to make it hard for people to come here*
Probably a good time to remind ourselves that the government literally does not have an economic plan. There are some initiatives, funds of various kinds, freeports. Some soundbites like levelling up. But there is no single plan for growth.
The FT's Trade Secrets today ($) has more on the UK losing trade share this year in key markets. Some could be service related, but also possibly the impact of manufacturers moving some facilities out of the UK over the last few years.
No, lower tariffs with Pacific countries cannot possibly make up for hugely increased trade barriers of all types to the major market on our doorstep. The only question is the size of the economic hit, not whether there will be one.

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More from @DavidHenigUK

David Henig Profile picture
3 Dec
Reasonable to assume fresh talk of an EU deadline is behind the signs of greater negotiating activity last night. But a deal still, as it has been all year, a 50:50 shot in the hands of one man.

He wanted to be Prime Minister. But not necessarily to make big decisions.
Given how much Ireland has at stake, yes they hope there will be a deal. But not theirs to broker this time round, this is cheerleading.
I suddenly wonder about the UK and EU announcing a deal this weekend then the UK government reintroducing the Internal Market Bill clauses on Northern Ireland next week. UK says here's the deal and keeps Brexiteers happy. What would the EU do?
Read 8 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
2 Dec
This is the false impression that UK officials have had for four and a half years that EU negotiations with third countries always go to the last minute. That's internal negotiations.

Also the belief in this negotiation that the EU will concede if we wait long enough.
Partly the EU's fault for never properly setting a deadline. But also a sign of continuing UK ignorance of trade agreements that thinks a few days from agreement to implementation is in any way possible.

But also - inviting the EU to end talks.
EU approach traditionally is that no third country can ever beat the EU for playing the long game. So if applied to the UK it would be to say we've missed the deadline for January but we'll keep talking and perhaps we'll have an agreement in 2021.
Read 4 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
2 Dec
One of a number of UK-EU related rumours going around of major announcements / breakthroughs in the coming days. The health warning is that in the past these have tended to be UK government wishful thinking of what the EU might agree by when. Maybe different this time?
I am still sceptical of impending announcements because the mood music from the EU side is no different to before. The UK is not moving. They predicate a deal I think on the basis mostly of EU concession.
The European Parliament finally wakes up to the realisation that the short time available means it can only be a rubber stamp to any agreement reached this year between UK and EU, and that this means they need to draw the lines now.
Read 5 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
2 Dec
I think it is becoming increasingly likely the PM simply won't make a decision on an EU FTA. Too difficult for him, too many problems either way, easier to say the EU failed to deliver us the deal. After all, so far no decision in ?3? months.
The price of compromise on either side is also being raised by internal dissent. That's what I wrote about 2 weeks ago - the internal negotiation. Visible on the EU side. Happening by proxy on the UK side. prospectmagazine.co.uk/economics-and-…
By the endgame of trade talks you would hope the lead negotiators would be helping each other overcome domestic barriers to a deal. Isn't happening. No evidence of movement, still, on the key issues.
Read 5 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
1 Dec
The EU equivalent of the Brexiteer briefings of recent weeks saying a deal would only be acceptable under very limited circumstances - trying to stop compromise too far before it happens, warning the other side not to take them for granted. Quite common.
Maybe a different way to see this is a test of how much ground the EU and Member States feel they can give to avoid no deal. Suspect not enough to change the basic shape of negotiations.
Certainly though if the UK still don't particularly understand trade deals, the EU have handled negotiations rather oddly in the last month, allowing the UK and now Member States to believe there will be a significant last minute concession.
Read 5 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
1 Dec
The media pendulum is starting to swing, and will keep going, towards stories about losses from Brexit. Because these will be the easy stories. Because minor easements with other countries won't make up for major new barriers to the EU. And because the EU is nearer.
The widespread assumption that the benefits of EU membership were not caused by EU membership, that this level of openness was the global standard and you could just switch off the bits you didn't like, is going to be proved wrong.
And it will be the more tangible losses that are more likely to affect the UK's EU debate than GDP losses that as we found out recently few people understand.

And they happen trade deal or not. Which is going to add to the confusion.
Read 5 tweets

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