1. Keep trying to get Reps to understand, there have been 2 or 3 inflection points where they had an opp to re-seize control from Trump via coordination. They failed to act on it. They have another op right now to act together to marginalize him. Unwittingly this little GA cohort
2. provides a little "seed" for it, and the motivation, of course, is the very same senate run-off that GOPers worry that angering Trump hurts their odds in that race. But the fact is, they have lost Trump to full crazy. He's not capable of being an electoral asset down there
3. and for the 1st time, may actually spoil a race for the party bc there is a contingent of the nuts now that think that the GA race (recounted 3 Xs & matched to paper ballots!) was fraudulent also to help Kelly Loeffler steal the race from Doug Collins, the House Rep down there
4. that caused this seat to be vulnerable in the 1st place by challenging her in the state's fairly unique "jungle" general for an appointed seat. Now some contingent of the GA GOP electorate, the most Q'Anon part, is advocating people protest ballot the election to teach the
5. party a lesson for trying to "pull one over on the people" and Trump is helping the Republican Party- paying it back for its years of "belly up" humiliation & willingness to destroy the Constitution they had claimed to love, he's paying them back for all of that by adding
6. fuel to this conspiracy fire. SO, there's a "not zero" chance that the Warnock race, the one we were most worried about anyway, might get an extra break in the form of some 3rd party protest balloting. If even 2pts of vote that would've gone to Loeffler instead goes to writing
7. in Trump, that could decide the race in Ds favor. So far, this has been Trump's main contribution to the GOP post-election. Let's say that does happen, that Ds do pull off these run-offs (understand, Ds are underdogs for both no matter what sunny picture others paint on these
8. the run-off history of these races for Ds is terrible. That said, can it be done? It can. The team sent in by DSCC seems to indicate some acknowledgment of what went wrong in the general & yields to the reality that by far the best asset these candidates have is @staceyabrams
9. and the other groups working in conjunction w @fairfight on enhancing turnout. If both campaigns focus first on turnout of Dem coalition voters as they structure their campaigns, they have a chance. Winner will be determined by whether Ds can match Rs on turnout and blow up
10. turnout among Indies (get the Indie turnout swing). The Ossoff campaign has been using a lot of nationalized, stakes framing in their ads. They seem to understand this. I am less confident in the messaging from the Warnock campaign. But Abrams' efforts around registration &
11. vote by mail puts both seats within reach and the stakes couldn't be higher. Win them and they'll be a Biden agenda. He will be able to enact some policies. Lose them and likely McConnell will run the senate with one goal in mind, destroy Joe Biden. This means that Americans
12. lives literally depend on these two seats. Prospective Dem voters will be hit with the message that their one vote can elect two senators that might change the lives of millions of Americans. It might save them from losing their healthcare. Or from being deported to a country
13. they left at age 2. Or from being left to lose their homes and businesses and to suffer from COVID economic malaise bc the GOP decides to give them NOTHING, like they've done for the past 4 months. That's one hell of a vote, if you ask me!
14. If the Ds DO win these seats, that will create a 3rd inflection point for the GOP to turn against Trump & try to excise him. It is, absolutely still true that they can not lash out at him alone. But collectively, when he is weak and seen as causing the party harm? Its hard
15. to believe that they were willing to follow this nut into a coup- but they were. If they don't decouple themselves from him in Jan, they'll be stuck w him until he ages out. For all his strategic brilliance, its baffling to me how McConnell keeps getting beat by this clown.
To be clear- the organizers of the "boycott" movement are telling people to cross out Loeffler and write in Trump

This invalidates the ballot but gets the point across.

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More from @RachelBitecofer

2 Dec
1. Just came across a remarkably well executed article by @dylanmatt for @voxdotcom on the various forms of voter contact & the efficacy/effects of it. It was penned in Oct so before results. We had a really nice natural field experiment play out this cycle in terms of field bc
2. we've never seen a prez + congress + state leg cycle (nor would we ever, its crazy!) where 1 party did normal voter reg drives & normal field and the other just didn't. Instead, it ran, at the prez level until Oct 1 text-banking & phone-banking alts, although, & this is really
3. imp, grassroot groups, DID do field work. At least some did. And when they did, they tended to focus on the prez election, as they are wont to do in this cycle. And, as I've pointed out, in their infinite wisdom, the state party chairs of the Blue Wall + AZ all ran their own
Read 15 tweets
2 Dec
1. I work hard on the alt-reality issues @nytdavidbrooks is talking to @KatyTurNBC about, but I really think he'd benefit from diversifying his own sources/knowledge on this topic. It falls back to the coastal city folks vs the "real Americans/left behind" schtick that ignores
2. reality of the fact that via their vote choice (for the GOP) voters in rural areas & red states are taking active roles in their economic annihilations. Its not "blue state coastal elites" robbing them blind-its their own beloved GOP electeds- the same ones they kick it w at
3. at the pig roast, county fair, or local parade., At the surface, these electeds DO appear to represent their folks well, but in the state chamber or in DC, on their votes, esp the economic ones, they are screwing their friends & neighbors over. The only things they're NOT
Read 5 tweets
1 Dec
1. It is imperative that we make clear what has/is happening in the 2020 cycle. We only saw democracy hold, we only saw the 1-39 record, we only saw the rule of law hold here in America bc of the size of the margins. @JoeBiden is positioning himself to be the incontrovertible
2. "olive branch" extender, putting forth highly-qualified & non-controversial cabinet picks to go along w his continued reliance on a "reset" w the GOP, all but begging the party to "return from the ledge" and meet him in Jan. w the intention of governing the country- something
3. the GOP stopped doing long ago when it embraced a different role, that of entrenched opposition seeking to hold power simply to hold it & to seed judges. As you know, I (sadly) think these efforts, which have really been a full "dog belly up" submission package will gain Biden
Read 11 tweets
29 Nov
1. Bc of the influence that young voter turnout played in @JoeBiden's win, action on those policy issues are PARAMOUNT to the hopes of Ds holding onto these voters showing up in 2022 @MariaTeresa1. If a narrative builds that Biden isn't delivering, even if the reason is GOP
2. obstruction. If there's no action bc of that, but the NARRATIVE doesn't tell voters that part of the story to drive up negative partisanship, then no, 2022 WILL NOT be a continuation if the cycles we saw under a Trump. The unannounced project in working on is going to be
3. focusing on that- trying to copy what Trump did and artificially inflame neg partisanship- but w/o the Rights media machine, it won't be easy! But that's what killed Obama in 2010- letting the narrative be shaped by the GOP & not offensively protecting the House majority.
Read 4 tweets
28 Nov
1. Don't fall into a trap w the new Court & its supporting cast on these religious liberty cases about COVID regulations. So long as there are casinos open in Vegas or liquor stores/bars open, you're walking into political minefield that is easily exploitable. Should churches be
2. holding large gatherings? No! WILL they hold gatherings if they're allowed to, even though that's a bad idea on Earth 1? Yes, they will. They will hold events, then be surprised that someone managed to bring the virus to it. That one person will infect 10 others. Maybe more.
3. Maybe one of them will degrade. One might even get hospitalized. It'll a big surprise to the family, but it'll be just another story- hardly remarkable out here in Earth 2- where real news and info exists. But the fact is that you can't have schools and churches closed, but
Read 10 tweets
27 Nov
1. I'll add to this, I still have some knowledge gaps as to how a fully funded, Red to Blue/DCCC campaign or a high level Senate race is operated in terms of the campaign's relationship w the party's org. I know a great deal, but its come to me in bits & pieces & I'd appreciate
2. a full debrief so I can better understand the whole process. But what I DO know of it there are some obvious issues, some of which the authors here allude to (when they refer to the DCCC's "one-size-fits-all" messaging approach). But I do know candidates are railroaded into
3. the party's preferred messaging and targeting systems, vendors, etc by essentially a behavioral choice system, that provides options but only within a predetermined strategic framework designed in advance. I do know that campaigns have so independence, esp if they are prolific
Read 13 tweets

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