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3 Dec, 17 tweets, 5 min read
Reasonable to assume fresh talk of an EU deadline is behind the signs of greater negotiating activity last night. But a deal still, as it has been all year, a 50:50 shot in the hands of one man.

He wanted to be Prime Minister. But not necessarily to make big decisions.
Given how much Ireland has at stake, yes they hope there will be a deal. But not theirs to broker this time round, this is cheerleading.
I suddenly wonder about the UK and EU announcing a deal this weekend then the UK government reintroducing the Internal Market Bill clauses on Northern Ireland next week. UK says here's the deal and keeps Brexiteers happy. What would the EU do?
The choreography around any UK-EU deal announcement would not be straightforward. Many competing interests on both sides. A lot to do in a very short space of time with very little trust between or within sides. One reason this is far from certain.
Treat every report about the progress of the end stages of trade talks with plenty of scepticism. But this sounds extremely plausible...
Would those "quite substantial gaps" be in level playing field, governance, fish, and Northern Ireland by any chance?

This season of Brexit seems to be the same episode played out repeatedly.

We know what the deal is. Now get on and finish it...
Illustrative of the difficulties the UK and EU face in Brexit endgame. Leave out the IMB parts relating to Northern Ireland and prepare for Brexiteer outrage. Put them back in and prepare for EU outrage. Someone has to be disappointed.
Incidentally, might there be time in that schedule Tuesday or Wednesday for something else? 👀
Ok, unhelpful interpretation coming up, but... I don't think a government planning to make concessions to the EU would announce publicly scheduling of known difficult legislation for the following week. I think it is a sign they still think the EU will concede.
Reasoning - it is now in the open if the UK withdraws the problematic Northern Ireland related legislation. You better have a good story to your backbenchers who supported it about why you withdrew it. Especially when you can't deliver the zero check GB-NI trade.
This time may be different. There might be an agreement already which negates next week's legislation. But if so, why specifically say the government would be returning the relevant passages to the Commons?
The wise sage of Brexit @Sime0nStylites thinks there may yet be another political crisis before a Brexit deal. I think he may well be right. Certainly I am very cautious at the widespread assumption there *will* be a deal Sunday. A lot lies in that assumption.
Hmm. Link to Northern Ireland announcement? the pre deal flounce predicted by @Sime0nStylites. Or a repeat of the previously seen pattern where the UK is shocked that a minor concession (perhaps on LPF) hasn't mysteriously unlocked everything?
Ok, as expected, the UK thought they would unlock the talks with the latest concession but actually needs more... another repeat in this Brexit saga and so it goes...
Apologies for the repeat:

The UK has never taken Level Playing Field seriously as an issue, hence repeated briefings fish is the main problem.

The EU has never taken UK demands on fish seriously as an issue thinking we would trade it away.

That is your deal, or your failure.
Plus, lurking somewhere in the too difficult / sensitive box is Northern Ireland, about which we are hearing surprisingly little right now given very different interpretations of the protocol which are eased but not resolved by a deal.
What strikes me from this account of Level Playing Field issues between UK and EU is how many details remain unresolved, in a low trust environment where neither wants fudge, and both claim no-deal isn't disaster. Big leap of faith needed to get to deal. politico.eu/article/barnie…

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More from @DavidHenigUK

David Henig Profile picture
4 Dec
Good to have a couple of real experts explaining outstanding issues in UK-EU talks are not, as the UK government would have it, just fish. Though EU Member States have to show they are fighting for their fishing fleets.
I don't think Fabian has been knowingly optimistic of prospects for a UK-EU deal for months, but he will reflect wider EU thinking.
It seems most likely that yesterday's setback was the UK thinking a concession would solve the whole Level Playing Field issue, and being surprised when it didn't. This appears to be a pattern. But doesn't mean it is unsolvable.
Read 7 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
2 Dec
This is the false impression that UK officials have had for four and a half years that EU negotiations with third countries always go to the last minute. That's internal negotiations.

Also the belief in this negotiation that the EU will concede if we wait long enough.
Partly the EU's fault for never properly setting a deadline. But also a sign of continuing UK ignorance of trade agreements that thinks a few days from agreement to implementation is in any way possible.

But also - inviting the EU to end talks.
EU approach traditionally is that no third country can ever beat the EU for playing the long game. So if applied to the UK it would be to say we've missed the deadline for January but we'll keep talking and perhaps we'll have an agreement in 2021.
Read 4 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
2 Dec
One of a number of UK-EU related rumours going around of major announcements / breakthroughs in the coming days. The health warning is that in the past these have tended to be UK government wishful thinking of what the EU might agree by when. Maybe different this time?
I am still sceptical of impending announcements because the mood music from the EU side is no different to before. The UK is not moving. They predicate a deal I think on the basis mostly of EU concession.
The European Parliament finally wakes up to the realisation that the short time available means it can only be a rubber stamp to any agreement reached this year between UK and EU, and that this means they need to draw the lines now.
Read 5 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
2 Dec
I think it is becoming increasingly likely the PM simply won't make a decision on an EU FTA. Too difficult for him, too many problems either way, easier to say the EU failed to deliver us the deal. After all, so far no decision in ?3? months.
The price of compromise on either side is also being raised by internal dissent. That's what I wrote about 2 weeks ago - the internal negotiation. Visible on the EU side. Happening by proxy on the UK side. prospectmagazine.co.uk/economics-and-…
By the endgame of trade talks you would hope the lead negotiators would be helping each other overcome domestic barriers to a deal. Isn't happening. No evidence of movement, still, on the key issues.
Read 5 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
1 Dec
The EU equivalent of the Brexiteer briefings of recent weeks saying a deal would only be acceptable under very limited circumstances - trying to stop compromise too far before it happens, warning the other side not to take them for granted. Quite common.
Maybe a different way to see this is a test of how much ground the EU and Member States feel they can give to avoid no deal. Suspect not enough to change the basic shape of negotiations.
Certainly though if the UK still don't particularly understand trade deals, the EU have handled negotiations rather oddly in the last month, allowing the UK and now Member States to believe there will be a significant last minute concession.
Read 5 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
1 Dec
The media pendulum is starting to swing, and will keep going, towards stories about losses from Brexit. Because these will be the easy stories. Because minor easements with other countries won't make up for major new barriers to the EU. And because the EU is nearer.
The widespread assumption that the benefits of EU membership were not caused by EU membership, that this level of openness was the global standard and you could just switch off the bits you didn't like, is going to be proved wrong.
And it will be the more tangible losses that are more likely to affect the UK's EU debate than GDP losses that as we found out recently few people understand.

And they happen trade deal or not. Which is going to add to the confusion.
Read 5 tweets

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