here is a sensible plan, which i would follow

u were in cash bcz market wasnt supporting delivery trades with long bias. So this is the primary factor u need ur analysis to b based upon.
The best tool to guage the market health is market breadth

1/13
such as advance/decline ratio, % of scrips abv 200 SMA, number of scrips at yearly highs etc. The idea behind it is find out a general condition which held true in the past bullish phases in the market.

2/13
Suppose in the past bull markets, there were >70% scrips abv 200SMA till the bull market finishes. So u can form a thesis that once we have this data coosses abv 70% critical level, u would be able to assess that market is starting a new bull market stage.
3/13
ur first concern of weak market condition is adressed here.
Now move on to next; sector identification.
find the sectors which recovered faster than the market and lead the market in the new improved market health. Find the strongest scrips from these sectors.

4/13
Alternatively, avoiding the sector analysis, one can find strongest scrips irrespctive of the sectors as well.
These will form the sore of the portfolio.

5/13
Find a pool of 8-20 scrips from the identified ones. Analyse them thoroughly and find the elvels of entry and the risk associated with it
This will give exact idea about the position size one could choose with each of the scrips

Analysis part finishes here

6/13
Now, the crucial part in analysis and forming the trade plan is to find 8-20 scrips to trade. Here a bigger pool of scrips helps dissipating the early risk of negative P&L in the account.

7/13
One should always expect around 20% of the scrips to run so fast while around 30% would be non perfomers, rest 50% likely to give steady return in the early part of the portfolio perfomace.
such a portfolio likely to give a steady average return straight away.

8/13
trick here was to completely form the portfolio as early as possible so that the perfomace risk averages out into higher number of scrips
Instead, if u choose to enter in scrips one by one as opportunity comes,

9/13
if u werent be able to pick the top performing scrips first (somehow), it will be emotionally so challenging to go on with the process to complete the portfolio by picking scrips one after the other.

10/13
now, the careful part is the capital allocation.
while u devide it into 8-20 equal parts to diversify the risk and have a reasonable number of scrips in portfolio to dissipate the risk evenly, u must never go with "enter all at once" approach.

11/13
initial entry should be with 1/4th, 1/3rd or 1/2nd quantity first. Later on as the trend develops, make the further scaling ins.
also this approach helps to scale in the winners more and reduce the weightage of non perfomers straight away.

12/13
twice, i have demostrated this style of portfolio formation here successfully, one being so recent, just last month
u can chk the stats here.




this is not the only method out there
may be plenty of ways r there
make urs

13/13

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More from @ProdigalTrader

23 Oct
Components of a focussed trading journal

A trading journal isnt just about recording basic trade details
Its a live market forward test report as well.
For that u need to assess & analyse various facets in trading separately

Here are the components of trading journal

1/12
1. Trade-specific details

The entry, SL, exit price/time,
Traded instrument,
Trade direction,
The result of the trade etc.

2/12
2. Analysis

logic behind the entry, SL and target levels.
Potential reasons for why trade might not work
Review of the same after trade completed.
Notes on scope of improvements etc.

3/12
Read 12 tweets
22 Oct
designing a #tradingsystem

Price- Bar/Candlestick/Heike Ashi
Supply Demand - Volume, Vwap, Volume Weighed MA
Momentum - Rsi/Macd/Stoch
Volatility - Bollinger Band/Keltner Band/ATR
Support/Resistance - Swing Pivots, MA, HVN, DP, Weekly/Monthly HLC

1/4
Use one from each category

Do not overload with multiple tools from same category
For example,
do not use stochastic and macd together.
Both measures momentum.
And both are imperfect in its own way.
Same goes true with other tools as well

2/4
One system to start with I would suggest here

Candlestick charting for price
Volume for supply and demand
Macd for momentum
Bollinger band for volatility
Swing Pivots for Support/Resistance

This is a good logical start

3/4
Read 4 tweets
19 Oct
Often u would find a struggling person talks philosophy
Bcz, that's easy
Kind of accepting what's happening as inevitable
It's fate & u r bound to take it

But very few guys,
refuse philosophy
decide to fight
Make a plan
start from scratch
&
persist with hard work

They win

1/4
Relate it with trading
Each and every successful trader was a struggling trader once
It's just becoz he decided to keep philosophy aside and worked upon his core weaknesses,
he became what he is now

2/4
Behind his present success, there would be lots of painful experiences and sacrifices wold be there
which he committed to fullfil his ambition.
That's the solo route to success in trading career

3/4
Read 4 tweets
19 Oct
thr exists no way of building conviction on ur trading process
except "backtesting"
Its not just about the response in price after the chart set up is formed,

scaling in potential
Volatility risk
Impact of demand etc etc
thr r lot many important parameters to b quantified.

1/5
All the trading decisions u take in ur trading
has to be backrtested for the last min 5 years data.
Suppose u havent done any backtesting, and u have position which goes against u
u would be just holding it based on ur emotions.

2/5
u dont have any idea about what are the chances for price to regain all the losses
But if u have done the BT, then u will have an exact point of price beyond which there is no hope for any recovery.

3/5
Read 5 tweets
18 Oct
Volatility based Stoploss in day trading
Why closing based SL is fraud idea?

when u day trade with chart analysis,
u need to use OHLC charts
That means u use bar charts or candlestick charts.
U should never use line chart for that

1/10
This is quite obvious and everyone knows that
But the question is why is that?

Pls read on

In OHLC charting,
High and Low of every candle denotes the volatility in that time period.
This parameter is of atmost important in day trading as

2/10
this determines the stoploss for the trade
If a trader measure the volatility of every bar properly,
he is well informed about how much price can swing
away from a certain price point at any given period of time.

3/10
Read 10 tweets
24 Sep
psychology behind attempting to find and trade tops/bottom is quite straight forward.

suppose price is going up and near resistance
conceptually trade here is short
if the price fell from resistance and confirmed trend reversal,

1/5
one needs bear a bigger SL here
trend reversal point after confirmation being quite far
So we would wait for pullback so that risk would be lesser
When pullback actually happens,
he assess it as correction and assume the previous trend strength is lost already

2/5
Now, when price completes pullback and resumes falling again
he find himself in the same dilema, that SL quite wide as price fell already

Amateur traders find its solution as picking the top
so that he would be quite close to the SL level when making the entry

3/5
Read 5 tweets

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