Thread by @garyblack00

Here are 10 reasons why you should be buying $TSLA today at $560:

1/ Huge EV runway ahead, with global EV penetration now 3% likely to go to 20-25% by 2025 (6-8x increase).

2/ TSLA’s EV share continues to grow - not fall - as TAM expands, even as ICE competitors launch...

their own EVs. New EVs take from ICE vehicles, not other EVs. This is the biggest research flaw in $TSLAQ ‘s short thesis.

3/ $TSLA has several positive Dec/Jan catalysts to propel it higher, including wide FSD release (12/15), MIC Y production (12/15), CyTruck update (12/15).

4/ FY’21 vol guide of 800K+ will exceed Street ests of 774K (1/27). That will spark a fresh round of 2021 $TSLA earnings increases, pushing TSLA PTs higher.

5/ Biden’s 1/22 inaugural address will include clean energy, incl restoration of $7,500 credit on all EVs, incl TSLA.

6/ $TSLA TAM in Europe and China will double with introduction of Model Y CUV (2021/1Q). In the US, Model Y has become $TSLA ‘s best selling model in less than a year, with 10-15% cannibalization of M3 and X. The same will happen in Europe and China.

7/ Berlin and Austin factories will come on stream in 2021/2H, which, with Shanghai Y expansion, will double $TSLA production capacity from 990K today to 2,140K by 2021 Y.E.

8/ $TSLA Cybertruck, Semi, and Roadster will all launch in 2021-22. Cybertruck alone could add 500K delivs in FY’21 and FY’22, given a reported 675K in pre-orders that are likely to prove very sticky, given CyTrck’s uniqueness. Semi profitability will likely be $30-$40K/truck.

9/ With S&P inclusion, $8T in active mgr assets will have to make a conscious decision to hold $TSLA at its 1.4% bm weight, or risk underperformance (85% mgrs underperformed S&P past 5 years). At BM weight, that would be 180M shares (24% float). This becomes relevant in 2021/1Q.

10/ $TSLA EPS continues to outrun its multiple. When traders say this, they mean that as the calendar flips and portfolio mgrs lookat TSLA, it looks too cheap on FY’22/FY’23EPS instead of FY’20/FY’21. At $560, TSLA now sells at 61x FY’22 EPS, and 40x FY’23 EPS vs 111x FY’20 EPS.