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2 Dec, 7 tweets, 3 min read
Breaking: No one tested at RI’s airport has COVID! 1% of those tested did however have “FalsePositive19”, the pandemic sweeping the world! Officials warned travelers that they “should be ashamed” that they contracted FP19. 1/6 wpri.com/target-12/11-t…
Meanwhile officials admonish public to “stay home but also to get tested”. The DOH director noted that “if folks don’t get tested, we won’t know how many have FP19. Furthermore, hospitals are filling up with FP19 patients.” (Fact check: 22% of avail beds). 2/6
The Binax Now Rapid Antigen test used at the airport has a 1-2% specificity= false positive rate. Hence any perfectly healthy pop tested with Binax will show 1-2% FP19! Just like the airport. 3/6
The PCR tests used most everywhere however can flag distilled water positive for FP19 if the machine is turned up to 11 (high Ct), which they almost always are. Might at least partially explain why the state is at 9% rate using PCR vs the 1% found at the airport 4/6
Similar results found in Liverpool when they switched from PCR to LF (Binax is a type of LF test) testing. 5/6
When asked how they plan to separate FP19 from C19 cases, an official stated, “We know FP19 is serious and it’s spreading. We think C19 is too. So as long as we get some kind of pos cases, we can keep this charade going. Hence we urge citizens to stay safe and get tested!” /e

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More from @TTBikeFit

TNK Profile picture
3 Dec
Bombshell study (meta review) from Oxford just published on PCR testing, Ct and virus viability.

💥This study completely invalidates the current c19 PCR test data💥

Recall that invalid test results also flow into hospitalization and fatality stats.

For key takeaways, read on Image
No viable virus at >7days from symptom onset.

Yet at this time Median Ct was still 26.5- MUCH lower than used in widespread testing.

And at 21 days, 2 weeks beyond transmissibility Ct was still 35! Still below that required to test positive most everywhere! Image
The chances of detecting live virus decreased by 33% with each increment in Ct. Image
Read 7 tweets
TNK Profile picture
21 Nov
Two new studies today effectively destroying the gov’s response to C19.

✅Stringent measures have no correlation to outcome

✅No evidence of asymptomatic spread.

Banish the myths of lockdown effectiveness and “silent spread” and we are back to normal.
First, this study shows death rates were influenced by factors like geography and elderly population (life expectancy) but NOT by stringency of Gov imposed measures frontiersin.org/articles/10.33…
Second, a study of 10M (!) folks post lockdown in China showed ZERO transmission from asymptomatic individuals.
Read 6 tweets
TNK Profile picture
14 Nov
Cov19 analysis for State of RI. RI was hit hard in the Spring like other nearby states. Are we setting up for round 2 or is something else happening? Read on. 1/x
First we look at testing. RI breaks out new tests and repeat tests. Note testing is up huge since Spring, but 75% of the tests are now retests. We can see the jump in retests coinciding with colleges and schools starting up. Presumably most of these retests are mandated screening
We are going to ignore “cases” as a metric because anyone paying attention knows that cases alone is useless. Test positivity rate though can be useful. Here we see that first time test positivity is up steeply while repeat test positivity is effectively nil.
Read 14 tweets
TNK Profile picture
13 Oct
Home with family and friends for the Holidays? Not if Task “Force” member Dr Birx has her way. Welcome to the “It’s time for Dr Birx to go” magnum opus.
“home with neighbors and friends may not be a safe place in specific communities.”

That’s one of the key messages of Dr Birx’s talk in Boston Friday. Birx has now officially gone completely “off the reservation” as she tours colleges and spreads a special kind of COVID crazy.
It will be clear when reading the low-lites of her talk that Birx has never left April.

Birx is a non-elected appointee who now feels she has the right to tell you to shun and be suspicious of friends and neighbors. You know what’s coming next: “stay away from your family.”
Read 46 tweets
TNK Profile picture
16 Aug
A new way to look at lockdown severity and its effects. We have all heard of the Oxford lockdown stringency index described here bsg.ox.ac.uk/research/resea… which uses 17 indicators to come up with a lockdown stringency score. What if we looked at cumulative stringency? 1/8
By cumulative stringency I mean the area under the stringency curve. I decided to look at the period from Feb 15 to June 30 2020 and sum the daily stringency scores. The max score for this 137 day period would be 13700 = 137 days * 100 max score. 2/8
As with my prior studies I looked at Western Europe. First the cumulative stringency scores, where Sweden is lowest. No surprise, but note Finland Iceland and even Norway score low. 3/8 Image
Read 10 tweets
TNK Profile picture
4 Aug
Imagine if our “leaders”, “experts” and a majority of the population were this rational. Written by a fund manager whom I will not cite unless he requests. 1/8
“Honestly, the policy response is not hard once you accept that (1) this is mitigation not suppression, (2) we have a clear understanding of who is vulnerable and who is not, and (3) 30-40% of the population will be infected (with disease break point at 15-20%)” 2/8
“...regardless of what we do.
If you are vulnerable (old, diabetes, obese, etc.) – take every precaution. Test frequently. Have pulse oximeters to detect if 02 levels are falling. Do all you can to minimize person-to-person contact – and to keep fit and healthy.” 3/8
Read 8 tweets

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