Important: A breakthrough in the Gulf rift in the coming hours, sources tell Al Jazeera aja.me/b5k8f
Kuwait is to issue a statement about a "breakthrough" in the Gulf rift, between Saudi Arabia & Qatar. The breakthrough will be a set of confidence-building measures before a full end of the crisis that began June 2017. Moves to resolve the Saudi-Qatari dispute started last fall.
The gist of it: the imminent breakthrough is to allow Qatari flights over Saudi Arabia, which the US hopes will rattle Iran’s economy. Currently Qatar pays millions of dollars to route over Iran.

nytimes.com/2020/12/02/wor…
Now Bloomberg's report on the imminent announcement:

"The tentative agreement does not involve the three other Arab countries that also severed diplomatic and trade ties with Qatar in June 2017 -- the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Egypt."

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
"The rapprochement is likely to include reopening air space and land borders, an end to the information war Qatar and Saudi Arabia have waged and other confidence-building steps as part of a detailed plan that to gradually rebuild relations, two of the people said."

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More from @hxhassan

6 Nov
Doom & gloom within Arab regime circles about reports of a Biden win. They were hoping Trump would win.

Even if they don’t think Biden would actively be against them, they get how their detractors will have space & multiple advantages perhaps unprecedented in recent decades!
In 2016, it was a whole different world: Arab dictators and their circles were simply intoxicated with their love of the incoming Trump presidency. They saw historic opportunities, and they were right to a certain degree but not entirely.
These regimes will always have friends in DC but things, and they may think their puppets are doing a great job at placing op-eds or forming partnerships here & there; but there are parallel things happening both inside the US & when it comes to their detractors they can’t stop.
Read 12 tweets
18 Oct
Two weeks before the anniversary of the killing of ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdad, ISIS is releasing a new statement from the media outlet specializing in top leadership releases.

The new leader Abu Ibrahim al-Hashemi has not yet made a public statement: cgpolicy.org/articles/exclu…
ISIS releases a statement by its spokesman Abu Hamza al-Qurashi titled "So recount the tales"
In the first 5 minutes, he speaks about the Salafist tenet "obedience to rulers" and attacks it as un-Islamic. He also talks about clerics that preach against rebelling against rulers.

[A key part of why jihadism is part of a theological revolution, just a violent version]
Read 16 tweets
17 Sep
Contrary to what we know, the current leader of the Islamic State (ISIS) was born NOT in Tal Afar, but in a village near Mosul.

An Arab, not a Turkoman.

You heard it here first. - Iraq sources.
Also the detail in my tweet below was going against the conventional wisdom of the Iraqi and the US intel about his ethnicity.

I based my conclusion on internal discussions within ISIS & my understanding of the tribal origins of this "Turkoman" tribe.
Until recently, the US, Iraq & the UN all thought the current leader (Hajji Abdullah or Abdullah Qardash) wasn't really a Quarashi, that he was a Turkoman, and that he was a 'placeholder' until ISIS would appoint an Arab of Qurashi origins per its ideology
Read 17 tweets
12 Sep
In ~5 years, and don’t hold any of this against me:

• Israel will have its 1st base in the Gulf
• Turkey will control a zone from northern Iraq to northern Syria
• Turkey will expand Libya presence
• Egypt & Sudan will form something along the lines of a “Nile Confederation”
A military base in the Arab side of the Persian Gulf.
The normalization with tiny countries in the Gulf may indeed seem to be non-events. But, in that bubble, I think this process will produce interesting changes in the future. Normalization will have a snowball effect that’ll drag with it both Saudi Arabia & Qatar as party to it.
Read 6 tweets
6 Aug
A groundbreaking detail buried deep in the lawsuit filed by former Saudi intelligence chief against the crown prince MBS in US courts:

MBS *encouraged* Vladmir Putin's military intervention in Syria in September 2015, which enraged then CIA chief John Brennan.
Truly amazing, those meetings happened at least two months before Russia's September 2015 intervention in Syria. At the time the US acted surprised by Moscow's decision to deploy forces to Syria, while Riyadh was supposedly helping the Syrian opposition:

Another crazy detail is that MBS was convinced that Aljabri was responsible for the CIA conclusion that MBS was directly responsible for the murder of Jamal Khashoggi.
Read 9 tweets
9 Jul
One thing I’ll always be proud of is that we provided Husham with the platform & resources to publish his work almost weekly. We had big plans, ideas for longterm projects & to publish more regularly. Others only used him for quotes, and ignored his published work.
He had so much to produce, he truly deserved a whole team dedicated to his work. You can find his work here cgpolicy.org/articles/isis-…
Apart from the consistent scoop-based work @CGPdc published, the first major project he had submitted will be the first of its kind on Iraq. Watch this space.
Read 7 tweets

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