Yesterday, @theNASEM released a new report on best practices for testing strategies at colleges, as well as a report on encouraging protective public health behaviors on campuses. @franciediep wrote an excellent summary here. A few key points on both: chronicle.com/article/live-c…
Let's start with testing.
- Testing is one part of a comprehensive strategy
- Routine collection and analysis of data necessary
- Positive tests should be isolated in hours (modeling assumes this)
- Compliance expectations should be communicated nap.edu/download/26005
"As one webinar participant remarked, 'Testing is like electricity....You can have college without it, but you really can’t function very well.'"
On behaviors:
- Don't focus on socially undesirable behaviors; focus on the common good
- Use trusted messengers with attention to risks and rewards
- Highlight positive aspects of behavior change
- Avoid repeating misinformation, even to debunk it nap.edu/download/26004
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In a few weeks, Pfizer is expected to have its first shipment of vaccine doses ready for administration, pending vaccine approval. How many doses is each state allocated? I went through as many local media sites/press conferences available to find out. (thread)
Most, if not all, states will prioritize healthcare workers in their initial vaccine distribution plans. @KFF data from 2018 show us how many healthcare workers (around 17 million nationally) are in each state.
Pfizer expects around 6.4 million doses in its first round of shipments on December 15. Moderna will then ship an initial round of vaccines. A few weeks later, according to most states, Pfizer will ship a second round of shipments for the first group's second doses, and so on.
I urge all Americans to watch @beijingloafer's gripping new film, 76 Days. The film details the resilience, compassion and dignity displayed by Wuhan's healthcare workers during the first 76 days of the lockdown, treating patients in 4 hospitals. 76daysfilm.com/watch
One particularly poignant scene was at the end, where Yang Li, the head ICU nurse at Wuhan Red Cross Hospital, calls families of the dead to return their phones and other belongings. "We really tried everything," she says as she consoles one family member. nytimes.com/2020/12/03/mov…
Over the past few days, @ashishkjha has spoken to the successes of California at ramping up testing and controlling a summer surge in cases. When we compare California's success to a state undergoing a surge (Wisconsin), we see the secret lies in testing. (thread)
Normalized for population, Wisconsin's current surge is much more serious than California's at the end of the summer. California was able to buck the trend with micro-targeting (on a county level) and a phased reopening, as well as an influx in testing.
The results are quite impressive. This graph shows the new tests (blue) and new cases (yellow) in each state. In response to a surge in June, California was quick to ramp up testing. In contrast, Wisconsin's daily tests actually decreased in August, leading to a September surge.
Much has been said about the success of @broadinstitute's genomics lab, which provides testing for 108 colleges in the Northeast. When we use @nytimes data to compare 88 of the 108 schools vs. 1400+ in the country, we see significantly lower case counts in schools that use Broad.
The map above displays Covid-19 cases per 1,000 students (to account for population differences) at 88 of the 108 schools that have contracted Broad for testing (all that are on this list). Many schools' case counts have been in the single digits. broadinstitute.org/news/broad-ins…
The results are wildly impressive — colleges that have contracted Broad for testing have an average of 4 cases per 1,000 students, compared to an average of 14.1 cases per 1,000 students of the other 1300+ schools in the @nytimes dataset. nytimes.com/interactive/20…
#TheInsiders: A Warning from Former Trump Officials — a CNN special — starts now. Looking forward to hearing from @OliviaTroye and @RickABright on pandemic response.
"I think it’s beyond worry," @RickABright says. "I know that his actions and his words and the things he is doing now are extending the duration and the magnitude of this pandemic."
"I saw Dr. Fauci brief repeatedly," @OliviaTroye says. "I saw people in the room during the meetings — people, senior White House officials — look away and roll their eyes."
Updated this week's College Watchlist with latest case counts. Currently tracking 104,746 total cases at 92 colleges. Number of colleges in each threshold group (vs. last week):
At the top of the list for cases in the last 7 days:
- Clemson University - 260
- University of Florida - 219
- University of Central Florida - 218
- Miami University-Oxford - 204
- Brigham Young University - 156
⅗ were in the top 5 last week.
While according to official school data, cases are slowing down compared to the beginning of the semester, I am concerned about cases and spread undetected as some students may not be tested through the college. My College Towns dashboard aims to fix this. public.tableau.com/views/Covid-19…