Thread by @bhrenton

In a few weeks, Pfizer is expected to have its first shipment of vaccine doses ready for administration, pending vaccine approval. How many doses is each state allocated? I went through as many local media sites/press conferences available to find out. (thread)

Most, if not all, states will prioritize healthcare workers in their initial vaccine distribution plans. @KFF data from 2018 show us how many healthcare workers (around 17 million nationally) are in each state.

kff.org/other/state-in…

Pfizer expects around 6.4 million doses in its first round of shipments on December 15. Moderna will then ship an initial round of vaccines. A few weeks later, according to most states, Pfizer will ship a second round of shipments for the first group's second doses, and so on.

Most states have had their initial vaccine allocation projections slashed by ⅔, and many states do not have enough funding through health departments for complete distribution.
kff.org/coronavirus-co…

Through scouring the internet, I was able to find dose allocation numbers for 26/51 (states + DC) jurisdictions. 24 of those specified how many their state would be getting in the first round of Pfizer vaccine. 3 specified for the 2nd shipment of Pfizer and 8 for Moderna.

Here's a map showing the dose allocation numbers for the first shipment of Pfizer vaccines. The total quantity here amounts to 1.2 million doses. Remember that this number of doses is equal to the number of people, since their second doses will come later (it seems).

Here's a map for the total number of doses (often 2 Pfizer shipments and Moderna) for the month of December. This total is 3.9 million doses.

It's worth noting that there's a strong correlation between the number of healthcare workers in a given state and the state's population (which makes sense).

Based on the numbers we have here, it seems that Operation Warp Speed is allocating the first shipment of Pfizer doses by taking ~0.85% of the state's total population, as there is a larger correlation between population and doses than healthcare workers and doses.

Here's the full data table of all these numbers sourced from various news sites/press conferences by governors. I expect in the coming days we will get more information from more states, and I will update accordingly. Welcome your feedback.
public.flourish.studio/visualisation/…

Appendix: Apologies for not including maps per capita. Here are doses per 1,000 residents for the first Pfizer shipment and through December.

Mean for 1st Pfizer: 7.97 doses/1,000
Mean for December: 19.39 doses/1,000