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4 Dec, 7 tweets, 3 min read
Good to have a couple of real experts explaining outstanding issues in UK-EU talks are not, as the UK government would have it, just fish. Though EU Member States have to show they are fighting for their fishing fleets.
I don't think Fabian has been knowingly optimistic of prospects for a UK-EU deal for months, but he will reflect wider EU thinking.
It seems most likely that yesterday's setback was the UK thinking a concession would solve the whole Level Playing Field issue, and being surprised when it didn't. This appears to be a pattern. But doesn't mean it is unsolvable.
Key issue is whether leaders on both sides can compromise in the face of domestic opposition and lack of trust. Conservative leaders taking on anti-EU membership and MPs is risky, EU Member States and MEPs won't veto but will make other subjects harder thetimes.co.uk/edition/commen…
Ultimately, still, we wait for the Prime Minister. It becomes ever clearer the UK hope was negotiations would go so well his decision would be easy and all but the most anti-EU would support him. Always a short-sighted strategy. And the reason we still don't know deal or not.
And sadly, we don't even know if it will be this weekend or not. Because neither side it seems will walk out.

We wait. But best as before to treat all briefings with great suspicion. Deep politics is at work.
Maybe not this weekend after all 😬 This is @tconnellyRTE and it seems like as I suggested yesterday there are still too many issues outstanding rte.ie/news/2020/1204…

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More from @DavidHenigUK

David Henig Profile picture
6 Dec
We need to talk about UK politics. More specifically we need to talk about the absence of opposition to a no-deal Brexit risking Scottish independence, Northern Irish peace, the end of the mass market car industry, more expensive food, and damaged relations with US and EU 1/n
Project fear and the red wall. The first meaning that every serious threat, such as that of Nissan that their plant will be unsustainable, is dismissed with little discussion. The red wall, apparently so angry with Labour about the EU they are afraid to have a position. 2/
Because 'sovereignty' apparently. But a particularly nefarious form of sovereignty in which the normal kind of things you discuss in a Free Trade Agreement - shared rules, access to waters - become when discussed with the EU unacceptable infringements and threats. 3/
Read 13 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
5 Dec
Nobody walks away, but still no progress?
What are deadlines anyway?
No hopes being raised here. Or lowered. Last chance saloon. And what about Northern Ireland?
Read 10 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
5 Dec
Well, this.

But something else - trust. So many apparently 'extra' EU demands, or indeed the UK refusal, come down to a lack of trust between the parties.

The usually loose rules tied to the preferential access of a Free Trade Agreement rely on trust which isn't present. Yet.. Image
The reason there might be a deal, even in the absence of the normally essential trust, is some underlying belief on both sides that no deal will mean worse relations. And that then is the joint gamble that will be needed by the leaders, and...
The leaders if they find a way forward will then have to sell their joint gamble to their domestic constituencies. I don't think this time the UK can declare outright victory, for EU could then veto. But the PM isn't just going to roll over the ERG. Fine margins. We wait.
Read 6 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
4 Dec
Blunt hardly starts to describe this letter. I've been asked a few times whether business is ready for January 1 and always reply that none I have spoken with are completely confident. So many individual changes within the one big change. Image
Worth noting that a Free Trade Agreement only sets out the framework for trade relations between countries. Implementation is another matter. Now I hear some such discussions have happened, but as per the deal as a whole, time running out. theguardian.com/politics/2020/…
Just for some Friday afternoon fun I started scanning through the original drafts of an FTA prepared by the EU and UK to get some sense of what might be in text, and what would need operational clarification. Rather a lot of the latter, sorry...
Read 11 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
3 Dec
Reasonable to assume fresh talk of an EU deadline is behind the signs of greater negotiating activity last night. But a deal still, as it has been all year, a 50:50 shot in the hands of one man.

He wanted to be Prime Minister. But not necessarily to make big decisions.
Given how much Ireland has at stake, yes they hope there will be a deal. But not theirs to broker this time round, this is cheerleading.
I suddenly wonder about the UK and EU announcing a deal this weekend then the UK government reintroducing the Internal Market Bill clauses on Northern Ireland next week. UK says here's the deal and keeps Brexiteers happy. What would the EU do?
Read 17 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
2 Dec
This is the false impression that UK officials have had for four and a half years that EU negotiations with third countries always go to the last minute. That's internal negotiations.

Also the belief in this negotiation that the EU will concede if we wait long enough.
Partly the EU's fault for never properly setting a deadline. But also a sign of continuing UK ignorance of trade agreements that thinks a few days from agreement to implementation is in any way possible.

But also - inviting the EU to end talks.
EU approach traditionally is that no third country can ever beat the EU for playing the long game. So if applied to the UK it would be to say we've missed the deadline for January but we'll keep talking and perhaps we'll have an agreement in 2021.
Read 4 tweets

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