Jon Worth Profile picture
3 Dec, 11 tweets, 3 min read
"Red wall voters will not forgive Boris Johnson if he sells out to get a trade deal with Brussels, polls show"

It's in The Sun. Harry Cole wrote it...

So let's dig a little

thesun.co.uk/news/13366890/…
The poll was done by @SavantaComRes and the PDF of the results is here: …1ia7ki31qqub1-wpengine.netdna-ssl.com/wp-content/upl…
P. 57
If this 'no deal' scenario occurs, to what extent would you be
more or less likely to vote Conservative at the next General Election?

+ likely, total: 20%
no difference: 41%
- likely, total: 32%
P. 59

I don't actually know what these questions mean

"The UK establishes a new relationship with the EU that is based on EU law" What *is* that?
"The UK maintains political alignment with the EU after the Brexit Transition Period, such as a common foreign and security policy" What is political alignment? And does CFSP work?

"The UK cannot pass its own laws and ensure its courts enforce them" Oh come on.
And the most popular answer in all cases, regarding voting Conservative: makes no difference
Q3 on P. 74 is 🤯
Like where do you even *begin* with this?

Jeez. WTO constrains what tariffs the UK can set. Do we mean tariffs on goods to/from the EU, or generally?

The UK *has already* done a trade deal with Japan. No variant of Brexit now available stops this. This is 🤪
Similarly there are no payments into the budget.

And yes, fishing. "Full control". At least that one is sort of understandable.
You may have asked these people whether getting a 🦄 would make them more or less likely to vote Tory.

This is no fault of Savanta ComRes as they were just asking the questions. The problem is the politics of those who commissioned the poll, and how the media then twists it.
This. Is. Abject.

/ends

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More from @jonworth

4 Dec
I know that reading the tea leaves, or waiting for white smoke is more fun (and easier) than policy detail...

... but while we wait for the former, let's have a go at the latter.

And I need your contributions.

A thread...
We know the main areas of disagreement preventing a #Brexit Deal happening - fish, Level Playing Field, and governance.

We don't know much about where the compromise is to be found on each.

So let's have a go.
Before starting on the three areas, a word about the UK approach - Johnson needs to be able to spin a Deal as taking back control of fish, laws and borders.

The last of the three is basically done, it's the first two that matter.
Read 17 tweets
3 Dec
On 🇬🇧 banning live 🐄🐖🐑 *exports*

How much of this is an island mentality thing?

Surely it's not about *where* animals go (i.e. outside 🇬🇧 ought to be immaterial), but *how* long the transport is, and under what conditions?

Ashford to Carlisle worse than Ashford to Lille...
This is also the reason why 🇪🇺 wouldn't ban live *exports*

Kostrzyn nad Odrą 🇵🇱 to Berlin 🇩🇪 is 90 mins 🚛
Kostrzyn nad Odrą 🇵🇱 to Warsaw 🇵🇱 is 300 mins 🚛
And also providing humans keep eating meat (highly likely) & animals are not slaughtered where they're reared (also highly likely), you cannot avoid live transport of animals

Don't get me wrong - doing this humanely is *vital*

But banning *exports* is an island centric solution
Read 4 tweets
3 Dec
New blog post: "Notes on the timetable for a Deal, and how No Deal might play out"

This is less a complete argument, and more a framework to understand what's going on with Brexit between now and January

jonworth.eu/notes-on-the-t…
There are 4 points

First, will there be a Deal? I still think No Deal, short term, is marginally more likely than a Deal is, but as this is all in Johnson's head we can't really know currently
Second, the opportunity for a Deal if it's not struck by Monday lunchtime drops markedly - because ratification becomes even harder, and the UK Govt is adding provocation with the Finance Bill and IM Bill (that it could drop, but 💥 if it doesn't)
Read 6 tweets
3 Dec
What really is the Brexit talks deadline now? I have read so many different views I am lost. Please answer this one in good faith - it's about what WILL happen, not what you WANT to happen!
What's the case for each?

End of the day Friday (tomorrow) is this story irishtimes.com/business/econo… and similar from the FT. Not agreeing this week means it all runs out of time
End of the day Sunday is essentially an extension of that - but would be based on the idea that Johnson actually could act to OK something on a weekend. Pretty sure Barnier and Frost will persist over the weekend if they have to...
Read 6 tweets
2 Dec
In reaction to my earlier tweets about poor quality journalism (and the absence of consequence for writing what's obviously wrong), some people have said "well I better get the news from the source"

I'm not sure
A lot of my friends are journalists. And some of what they have to do is nightmarish - they have to make sense of things that are next to impossible to understand, to churn out stories on topics that drop onto their plate, and do it immediately and with next to no budget
It's hence inevitable that things are going to go wrong

The question then comes: well what happens when things go wrong?

A good journalist will then realise what happened, and seek to fix it. A bad one will ignore reasoned critique and repeat the error
Read 11 tweets
30 Nov
OK. Deep breath. And a mea culpa.

My earlier post about Labour abstaining on a vote on a Brexit Deal was based on there not being a "Meaningful Vote" but just a motion - because MPs had voted in June to not give themselves a "Meaningful Vote".
But this being Brexit, and UK Parliamentary procedure being complicated and - to outsiders unclear - I was wrong to think it was so clear cut, and brilliant legal and Parliament nerds @GeorgePeretzQC @Brigid_Fowler & @nvonwestenholz helped get to the bottom of it.
If *no* primary legislation were needed in the UK, then the Constitutional Reform and Governance Act applies, giving the Commons a potential delaying power... which as time is so tight is significant.
Read 7 tweets

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