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Jonah Lupton 🇺🇸 Profile picture
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3 Dec, 6 tweets, 2 min read
Not sure what clown built the algo that sold $DOCU at $218 AH after they just reported 53% YoY revenue growth but they should probably find a new career.

This is why humans are better investors than machines 😂

PS: Long $DOCU 🔥 Image
Not to call out Dan b/c he seems like a good guy but this is a bad take amd why you’ll put up shitty investment returns if you only listen to talking heads on TV.

Get ready for 2021 when I’m bringing you a live show about making more FUCKING money in the stock market.
RBC doing some good work today and raising $DOCU price target to $325 which is 32% upside from here Image
Just an FYI on $DOCU with regards to my valuation model...

Using all the current NTM analyst estimates my model is giving me a 12 month price target of $248

If I increase NTM estimates to what I think they’ll be raised to it increases the 12 month price target to $312.
This is why the model I’ve created and will make public in early 2021 will include the ability to override any of the 95+ data points with numbers that you believe are more accurate than current consensus estimates from the analysts.
Because any valuation/quant model is only as good as the data that’s feeding into it. If the consensus estimates are too low then the price target my model generates will also be too low.

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More from @JonahLupton

Jonah Lupton 🇺🇸 Profile picture
5 Dec
We’re living in the golden age of stock investing for several reasons:

1) There’s so much data & information available compared to 5-10 years ago

2) There’s an incredible number of innovative, disruptive companies to invest in

3) $0 commissions on most platforms

4)FinTwit
In my opinion If you’re looking to generate extraordinary returns you need to have a concentrated portfolio of stocks and sector/thematic ETFs.

This can be 15-35 holdings but after that you’re doing yourself a disservice.
Nobody ever talks about the negative impact that over-diversification can have on your portfolio returns.
Read 15 tweets
Jonah Lupton 🇺🇸 Profile picture
4 Dec
Apparently they are rumors starting to circulate that $CSCO is looking at $FSLY as a possible acquisition target. This deal would make a ton of sense for $CSCO and allow $FSLY to keep working with their big cloud hosting/infrastructure partners like AWS, Azure and GCP.
As a $FSLY shareholder I have mixed feelings because I think this could be a $250+ stock in 2-3 years.

$CSCO would need to pay at least $15B for $FSLY which puts the price tag at approx $130/share.

Not sure $CSCO is willing to pay 30x 2021 sales but we might find out soon.
As of the end of Q3 $CSCO had $30 billion of cash on their balance sheet and their market cap currently stands at $187 billion so doing this deal would be easy. My guess is a 60% cash and 40% stock deal makes the most sense.
Read 9 tweets
Jonah Lupton 🇺🇸 Profile picture
17 Nov
Yesterday we got the news $TSLA is going into the S&P 500. Based on the $5-6 trillion of S&P Index assets those funds/ETFs will need to buy approximately $65-75 billion of $TSLA stock over the next 4+ weeks unless the S&P committee extends the allocation requirement into Q1.
Now that we know this is finally happening there's a floor on $TSLA stock for the near term. There are very few reasons why anyone that owns $TSLA stock should be a seller right now. This is going to make it harder for these funds to not bid up the price.
With this news I believe we see $TSLA at $500+ by end of week, $550+ by end of year, $600+ by end of Q1 and possibly $650-700 by end of 2021.

Now let me explain why... we already know that @ElonMusk owns 18-20% of $TSLA stock and he's not selling.
Read 12 tweets
Jonah Lupton 🇺🇸 Profile picture
16 Nov
$TSLA is going into the S&P 500 🥳

I’ve been saying for 4-6 months this was a question of WHEN not IF.

Even though $TSLA is up 10% after hours I’d still be buying. I’ll post more about this tonight but this is the catalyst that takes $TSLA to $525+ over the next couple months.
In full disclosure $TSLA is my largest position at 9%.
$525 is actually very conservative but that’s just for the short term (1-2 months).

My 2021 year end price target for $TSLA was $580 without the S&P inclusion and $675 with the S&P inclusion.

Giddy up 🚀🚀🚀🚀
Read 4 tweets
Jonah Lupton 🇺🇸 Profile picture
16 Nov
We just got the $MRNA trial results and they appear to be good, approximately 95% success rate. I'm no vaccine expert but this will trigger another rotation from growth to value. My guess is that it's not nearly as severe as last Monday.
If you were waiting to rotate from growth to value you would have done so last week. Many of the growth stocks are 15-25% off their highs so multiples have already contracted.

As much as I want to trim pre-market in case we get a big selloff, it's hard to sell at current prices.
These vaccines might start helping us in 4-6 months but don't forget we're still hitting new records every day in the # of new Covid cases which as forced some states back into partial lockdowns.

When I look through my growth stocks I expect all of them to keep crushing numbers.
Read 9 tweets
Jonah Lupton 🇺🇸 Profile picture
15 Nov
We just finished rehearsing our upcoming “Investing Fundamentals” webinar series that runs Monday to Thursday at 1pm EST plus 90 minutes of Q&A.

All sessions will be recorded & available later that day.

More info and registration easyinvesting.teachable.com/p/jonahlupton

DM me w/ any questions.
If you have less than 2 years of investment experience you’ll benefit from this webinar series.

We put together 80+ slides of content plus resource guides, portfolio templates, asset allocation models and much more.

This webinar will teach you how to be a better investor.
During the live sessions you’ll be able to ask us questions through the chat box on Zoom.

After the webinar series is over you’ll have 10 days to email us any questions then on December 1st we’ll host a live 90+ minute Q&A session. TBH, we’ll go 3+ hours if needed.
Read 5 tweets

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