I’ve been saying for 4-6 months this was a question of WHEN not IF.
Even though $TSLA is up 10% after hours I’d still be buying. I’ll post more about this tonight but this is the catalyst that takes $TSLA to $525+ over the next couple months.
In full disclosure $TSLA is my largest position at 9%.
$525 is actually very conservative but that’s just for the short term (1-2 months).
My 2021 year end price target for $TSLA was $580 without the S&P inclusion and $675 with the S&P inclusion.
Giddy up 🚀🚀🚀🚀
I need to crunch the numbers tonight but there’s roughly $6T in S&P 500 index funds and $30T in total S&P 500 market cap / $420B $TSLA market cap (with AH pop) = 1.4% x $6T = $84B of $TSLA stock that will need to be bought by the S&P index funds.
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Yesterday we got the news $TSLA is going into the S&P 500. Based on the $5-6 trillion of S&P Index assets those funds/ETFs will need to buy approximately $65-75 billion of $TSLA stock over the next 4+ weeks unless the S&P committee extends the allocation requirement into Q1.
Now that we know this is finally happening there's a floor on $TSLA stock for the near term. There are very few reasons why anyone that owns $TSLA stock should be a seller right now. This is going to make it harder for these funds to not bid up the price.
With this news I believe we see $TSLA at $500+ by end of week, $550+ by end of year, $600+ by end of Q1 and possibly $650-700 by end of 2021.
Now let me explain why... we already know that @elonmusk owns 18-20% of $TSLA stock and he's not selling.
We just got the $MRNA trial results and they appear to be good, approximately 95% success rate. I'm no vaccine expert but this will trigger another rotation from growth to value. My guess is that it's not nearly as severe as last Monday.
If you were waiting to rotate from growth to value you would have done so last week. Many of the growth stocks are 15-25% off their highs so multiples have already contracted.
As much as I want to trim pre-market in case we get a big selloff, it's hard to sell at current prices.
These vaccines might start helping us in 4-6 months but don't forget we're still hitting new records every day in the # of new Covid cases which as forced some states back into partial lockdowns.
When I look through my growth stocks I expect all of them to keep crushing numbers.
If you have less than 2 years of investment experience you’ll benefit from this webinar series.
We put together 80+ slides of content plus resource guides, portfolio templates, asset allocation models and much more.
This webinar will teach you how to be a better investor.
During the live sessions you’ll be able to ask us questions through the chat box on Zoom.
After the webinar series is over you’ll have 10 days to email us any questions then on December 1st we’ll host a live 90+ minute Q&A session. TBH, we’ll go 3+ hours if needed.
My investment webinar series will start on Monday, November 16th and go through Friday, November 20th (time is still TBD).
Each day will consist of a 60 minute live session covering approximately 25 slides.
On the last day we’ll be doing 60 minutes of Q&A.
Here’s a quick overview of the sessions. When we send out the registration links later this week or early next week we’ll provide a more detailed outline.
We’re going to try and do the live sessions through Zoom with all of the recordings and slides available on @Teachable
Session 1:
• The benefits and fundamentals of investing
• Types of investment accounts
• Different types of asset classes
I think we need to have a little chat about entry points into positions and why waiting for the “perfect” price is usually a pointless and self-defeating strategy.
At least 25-30 times per day I get a direct tweet or DM from someone that goes something like this “I really like $CRWD or $TSLA or $TDOC but I’m not sure if I should buy today or wait and see if it pulls back another 2-3%?”
Of course we all want to buy our stocks at the lowest price possible but none of us are smart enough to know when that will be.
Let me share the same advice with you all that I share in my DM’s.
I’ve spent the last week improving my quant model which is up to 25 data points/signals...it’s definitely looking stronger.
For the next few hours if you want to quote retweet this with one of your stocks I’ll run it through my quant model and give you a 12 month price target.
FWIW, after $TSLA reported earnings yesterday my model updated and the new 12 month price targets are:
$602 = based on the data
$718 = based on data plus S&P inclusion
Last Friday the model told me to sell $TWLO $BAND $DDOG and buy $FB $PINS $NLS which has certainly paid off.
As I become more comfortable with my model, the data and the projections I’ll use it to assist me on when to be buying/adding and when to be trimming/selling.