We're not through a whole year yet, but patterns are emerging, and I wanted to take a closer look.
We'll start with NY/IL who both are N. Temperate but not exactly the same climate pattern.
/1
Now FL/TX.
FL is closest to true N. Tropical.
TX is very large with varying climates. Some are almost as far north as the southern tip of IL but most pop is further south.
Like IL vs. NY, we would not expect TX to mirror FL exactly but to be much closer to FL than IL/NY.
/2
Now all 4 together. Notice the "W" shape mixing the N Temperate with N Tropical.
Also notice the obvious high winter peak for NY/IL that drops to near-zero in summer.
Notice the lower wave pattern for FL/TX that never gets to zero. Summer peak occurs; winter peak higher?
/3
The pattern seems unaffected by Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions (NPIs). However, economic health, children's education, and Constitutional freedom are heavily-affected.
We need the CDC, academia, and gov't leadership to be honest about the true results and costs of NPIs.
/End
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- Hospitalizations bottomed 4 weeks ago and then increased tangibly 2 weeks ago. That new increase trend already started abating the past 4 days
- Reported Deaths down 83 Week-over-Week (WoW)
/1
Graph 2: COVID ICU Census vs. Deaths (7DayAvg) vs. Daily Detected Cases
***Case hunting now in mega-hyperdrive and some states now include antigen positives (not antibody)
- 7-Day-Avg Reported Deaths down 15 WoW
- ICUs sizable jump last 2 weeks but peaking again already
/2
Graph 3: Daily Tests + Detected Cases + Case Positivity
***Last 10+ days have seen a real increase in Pos% that coincides with a bump in national CLI
- Test Positivity up 1.0 from trough
- Daily Test avg above 1M for 26 days
- Increase rate much lower than June surge
- Hospitalizations turned back down but still slightly up Week-over-Week (WoW)
- Hosps < 1/2 of peak
- Reported Deaths DOWN 57 WoW.
*Still a LOT of legacy death laundering (very old deaths counted as new)
/1
Graph 2: COVID ICU Census vs. Deaths (7DayAvg) vs. Daily Detected Cases
***Case hunting is in hyperdrive
- 7-Day-Avg Reported Deaths down 67 WoW
- ICUs still dropping
- Cases from mass/forced college testing + case definition changes still driving artificial increase?
/2
Graph 3: Daily Tests + Detected Cases + Case Positivity
***Why are so many being tested daily, and who are they? CLI is at a national record low
- Test Positivity down 0.3%
- Tests up 26k WoW
- Detected Cases up 8,000 WoW (big jump relative to test increase)
- Hospitalizations have the first Week-over-Week (Wow) rise since late July
- Reported Deaths DOWN 162 WoW. Still a LOT of legacy death laundering (very old deaths counted as new)
/1
Graph 2: COVID ICU Census vs. Deaths (7DayAvg) vs. Daily Detected Cases
***Still seeing large backlog dumps of old deaths
- 7-Day-Avg Reported Deaths down 75 WoW
- ICUs keep dropping
- "Cases" from mass/forced college testing + case definition changes = artificial increase
/2
Graph 3: Daily Tests + Detected Cases + Case Positivity
***Still don't see how so many tests are being done daily. Who are the people getting tested and why?
- Test Positivity down 0.5%
- Tests up 110k WoW
- Detected Cases up 214 WoW (0.2% Positivity)