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John Kemp Profile picture
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4 Dec, 5 tweets, 2 min read
GLOBAL OIL MARKET - current situation and outlook for 2021 (When I joined Reuters, I told my boss @richardmably my ambition was to tell a story without words, only charts):
GLOBAL OIL MARKET - cyclical position:
GLOBAL OIL MARKET - prices, inventories and OPEC response:
GLOBAL OIL MARKET - production, consumption and OPEC reaction function:
GLOBAL OIL MARKET - stylised cycle and current position:

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More from @JKempEnergy

John Kemp Profile picture
27 May
“ONE COUNTRY, TWO SYSTEMS,” formula for Hong Kong is ending. Protestors reject China’s sovereignty; China rejects HKSAR legal autonomy; and United States no longer willing to treat HKSAR as a separate economic and financial territory: state.gov/prc-national-p…
OCTS was based on a deliberate ambiguity about the territory’s status following the transfer of sovereignty from Britain to China, one that obscured differences over culture, identity, economic functions and ultimate control. But ambiguity has come under increasing strain
OCTS required ambiguity at multiple levels: social, HKSAR, PRC, and international. But at every level the ambiguity has given way to pressure for clarity. And the compromises and contradictions are starting to unravel.
Read 10 tweets
John Kemp Profile picture
27 Sep 19
ECONOMIC GROWTH and technological change has always destroyed huge numbers of jobs in old industries while creating employment in new industries:
* Peasant farmers (enclosure)
* Spinners (steam engines)
* Weavers (power looms)
* Canal workers (railways)
* Coal miners (automation)
* Stokers (oil/gas replace coal)
* Railway workers (automation)
* Secretaries and clerical workers (computers)
* Printers, typesetters (automation, computers)
* Telephone exchange, telegraph workers (automation)
* Switchboard operators (automation)
* Stevedores (containerisation)
Economic growth, productivity gains and technological change have eliminated occupations which employed tens of millions of people over the last 250 years, and the future is unlikely to be any different
Read 8 tweets
John Kemp Profile picture
1 Aug 19
USTR LIGHTHIZER’s negotiating strategy can be summarised as lay out an uncompromising position and then engineer a deadline/crisis to push the negotiations over the line and secure a deal. Current White House has been an enthusiastic supporter of this approach giving 100% backing
LIGHTHIZER’s notable success was the USMCA deal in 2018, but it may have led observers to overestimate the usefulness of his strategy
USMCA only reached conclusion by splitting weaker partner (Mexico) from stronger one (Canada), doing deal with weaker partner and threatening to leave stronger partner isolated if it didn’t sign on
Read 7 tweets
John Kemp Profile picture
22 Apr 19
SOME INFORMAL reflections on the U.S. decision to end all waivers for Iran sanctions:
UNITED STATES, SAUDI ARABIA and UAE have now gone “all-in” on their campaign of maximum financial pressure on Iran through oil sanctions. Few if any more rungs left on the diplomatic escalation ladder
PRESIDENT TRUMP has staked his personal credibility on Saudi Arabia making up barrels lost to sanctions AND avoiding a sustained increase in oil prices (White House can no longer complain that “OPEC” is driving prices higher)
Read 16 tweets
John Kemp Profile picture
8 Jun 18
TARIFFS AND TRADE
Earlier in my career, I focused on trade liberalisation and negotiations
Current articles about trade are generating more heat than light, so I thought I’d offer some observations ...
The General Agreement in Tariffs and Trade was reached in 1947. Tariffs and trade wars during the 1930s made all countries worse off. Policymakers had learned the hard way that there are no winners from a trade war, only losers
GATT 1947 built on the key terms of earlier bilateral trade treaties and turned them into a multilateral general framework (most off the terms in the GATT had appeared in treaties before)
Read 29 tweets

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