, 7 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
USTR LIGHTHIZER’s negotiating strategy can be summarised as lay out an uncompromising position and then engineer a deadline/crisis to push the negotiations over the line and secure a deal. Current White House has been an enthusiastic supporter of this approach giving 100% backing
LIGHTHIZER’s notable success was the USMCA deal in 2018, but it may have led observers to overestimate the usefulness of his strategy
USMCA only reached conclusion by splitting weaker partner (Mexico) from stronger one (Canada), doing deal with weaker partner and threatening to leave stronger partner isolated if it didn’t sign on
USMCA worked because Mexico was in a transition from outgoing right-wing to incoming left-wing administration. Right-wing administration had nothing to lose from deal and wanted to bind its successor. Left-wing administration wanted USMCA off agenda before taking office
LIGHTHIZER’s strategy only worked because of Mexico’s weakness as negotiating partner - amplified by presidential transition
LIGHTHIZER has not had much success with stronger negotiating partners (EU, Japan) or has achieved only modest concessions (South Korea) because his zero-sum approach leaves little things incentive to deal
LIGHTHIZER’s strategy is unlikely to work with more powerful trading partners such as EU and especially China. By constantly escalating and showing no flexibility, his strategy makes recession much more likely
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