Manitoba announced 320 new cases of #COVID19 and 9 more deaths on Friday, Dec. 4, 2020.
Active cases: 9,172*
Total caseload: 18,069
Recovered: 8,535
Deaths: 362
*Overstated due to backlog in calling patients to designate active cases as recovered.
Active cases: 9,172*
Total caseload: 18,069
Recovered: 8,535
Deaths: 362
*Overstated due to backlog in calling patients to designate active cases as recovered.
Manitoba #COVID19 patients in hospital: 361 (up 4, new record)
In ICU: 55* (up three, new record)
*Understated. The count does not include long-term COVID patients Shared Health no longer considers contagious but who still require intensive care.
In ICU: 55* (up three, new record)
*Understated. The count does not include long-term COVID patients Shared Health no longer considers contagious but who still require intensive care.
The latest Manitobans to succumb to #COVID19:
• An Interlake-Eastern woman in her 50s
• A Winnipeg man in his 60s
• A Southern man in his 70s
• A Southern woman in her 80s
• A Winnipeg woman in her 80s (Lions Manor outbreak)
1/2
• An Interlake-Eastern woman in her 50s
• A Winnipeg man in his 60s
• A Southern man in his 70s
• A Southern woman in her 80s
• A Winnipeg woman in her 80s (Lions Manor outbreak)
1/2
• Two Prairie Mountain women in their 90s (Fairview Personal Care Home outbreak)
• A Winnipeg man in his 90s (Holy Family outbreak)
• A Winnipeg man in his 90s
• A Winnipeg man in his 90s (Holy Family outbreak)
• A Winnipeg man in his 90s
Regional breakdown of new Manitoba #COVID19 cases:
200 Winnipeg
54 Southern
30 Northern
20 Prairie Mountain
16 Interlake-Eastern
200 Winnipeg
54 Southern
30 Northern
20 Prairie Mountain
16 Interlake-Eastern
New outbreak:
Brandon Correctional Centre, Brandon
Brandon Correctional Centre, Brandon
Siragusa:
116 ICU patients of all kinds
55 ICU patients with #COVID19
43 COVID patients in ICU on ventilators
116 ICU patients of all kinds
55 ICU patients with #COVID19
43 COVID patients in ICU on ventilators
The province is releasing some modelling, but it only extends to the end of December.
Models show restrictions prevented max-expansion ICU capacity of 173 beds from getting overwhelmed on Nov. 23.
Models show restrictions prevented max-expansion ICU capacity of 173 beds from getting overwhelmed on Nov. 23.
Three in 48 Manitoba cases wound up hospitalized.
Hospitalization rate: 6.3 per cent
Hospitalization rate: 6.3 per cent
Both are in line with worldwide averages. Slightly higher fatality rate.
Roussin says restrictions this fall did not work as well as he expected early on but tough restrictions imposed in November has kept case numbers from climbing.
Numbers in the hudreds are still too high ... we end with more new hospitalizations every day than recoveries and hospital deaths, combined.
Health-care system can't handle it. But worst-case scenario was avoided.
Health-care system can't handle it. But worst-case scenario was avoided.
Some evidence cases are going down, but too slowly.
All but certain red restrictions will remain in place past Dec. 11.
All but certain red restrictions will remain in place past Dec. 11.
Roussin says tweaks to restrictions will be made.
Should be announced early next week.
Should be announced early next week.
Too soon to say if any relief will be offered from restrictions before Christmas.
Roussin: Model just projects COVID numbers. Doesn't include economic factors. Just shows a range of outcomes.
Helps set policies. That is it.
Helps set policies. That is it.
Roussin: If no restrictions were put in place, we'd see between 419 and 1,055 cases per day by Dec. 6, according to the model.
That's an average of 737 new cases per day.
We are seeing averages in the 300-400 range.
[Progress, but not good enough]
That's an average of 737 new cases per day.
We are seeing averages in the 300-400 range.
[Progress, but not good enough]
To dumb this down even further:
On a scale of one to four, with one being 🕺🍾🎂🌈and four being 😡😭💀☠️, we're at a three.
On a scale of one to four, with one being 🕺🍾🎂🌈and four being 😡😭💀☠️, we're at a three.
Siragusa: Some COVID patients only need days of care.
Others stay for weeks in ICU.
Others stay for weeks in ICU.
Siragusa: COVID patients could make up 50% of all hospital patients by Dec. 17.
The problem is, there are many other medical conditions that require hospitalization.
Siragusa: Outbreaks among more vulnerable populations will push hospitalizations numbers even higher.
[This is a euphemism. She is saying it is crucial to protect the homeless population and people crowded into substandard housing.]
[This is a euphemism. She is saying it is crucial to protect the homeless population and people crowded into substandard housing.]
Roussin:
We need restrictions *and* compliance.
The more the public buys in, the faster the cases drop.
We need restrictions *and* compliance.
The more the public buys in, the faster the cases drop.
Roussin: "The public has a significant role in determining how successful these measures will be."
Roussin: Follow advice and orders, and you can see your peeps again.
[Yes, I paraphrased.]
Roussin asked why not release modelling earlier?
He says they lose value, too far out.
Says he will release modelling more frequently in the future.
He says they lose value, too far out.
Says he will release modelling more frequently in the future.
Siragusa asked what she has to say to people frustrated by the restrictions and feel they aren't working well enough.
Says she hopes a little more control of the virus will allow some restrictions to be lifted.
Can't do that yet.
Says she hopes a little more control of the virus will allow some restrictions to be lifted.
Can't do that yet.
Roussin asked about rise in school-aged cases after classes started in September and how he can say those numbers don't reflect school transmission.
He says there's a difference between association and causation.
He says there's a difference between association and causation.
Roussin says poor adherence to public health advice was partly due to populations, like homeless people, that can't engage in distancing.
Roussin asked why tougher restrictions weren't put in place in early October, when real cases blew away worst-case-scenario projections.
He says hindsight is 20/20.
Didn't get orange buy-in.
So red happened.
He says hindsight is 20/20.
Didn't get orange buy-in.
So red happened.
Tried targeted approach. Didn't work. So they had to escalate.
Roussin asked why there was so little buy in.
Figures fatigue set in.
Figures fatigue set in.
[What's the frequency, Kenneth?]
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