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Shylock Holmes Profile picture
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7 Dec, 5 tweets, 2 min read
Hey @MontgomeryMedia , Ross Douthat in the NYT today linked to this Revolver piece alleging voter fraud in Montgomery County.

revolver.news/2020/11/explos…

Have you considered doing a story on it, and asking @MontcoPA and @kenlawrencejr what their explanation is for the anomaly?
The county also looks highly suspicious on this alternative measure:
revolver.news/2020/12/pennsy…
It's worth noting that for a county to look suspicious along multiple independent proxies for voter fraud is quite a coincidence, and seems worth investigating.
If you want help understanding either of the articles, I'd also be happy to do my best to explain them in layman's terms.
Montgomery residents would greatly benefit from your leadership on this issue. County officials apparently feel no obligation to answer ordinary citizens' questions on this issue, but local news is incredibly valuable for exactly this kind of story.

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More from @shylockh

Shylock Holmes Profile picture
7 Dec
Hey @Elaijuh , you've been doing a great job writing about election issues in Philadelphia. Ross Douthat in the NYT today linked to this Revolver piece documenting significant anomalies in @MontcoPA . Have you thought about doing a story on it?

revolver.news/2020/11/explos…
Montgomery also looks highly suspicious along this entirely separate measure of voter fraud, which is quite a coincidence, and would be worth including as part of the same analysis.
revolver.news/2020/11/explos…
Ordinary citizens could really benefit from your leadership on this issue. I've tried repeatedly asking @kenlawrencejr and @MontcoPA about this stuff, but they won't answer me or even acknowledge the questions.
Read 5 tweets
Shylock Holmes Profile picture
6 Dec
Hey @AGHamilton29 , I really hate to ask you to do work. But given you're the go-to debunker, and you linked to the Douthat piece, I notice you haven't written about the Revolver Montgomery piece Douthat links, which is here:
revolver.news/2020/11/explos…
I don't think you've written about the birthday analysis either:
revolver.news/2020/12/pennsy…
I haven't seen you discuss the Vote Pattern Analysis discussion either:
Read 4 tweets
Shylock Holmes Profile picture
5 Dec
Public service announcement: Twitter is full of these troll accounts that pop up in every voter fraud thread to do a disingenuous "just asking questions" shtick. Hallmarks of their style are as follows.
They leap between alternative stories, even if they're totally inconsistent with what they just said previously.
They're very eager to tell you who apparently they voted for, even though nobody ever asked or gave a shit.
Read 10 tweets
Shylock Holmes Profile picture
2 Dec
Voter Birthday Explainer Thread
revolver.news/2020/12/pennsy…

This came out in Revolver recently. It’s a new twist on identifying voter fr**d: Instead of starting with weird vote patterns, find *other data* that look weird (here, voter birthdays), and then relate it to votes.
(1/N)
It’s surprisingly hard to generate fake birthdays without leaving some trace in the data. The piece considers two broad ways that pull in opposite directions. First, you’ll probably pick too many round numbers – 1st, 15th & 31st of the month, Jan and Dec etc.
(2/N)
So, you think, I’ll be clever. I’ll use a uniform distribution over months of the year. Bzzt! Months have different numbers of days. Okay, hmm. I’ll choose uniformly over days of the year. Bzzt! Wrong again. It turns out that actual birth data aren’t uniform here either.
(3/N)
Read 19 tweets
Shylock Holmes Profile picture
30 Nov
I'm firmly of the opinion that nobody owes any duty to investigate anyone else's claims. But I note that he doesn't address any of the anomalies I found most suspicious:

1. In Milwaukee, why did later votes swing more towards Democrats in races they were previously losing?
See here:
What on earth was going on in Montgomery County with the most suspicious looking update in the entire NYT dataset? As in, what's the specific theory here? Or is it just "unspecified errors"?
revolver.news/2020/11/explos…
Read 13 tweets
Shylock Holmes Profile picture
27 Nov
If you want the absolute best coverage of the state of election fr**d coverage, check out everything posted by @PereGrimmer, who's putting on a masterpiece of informed coverage of all the goings-on, including serious legal analysis.
I'm trying to divide my time between original research, summarizing and popularizing others' findings, and keeping abreast of new developments. But he's working full time on the last two, and is the absolute best game in town right now.
The saddest indictment of 2020 is that the only place to get up to the minute coverage of the lawsuits and analysis that affect the presidential election is from samizdat twitter threads by internet anons.
Read 4 tweets

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