This chart is looking more and more like the one of the 1918-1920 flu. Second wave deadlier than the first.

After all, everyone who this summer was saying that the pandemic was over had zero arguments to answer "why would COVID be any different than the flu of 1918-1920"?
The lesson: don't look at lagging indicators (e.g., numbers); look at properties (e.g., viruses spread).

Less models, more common sense.
(Note: the 420k figure in the quoted tweet is an estimate by the researcher, not an actual number; I quoted the tweet for the chart, not for the text below – which is still interesting and worth reading, but an estimate nevertheless)
Why are more people dying during the 2nd wave than in the 1st?

Because there were more people infected in October 2020 than there were in October 2019.

This seemingly banal point has been ignored by so many people.

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More from @DellAnnaLuca

8 Dec
WHY IS THE 2ND WAVE DEADLIER THAN THE FIRST?

In many countries, the 2nd wave is causing more deaths than the 1st. Why?

Short answer: there were more active cases in October 2020 than in October 2019.

This fact was ignored by so many that it's worth a thread.

1/3 Image
2/ For example, take two parallel words. In the first, at October 2020, Italy has 100 cases of COVID. In the second, it has 100,000.

If in both worlds it enacts the same measures, by December there will be many more deaths in the second scenario.

Obviously.
3/ Now, let's imagine that in October 2019 Italy has 100 cases, and in October 2020 it has 100,000. Of course, the second wave has a good shot at being deadlier, barring a miraculous vaccine or treatment. Even if everyone wears face masks and is locked down.
Read 5 tweets
7 Dec
FIVE PRINCIPLES TO UNDERSTAND HUMAN BEHAVIOR

1/ First principle: we do not seek survival, but what feels like survival.

This principle explains self-harm, addictions, toxic relationships, and so on.
2/ Of course, often, the actions that feel like survival (such as eating) do help us survive.

But sometimes they don't. For example, eating 3 sugary donuts in a go lowers our survival, and yet it feels like survival, so we do it anyway.
3/ This principle goes against most of what we are taught (really? we do not seek survival?).

And yet, our actions are enacted by a part of the brain that doesn't have the capacity to think about the long-term implications of our actions; it just feels. That's the real process.
Read 10 tweets
5 Dec
A good point. Soon, we’ll enter the months in which, historically, flu deaths have been high.

But this year, thanks to masks & lockdowns, they’ll be low.

This means that even if excess mortality vs historical baseline will be low, it won’t mean that few will have died of COVID.
Example, with random numbers.

January 2019: 200 deaths, 100 of which due to flu.

January 2021: 250 deaths.

This is not: 250-200= 50 due to COVID.

It’s 250 - (200 - ~80 of flu that got prevented) = ~130 due to COVID.
In the example above, if it weren’t for face masks, it would have been 250 + 130 + additional deaths because COVID would have spread more - people who died of COVID but would have died of flu.

This result is most probably >> than baseline.
Read 4 tweets
2 Dec
ON MANDATORY VACCINATION

I'm against mandatory vaccination for vaccines without long-term studies, but as many countries are talking about mandatory vaccination, a few considerations.

(thread)
1/ There are not enough doses to mandate vaccination for everyone in a country, not in 2021.

Therefore, countries that do decide to mandate vaccination will have to prioritize, and only mandate it for some categories of people.

How to prioritize?
2/ We vaccinate individuals for two reason. To protect them, and to protect their contacts.

As a government, it only makes sense to enforce the latter.
Read 8 tweets
1 Dec
WHO official seems involved in a cover-up of a report of the Italian failures in fighting COVID.

The WHO seems to have preferred saving the reputation of the Italian over circulating information that could have saved lives.

(thread, 1/N)
2/ The investigative journalists of the quoted tweet outlet claim that they have emails showing that Tedros knew about it.
3/ The covered report, between others, claims that deaths were underestimated and that the central command-and-control was slow and led to blind spots.

Nothing new – but the news would the involvement of WHO officials in the cover-up. Image
Read 6 tweets
23 Nov
HOW TO PARETO-PRIORITIZE TWITTER

Probably, 20% of the tweets you read deliver 80% of the value of using Twitter.

You'd be a fool not to prioritize your feed.
Here's how I do it.

(thread, 1/5)
2/ First of all, I set up a Twitter List of the 20 accounts from which I get the most value, and I pin it to my Twitter app.

This is my default feed. Because there are few accounts, I can find the time to read all their tweets even on busy days.

For the rest…
3/ For the rest, I use an app called Mailbrew

I created a digest w/ "news" that gets delivered every morning in my inbox. Because it only shows the top 3 tweets by account, it ensures I only read the best

mailbrew.com/?aff=DellAnnaL… (affiliate, but I use it daily since 2 months)
Read 10 tweets

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