Alex Profile picture
7 Dec, 4 tweets, 1 min read
The next 20K break, whenever that may come, could easily lead to a major $BTC breakout.

That's why being long is the best play even for those who are short-term bearish.
Getting net short here hoping for 16K-17K is a bad bet to me, regardless of if price breaks down or not.
As the saying goes, don't fight the trend.

This bullish trend does not get any stronger.

Price is somewhat overbought here, but neither sentiment nor positioning are extreme.

I remain bullish and positioned accordingly.
Same applies to stocks and commodities, broadly.

This is not the time to get bearish.

Leave picking tops to those who hate money.

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More from @classicmacro

1 Dec
In traditional markets a 10x long generally refers to a trade ten times the size of the trading account.

In crypto markets a 10x long generally refers to a trade ten times the size of the position margin.
That is so as Bitmex innovated by implementing "isolated margin", which separates the margin of a position from the rest of the account.

Don't have isolated margin outsde of crypto.
In crypto a trader taking a 20x long is generally someone using 20x leverage using isolated margin, which technically means trade has a 5% stop.

Given how price gaps, it is best to use high leverage only with isolated margin (as a stop loss).

100x => 1%
20x => 5%
5x => 20%
Read 5 tweets
1 Dec
I can say the same thing about Cronje. I have been outspoken in the past about things he did wrong, but I cannot understate how much he has done right.
He's also a natural born pump (and dump) machine.

Can't pump without dump.
$SUSHI and $KP3R pumping on the news.
Read 4 tweets
30 Nov
This has been my view on gold since November 9 and the Pfizer vaccine news. I'm long - added to my longer term position today. Expect market to soon start trading increased Fed easing to come on December 16, driving the dollar lower. Also longed silver. Same analysis applies.
This is a big picture play, with stops 8% lower => outside the noise. More likely to exit if the macro changes and proves me wrong than hitting that stop. I don't expect either, but always possible.
No, not going to advertise moving all my liquid net worth into bitcoin, like some do for engagement. I'm already balls deep into bitcoin & crypto, been so for a long time. I generally handle crypto positions independently from crypto.
Read 4 tweets
29 Nov
When there is panic in a bull market, that's a long.

Don't need to wait for "confirmation".
Look into the Three Pushes pattern, very useful for timing entries intraday when combined with watching volume exhaustion prints. When an impulsive move (i.e. a push) is very strong, expect continuation. Generally best not to fade the first push (unless a great scalper).
These are $ETH and $BTC charts for last week's crash.

Identify the three pushes.
Read 7 tweets
28 Nov
I'm a proud short-term $XRP hodler since Thursday.

You can joke about the #xrparmy and still long it.
I did call the crypto bottom for you guys in close to real time.

Expect $XRP to continue trading as a high beta, i.e. a faster horse. Instead of the low beta it has been since 2019. Together with $LTC, ideal for getting exposure to the legacy alts.

Read 5 tweets
27 Nov
Ethereum validators generate revenue by validating transactions. Some transactions pay better than others. Archer DAO incentivizes validators (miners) to partner with onchain analysts & traders (suppliers) to validate more profitable transactions. $ARCH
Archer generates more revenue during times of extreme volatility. Once Archer grows, it would be reasonable to expect its price to exhibit negative correlation during market crashes. If so, $ARCH would become a great portfolio hedge and reduce risk.

Here's a more complete picture of what Archer does 👇

Read 7 tweets

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