While we wait for news, here's what's on the line if the Brexit talks fail... 1/ bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Tariffs. This is the big one. Industries ranging from car-making to farming to food would face steep duties on U.K.-EU trade. Nissan, which employs 6,000 people in the Brexit-voting town of Sunderland, says its plant wouldn't be viable in that case 2/ bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
The City. We know finance is losing its passport to the EU, and has moved staff and assets into the bloc. But any hopes of an `equivalence' deal - where the EU deems UK-based firms compliant and therefore able to provide services - likely evaporate 3/bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Customs. We know there's already a lot of red tape due to Brexit, even with a deal, and the govt expects major border delays. But the fear is that the EU will be particularly strict with customs checks in a no-deal scenario, to make a political point 4/ bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Queues. If we do see such border delays, supplies of foods, medicines and chemicals would be disrupted, according to the Cabinet Office's own analysis. 80% of food that is imported by the U.K. comes from the EU, says @the_brc 5/ bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Economy. All this adds up to forecasts of significant hits to GDP under a no-deal Brexit (meaning declining incomes, jobs lost). The IMF sees the EU taking a 0.5% hit to long run output in that scenario, and the U.K. a 3% hit 6/ imf.org/en/Publication…
Northern Ireland. Goods moving GB to NI at risk of going into EU would have to pay tariffs when crossing Irish Sea. The British govt indicates it would renege on this - so ROI would be in tricky spot of perhaps needing new hard border with NI = trouble 7/cer.eu/insights/terri…
Fish. EU boats would lose the automatic right to fish in UK waters, and vice versa. The government expects maritime clashes between boats in that scenario (scallop wars ahoy) 8/ independent.co.uk/news/uk/politi…
Data. Any hopes of a data adequacy agreement between the UK and EU likely diminish sharply, throwing billions of data transfers into legal limbo on Jan 1 and making it much harder to do cross-UK-EU activity 9/ bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Services (80% of the UK economy). Accountants, lawyers and architects will find it much harder to offer their services in the EU, as professional qualifications won't be recognised and they'll need new licences to operate 10/ bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Standards. Firms would face having to get their products cleared by two separate regulatory authorities - in both the UK and EU - if they want to sell in both markets. May mean dual production lines, extra bureaucracy 11/ bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
The Union. A no-deal Brexit will likely further stoke support for Scottish independence, which has been growing in recent months 12/ bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
Transport. With no agreement on road haulage, the number of lorry drivers with the right to enter the EU (and vice versa) would be hugely curtailed, exacerbating hit to supply chain 13/ telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/…
Caveat - if talks break down, the two sides might still strike mini-deals in areas like aviation, energy and transport to mitigate worst disruption. But we'd be in pretty unchartered territory 14/
So these are the things Boris Johnson and the EU have to weigh when deciding whether to make the final leap of compromise for a deal. Follow all the political twists and turns here... 15/ bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
To be honest it's all getting quite anxiety-inducing and fraught, but hey ho this is Brexit. Really not long now until the denouement... ends/ bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
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