Thread by @AnnaJerzewska

This is really concerning. Two main problems remain

1⃣ Implementation of the Protocol itself
2⃣ Layering it with a deal if one emerges

/1

https://twitter.com/lisaocarroll/status/1335975212458840065

1⃣ Hopefully it's obvious how important it is for businesses to understand which goods will be subject to tariffs (the goods at risk question). However it's starting to be less and less relevant as time goes by

/2

Whatever the "at risk" logic will be companies will need to provide some sort of proof that their goods/consignments meet the criteria.

They will not be able to do so overnight.

/3

As it's 7.12, we can now safely say that unless something unexpected happens ALL shipments from GB to NI will be subject to tariffs (if there are any) in January. Until companies figure out how to demonstrate that their goods are not at risk.

/4

There are also reasons to believe that demonstrating that goods stay in NI (and are hence not at risk) will not be as easy as we have hoped..

Again, many companies might end up paying tariffs even if their goods stay in NI.

/5

2⃣ (Applies to other borders too), as soon as we have an FTA, companies will need to start thinking about rules of origin. Something that very few of them have looked at until now.

/6

Why? Cause they were busy figuring out customs declarations and border formalities (in addition to other rules).

So again, unlikely that companies will be able to demonstrate origin in the initial few weeks.

/7

To sum up, no matter what happens we can now safely assume that most if not all movements GB to NI in January will be subject to tariffs.

Deal or no deal. At risk or not.

That's just the reality of it.

/ends