No. This is not the way reserve currencies work.

Currencies do not become reserve currencies because they are easy to trade and ownership can be on the blockchain. They are reserve currencies because the owner can sleep at night with $100bn in one place in one asset.
In the end it is about trust. And reserve currency status is about a multitude of sovereigns trusting one other with the value of their accumulated ‘net retained export earnings’ - and the key is that the others with who’ll they deal have to respect that choice of collateral.
Afghanistan, the DRC, and Russia all have very low debt to GDP. But if some country held only treasury bills of those three countries’ currencies, one would not regard that as a wise choice of assets which would be deemed acceptable collateral to a vast array of other sovereigns.
Digital RMB (DC/EP) is just cash RMB in digital form. Any ‘reserve’ holder will hold not pure non-interest-earning cash but instead will hold a term asset. So digital exchange doesn’t matter. It is the asset held in an account which matters.
Countries will not keep their reserves in a digital app on someone’s phone, PC, or cold wallet on a USB stick. The only assets worthwhile as sovereign reserves are those which the institution of a country recognises as assets owned by the institution of another country.
Denomination of crude trade? petroyuan-gold futures? It doesn’t matter.

What matters is how a country saves in a bilateral relationship with another. Digital currency is meaningless in that regard.

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More from @bauhiniacapital

11 Nov
I was asked to comment on this. So comments follow.

There is more to this thread above.

Please forgive typos. Happy to have feedback/discuss.
Read 10 tweets
10 Nov
JPX Nikkei 400 has always been a RIDICULOUS Index but because it purports to have governance factors, it gets mindshare.

The fine print? In rebals, 40% of the ranking is ROE, 60% is size-related.

Result: big companies go in. Then they get the boot if they lose money.
Then when they make money again, they go back in.

Practical result? Stocks go up. They go in. They go down? They get sold. Buy high sell low.

The governance bit? IFRS, Independent Directors, English Docs, etc are meant to provide a swing of 10 names out of 400.
This year the rebal is 32 names in and 27 out (5 had been merged and they re-up to 400 only once a year). That's of 400 names.

And 60% of the flow in the trade is actually funded by bringing a half dozen names down to the 1.5% cap.
Read 6 tweets
12 Sep
Beware China conspiracy theorists who source everything from Jeff Snider.

I was pointed at this thread earlier.
I am now blocked. Took two responses with actual data, so you'll have to click in.

This chart is Zoltan. He knows plumbing.

Mostly he knows his US plumbing.

The mechanism for foreign ownership of Japanese t-bills is that Japanese investors, corporations, and banks use yen assets to fund foreign asset purchases. Do an FX swap with a foreign bank to get USD, use the USD to fund purchases of assets.
The foreign banks will put the resulting yen into t-bills. That's how cross-currency swap plumbing works. So demand? Japanese banks know there is no growth. Japanese corps are relatively cash-rich, and Japanese banks have fewer and fewer customers for Japanese yen loans. For a
Read 39 tweets
5 Sep
@profplum99 @modestproposal1 I follow SB somewhat closely. There've been several (lots of) smaller funds/fund-like entities launched/established for *specific* investments/trades in the past 24mos (outside VF). VF2 was launched earlier this year. I do not know of a generic broader-mandate "$1B equity fund."
@profplum99 @modestproposal1 The company HAS bought other stocks on an outright non-control position basis before. The Nvidia position (bought in 2018, sold in Jan-19 IIRC) was probably the best-known one. That was in VF. There have been others.
@profplum99 @modestproposal1 Structure of Nvidia trade was long equity position funded by a margin loan. The "equity" check was then funded inside VF1 by combo of equity and VF's "pref" financing.

The "exit" was done through a collar (i.e. sale of 60-65% of delta on day 1, residual risk to collar strikes).
Read 4 tweets
6 Aug
Dear @realwillmeade,

What is this about?

"Former PM at Goldman Sachs founded $1.4 billion hedge fund."

Are you a former PM at Goldman Sachs who founded a $1.4bn hedge fund?

Or are you a former PM at a Goldman-Sachs-founded $1.4bn hedge fund? If so, which one?
Dear @realwillmeade you do know that when you get quoted and you don't correct the public record, people will think you are lying, because you are not expected to let actual untruths stand.

This article here may simply be sloppy reporting of a tweet but it's out there. ImageImage
There are others out there too.
This one is also from a tweet. And it misreads your bio.
But you don't really make your bio clear do you. There are people who would read that bio and say at the very least... "gee, he was a former PM at a hedge fund"

ccn.com/former-goldman… Image
Read 12 tweets
3 May
Within a portfolio (and a portfolio construction method), thinking about optionality and opportunity is important: a counter-thread.
There is no free lunch.

I could go on but that is pretty much it. If you THINK you have discovered something you can do without paying for it, you are ignoring the cost. There is ALWAYS a trade-off.
1) Option spreads are quite literally, “paying for optionality.”

Example: buy a $1500 Jun21 TSLA call at $43. Sell $1520 Jun21 at $40. Net pay $3 for spread. Stock drops $100 next wk, call px drop to $35 and 32.50. Buy back $32.50, own $35 outright.
Read 29 tweets

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