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8 Dec, 19 tweets, 4 min read
“The Fable of the Ant and the Ct40 PCR Test”

Or, an easy way to understand the problems with and damage done by PCR tests for COVID-19
You've probably heard of PCR tests, which are by far the most widely used for COVID-19. Yet many of us are saying that positive PCR test results - “cases” - do not reflect actual viral infections accurately. Why? Read on for a simple analogy...
Let's say there has been a big problem with houses becoming infested with ants [people infected with c19] in your neighborhood. The government says you should get tested for ants [C19] because your ants might "silently spread" to other houses! Scary!
So you say to yourself - assuming you are a rational person sans political agenda and capable of thinking for themselves vs slavishly (Slavitt-ly?) following major media and biased "experts"- "Hmm that seems strange...”
“...I remember the last time I had an ant problem [was sick with a virus] I saw ants on my kitchen counter and pantry [had symptoms]. Now I haven't seen any ants at all [don’t have symptoms], my food is fine, but the government wants me to be tested for ants [C19 infection]?”
So against your better judgement you call the "PCR Exterminator Co" to visit your house [go and take a PCR test]. You tell them you haven't seen any ants [had any symptoms]. To which they reply, "No worries, our PCR ant test is VERY sensitive...”
“... If you are infested with ants [infected], we will find out!"

So he takes a quick look around, sees no ants. Then he starts crawling around under cabinets with a light and magnifying glass, still no ants [symptoms of infection], just like you told him. But then...
...he brings out the PCR "Model CT40” Microscopic Ant Finder [PCR test run at an overly sensitive 40 cycles]. After looking at samples of dust from the corners of your kitchen with his "CT40" microscope for hours he exclaims excitedly that, "A Ha! You have tested positive...”
“...for ants [C19]! We found a single insect leg remnant [a few virus RNA molecules found by a super-amplified PCR test] and it sure looks like it came from an ant [C19 virus]!
You are “infested” with ants [infected with C19] and must quarantine your house for two weeks!"
"But", you say, "you still haven't seen a live ant [found live virus]- why does a single old dead ant leg [RNA remnant] mean I am infested with ants [infected with C19]? Shouldn't you guys just look for actual live ants [live infectious virus]...”
“...and ask the homeowner if they have had an ant problem [symptoms] before branding someone positive for ants [Infected w C19]?”
To which they reply, "we just run the tests. Dr Birx and friends told us this is the way to do it because there might be silent ant spread [asymptomatic C19 spread]. I mean it seems very unlikely to be a driver of ant problems but anyway, enjoy your quarantine!"
“Hmm”, you say, “if you had looked for ants [C19] without using the CT40 [PCR test amplified 1 trillion times], and used a less sensitive test or a different type [PCR run at 30 cycles, 1000x less amplification], would I be positive?” “Heck no! Have you seen any ants?”
To make it worse you call your neighbor to tell him about your “positive” test. He mentions that he doesn’t have any ants either [symptoms] but he does have a plumbing problem [hernia]. So he called the plumber [went to the hospital] ...
...and the plumber [hospital] required he be tested for ants [C19] too with CT40 PCR test! Sure enough they found a piece of an old dead ant so he can’t get his plumbing [hernia] fixed and has to quarantine. Yet he hasn’t seen a single ant [had any symptoms].
And he heard he was now listed in the gov stats as “hospitalized” with ants [C19]. Even worse, your old neighbor passed from a heart attack but they found an ant in his house [he had a positive test] a month ago so he’s now listed as an ant [C19] fatality!
Crazy stuff. Sure seems like if they had stuck to the pre 2020 ways of pest control [diagnosing disease] and just looked for ants [symptoms] the way it’s always been done [with a less sensitive test that finds actual live infections]...
... we’d have much better information about who really has an ant [C19] problem - which many do. And we’d be able to address it more effectively, thereby preventing the collateral health and economic damage. After all, garbage data in, garbage policy out.
Ant bits [viral RNA] will always be out there as will actual live ants [viruses]. Bad data, fear, and hiding won’t “control” them or make them magically disappear. We must live with them and adopt rational policies for the best overall public health outcome.

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More from @TTBikeFit

3 Dec
Bombshell study (meta review) from Oxford just published on PCR testing, Ct and virus viability.

💥This study completely invalidates the current c19 PCR test data💥

Recall that invalid test results also flow into hospitalization and fatality stats.

For key takeaways, read on Image
No viable virus at >7days from symptom onset.

Yet at this time Median Ct was still 26.5- MUCH lower than used in widespread testing.

And at 21 days, 2 weeks beyond transmissibility Ct was still 35! Still below that required to test positive most everywhere! Image
The chances of detecting live virus decreased by 33% with each increment in Ct. Image
Read 11 tweets
2 Dec
Breaking: No one tested at RI’s airport has COVID! 1% of those tested did however have “FalsePositive19”, the pandemic sweeping the world! Officials warned travelers that they “should be ashamed” that they contracted FP19. 1/6 wpri.com/target-12/11-t…
Meanwhile officials admonish public to “stay home but also to get tested”. The DOH director noted that “if folks don’t get tested, we won’t know how many have FP19. Furthermore, hospitals are filling up with FP19 patients.” (Fact check: 22% of avail beds). 2/6
The Binax Now Rapid Antigen test used at the airport has a 1-2% specificity= false positive rate. Hence any perfectly healthy pop tested with Binax will show 1-2% FP19! Just like the airport. 3/6
Read 7 tweets
21 Nov
Two new studies today effectively destroying the gov’s response to C19.

✅Stringent measures have no correlation to outcome

✅No evidence of asymptomatic spread.

Banish the myths of lockdown effectiveness and “silent spread” and we are back to normal.
First, this study shows death rates were influenced by factors like geography and elderly population (life expectancy) but NOT by stringency of Gov imposed measures frontiersin.org/articles/10.33…
Second, a study of 10M (!) folks post lockdown in China showed ZERO transmission from asymptomatic individuals.
Read 6 tweets
14 Nov
Cov19 analysis for State of RI. RI was hit hard in the Spring like other nearby states. Are we setting up for round 2 or is something else happening? Read on. 1/x
First we look at testing. RI breaks out new tests and repeat tests. Note testing is up huge since Spring, but 75% of the tests are now retests. We can see the jump in retests coinciding with colleges and schools starting up. Presumably most of these retests are mandated screening
We are going to ignore “cases” as a metric because anyone paying attention knows that cases alone is useless. Test positivity rate though can be useful. Here we see that first time test positivity is up steeply while repeat test positivity is effectively nil.
Read 14 tweets
13 Oct
Home with family and friends for the Holidays? Not if Task “Force” member Dr Birx has her way. Welcome to the “It’s time for Dr Birx to go” magnum opus.
“home with neighbors and friends may not be a safe place in specific communities.”

That’s one of the key messages of Dr Birx’s talk in Boston Friday. Birx has now officially gone completely “off the reservation” as she tours colleges and spreads a special kind of COVID crazy.
It will be clear when reading the low-lites of her talk that Birx has never left April.

Birx is a non-elected appointee who now feels she has the right to tell you to shun and be suspicious of friends and neighbors. You know what’s coming next: “stay away from your family.”
Read 46 tweets
16 Aug
A new way to look at lockdown severity and its effects. We have all heard of the Oxford lockdown stringency index described here bsg.ox.ac.uk/research/resea… which uses 17 indicators to come up with a lockdown stringency score. What if we looked at cumulative stringency? 1/8
By cumulative stringency I mean the area under the stringency curve. I decided to look at the period from Feb 15 to June 30 2020 and sum the daily stringency scores. The max score for this 137 day period would be 13700 = 137 days * 100 max score. 2/8
As with my prior studies I looked at Western Europe. First the cumulative stringency scores, where Sweden is lowest. No surprise, but note Finland Iceland and even Norway score low. 3/8 Image
Read 10 tweets

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