Share this page!

Dougie Kass Profile picture
Twitter logo
8 Dec, 8 tweets, 3 min read
Why I reduced my long standing $AMZN long yesterday and why I further reduced this morning:
@realmoney

Dec 08, 2020 | 10:15 AM EST DOUG KASS
I Further Reduced My Amazon Long
* This could be a big call... or not!

* This "info" could also be the reason for Walmart's a big call
... or not!
(which we sold out at $150-$152) weakness

I have further reduced my Amazon (AMZN) investment long to small-sized.

I wrote this yesterday:

Dec 07, 2020 ' 02:50 PM EST DOUG KASS

I Am Reducing Amazon From Very Large-Sized to Medium-Sized
* For the first time in
quite a while I am lowering my Amazon position based on possible evidence of slipping backlogs

* Mine is clearly a minority view and I have not seen this conclusion shared on the sell-side

I recently published a column, "Pulling Forward" in which I cited:

"...that in certain
high growth market sectors that are current Wall Street darlings, a lot of demand was pulled forward this year."

Amazon's customers may be spent up and not pent up.

Let me explain...

About this time of year (in every year) , Amazon (AMZN) routinely puts out a non-numerical
piece of fluff about their Holiday business activity.

They have not yet this year. Perhaps the company is scared of antitrust issues and simply deferring the announcement this year.

However, our work indicates that Amazon's shipping backlogs may be shrinking and that some
deliveries are speeding up.

I used to follow the paper industry closely - the backlog was all you needed to make money!

My paper industry trade sources suggest some backlogs shrinkage relative to expectations in containerboard and packaging.

And the local UPS store folks in
South Florida (we spoke to 5-7 of them) are confirming our suspicions and research conclusion.

Ours is admittedly a small sampling, but in an overvalued stock market it is better to be prudent.

This could be a big call... or not! @jimcramer @tomkeene @business @SquawkCNBC
@cnbcfastmoney @threadreaderapp unroll

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
　

Keep Current with Dougie Kass

Dougie Kass Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @DougKass

Dougie Kass Profile picture
10 Dec
See you all on Monday... from @realmoney
dougie kass • 14 minutes ago
Tesla and Twitter...
Not surprisingly not a word about $TSLA share fall from Tesla fan boys (and girls) on Twitter today.
But, god forbid the stock goes up in my (short) face!
Twitter is a cesspool of
anonymity, dogma, hatred and "I told you so's."
I am trying to stay off Twitter more and I no longer own the shares (having sold at $50-$51 before the last quarterly report (which was disappointing).
With Trump riding into the sunset in January I feel his continued tweeting
will have a diminished impact on daily average users (unlike its potent and positive impact) over the last four years.
I also think that Fox, MSNBC and CNN ratings will dive.
Dougie @jimcramer @tomkeene @business @LizClaman @ScottWapnerCNBC @SquawkCNBC @CNBCFastMoney
Read 4 tweets
Dougie Kass Profile picture
6 Dec
SJK
@SJK23424035
Replying to @RevShark @DougKass @fletch_09
Your all over Kass tonight..

What @revshark doesn't understand very well - and as I mention continuously in my Diary - is that works for one person may not work for another person (and vice versa), This is something
that escapes Rev in his commentary. I dont think my approach is the only way to deliver good returns. He seems to think his does - which I always found surprising from a libertarian.
* Day or week positioning in trades of well positioned (technically) small cap spec stocks is
an entirely different business than investing in large, higher quality names over a longer period of time. Its apples to oranges - but both can reap great results and there is value in both strategies.
Read 8 tweets
Dougie Kass Profile picture
3 Dec
@realmoney
Dec 03, 2020 | 03:56 PM EST DOUG KASS
Pfizer News Jabs at Market
The market appears to be trading off on news that Pfizer (PFE) expects to ship half of the Covid-19 vaccines it originally planned for this year, because of supply-chain problems. But the pharma company
still expects to roll out more than a billion doses next year.

@pboockvar just mentioned to me that "the S&P Index is trading 16% above its 200-day moving average -- at the same percentage as on Sept. 2."

We are now at the polar opposite of where we were in March.
The fear of eight months ago has been replaced by extreme greed and the absence of doubt.

It is truly amazing that in an investment setting dominated by passive products and strategies that chase momentum (knowing everything about price but nothing about value) --
Read 5 tweets
Dougie Kass Profile picture
2 Dec
Coming up on @realmoney (I think this is a good one!)
Investors Are (Inappropriately) Unconcerned That We Are At an Enormous "Distance" Financially to the Next Equilibrium Point in Interest Rates

* It is underappreciated and investors lack concern what may happen when the
currently bizarre rate instability is finally disrupted - as it must be someday
* The mountain of global debt will - more sooner than later - weigh on the capital markets
* We look for clues... that the consensus of rates lower for longer will begin to have the foul odor of
"Group Stink"
* Inflationary expectations and bond yields are quietly ticking up
* I remain short bonds (large sized)
* A further and inevitable drop in prices and rise in yields will likely begin to impact market multiples and rate sensitive areas
Read 5 tweets
Dougie Kass Profile picture
1 Dec
@realmoney
Dec 01, 2020 | 09:20 AM EST DOUG KASS
Risk Now Dwarfs Reward
* The S&P is about 20% overvalued
* I am medium-sized (about -25%) net short
* And I have a lot of room to get shorter on further strength

I have been net long for the majority of 2020.

No longer.
I have steadily reduced large holdings in a number of equities to small-sized after the stocks experienced large price share gains and have unattractive upside/downside ratios (e.g., ($DIS) , ($GM) , ($WMT) , ($MS) , ($GS) , ($PZZA) , ($VTV) , ($VBR) , etc.).
And I have totally eliminated some others (e.g., ($TWTR) , ($PNC) ).

The notion of "margin of safety" and reward vs. risk is, too often, missed by the investment community that is now, more than ever, inhabited by those individuals, products and strategies that worship at
Read 5 tweets
Dougie Kass Profile picture
27 Nov
Who shorts $TSLA this week, Bobby?
A contrarian and value investor that doesn't focus on price or momentum (a valid and often profitable method of trading) but focuses on "margin of safety" and intrinsic value.
One who bought $XLF at $21 $GM at $29, $DIS at $93, $GS at $185
recently when they looked terrible technically and sold most of them in the last few days (x- $XLF) considerably higher.
So the answer to your questions: When viewed in the prism of security analysis, a value investor who runs longs and shorts, may consider shorting $TSLA owing
to an assessment that the current price materially exceeds the company's "fair market value."
Rather than ridiculing other investing approaches as foolish or anathema, you might at times consider that other methods away from yours can be quite profitable. As I do yours @dougkass
Read 4 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

Like this author's thread?

Get emails when @DougKass has new unrolls!

Check out other threads from @DougKass!

Read all threads by @DougKass