Do not adjust your mind - the fault is in reality...
oh boy am I excited to discover R.D. Laing...why did it take me so long? Ronny was a redoubtable intellect from my birth city and rocked the world of psychoanalysis in the late sixties and was at the centre of the counter culture in the US. He's my new hero.
Understanding madness, existential philosophy, mysticism and poetry - who needs the first call from an investment bank?? The edge can be found elsewhere in abundant supply if only you are fearless...
Talking about which when you're not wasting your time reading conventional street research you can read surf books. I just read, William Finnegan's Barbarian Days, and guess what its loaded with investment insight. It got me thinking parallel
Cause the thing about one-of-a-kind monster bull markets, and boy are we riding one, they don't increase fractionally. Like big waves it's not the height or the daily percentage movement but the square of the move. Thus a 5pc move is not slightly more powerful than a 3pc day. No!
The leap isn't 3% to 5% but 9 to 25 making it almost 2x more powerful. You definitely can't afford to miss such big waves but do you have the audacity? Big market moves on more than 40 trillion of capitalisation are not measured in percentages but in increments of fear or swagger
Depends on your swagger, I guess? Me? I'm heading back to sunnier and warmer shores.
Talk about a bad trade - going up against the Mother Teresa of macro fin twit on @RealVision I'm talking about @LynAldenContact Maybe its the London weather, I miss St Barts already, but what a bunch of whiners over on the comments page at RV. Get real guys, this is macro!
Let me explain the set-up. We wanted to offer a glimpse of how the real world operates. Hedge fund managers responsible for billions of $s are typically alpha types, time pressed and egocentric. Presenting your best idea to that bunch is a tortuous task - a swim or drown affair.
Lyn is a disciplined investment analyst. She's cultivated a cautious and scholarly reputation. Good on her! Her challenge was to present to me as though I was one of those big swinging managers. I played it for real. I played it hard. I don't crave your love; I'm a sociopath...
If monkeys pick bottoms how do you pass your day? Me? i speak with great minds like Raoul Pal. He's kindly allowed me to share our latest RealVision conversation on my youtube channel.
1 Let's lance this boil re @LukeGromen claim that global CBs stopped sterilising reckless US deficits 6 years ago.
2 Until then we had to suffer the China, like Japan decades before, and Russia before that in the 1970s, had solved the Rubik's cube and was going to rule the world.
3 Bankers, the eurodollar invisible but hyper-active type. They really bought this BS hook line and sinker. They couldn't lend fast enough to all things China. Which is to say there was a massive credit expansion. That money was printed out of thin air.
Hey @RealVision crew! Cycles turn. Rewind to 1981, Fed rates hit 20pc in March. Inflation was 10.9pc. Everyone knew policy was incredibly tight. Inflation was falling. What happened? Bonds got slaughtered. US T yields finally peaked, prices bottomed, round year end at 15.8pc.
Everyone knew this was nuts. But like monkeys, too many bottoms had been picked...and the psychology was forboding. That’s what great turning points do to you. You find yourself at war with your own imagination.
I try and answer your questions relating to my recent twitter outburst regarding the role of negative interest rates. I explain how the external trading value of the dollar is trapped.
How the US has lost its exorbitant privilege..yes, it can still print money, should its private sector banks be willing to do so. However it can no longer lower the external value of the dollar vis-a-vis its trading partners. The mercantilists have gained the upper-hand.
I try and explain how negative US dollar rates might represent a valid and rational attempt to abolish the US from such serfdom buzzsprout.com/1017043/6415015
1. Curiosity is different for every person. For some its hate, or joy or fear or jealousy or torture. For me it's peace, it's everything. It's rock, it's roll, it's Nat King Cole...
2. But then I'm probably a sociopath. To some i'm charismatic to others i'm aggressive. I don't make long term plans and i rarely feel empathy.
3. But sometimes i can feel the future. I hope you enjoyed my super long thread on why the US is being held hostage by other sovereign nations. Unable to devalue the dollar and correct for decades of deficits. An exorbitant privilege ? Give me a break...