Thread by @MShepheard

Today @theCCCuk publishes it's sixth carbon budget. Opening the launch event @lorddeben makes the case that working against climate change will build the economy.

But getting to net zero will be hard. UK emissions have fallen since 1990, but still have a way to go

Lord Deben: "The longer we wait the harder and more costly it will be to combat climate change"

Chris Stark (@ChiefExecCCC): Today's report describes the journey to the long-term goal of net zero. The CCC has outlined multiple scenarios that get the UK to this goal by 2050: widespread engagement, widespread innovation, headwinds and tailwinds

Widespread engagement - people and businesses willing to make behavioural change

Widespread innovation - new technologies accelerate decarbonisation

Headwinds - progress is heavier going and more infrastructure investment is needed

Tailwinds - optimistic scenario

The CCC is working off its fifth scenario, the balanced pathway, which has a mix of technological innovation, behavioural change, headwinds and tailwinds

Front-loading emissions reductions: 60% in the next 15 years, 40% in the latter 15 years. This is aimed to reduce costs by going early, front-loading investment, helping to create jobs. This also minimises the UK’s cumulative emissions and contributions to climate change.

This pathway aligns well with the Paris requirements for carbon targets.

Over to @Mike_Thommo:

The biggest reductions in emissions come from promoting take-up of low carbon solutions. Electrify everything is the most cost effective way to drive emissions reductions.

But this is not just an emissions storage, we also need to work with the land to offset emissions that we cannot fully reduce or eliminate.

This means trees, lots and lots of trees

Chris Stark notes how low-carbon technologies will be the biggest driver of emissions reductions. Not surprising since some of the biggest sources of emissions are transport and heating/cooling homes. Behaviour change won't do as much here as technology

Investment of around £50bn per year is needed to get us to net zero. But this also comes with a huge cost saving from not spending on fuels. Over time this cost saving will exceed the investment.

Mike Thompson: "We designed this as a climate policy, but it could just as easily be an economic policy."

"Housing retrofit alone will add 200,000 jobs nationwide"

"This is a chance to put resources to good use. Once you factor in fuel cost savings this could boost GDP"

Lots of other benefits: cleaner air, cleaner living spaces, better health, more green spaces, more biodiversity

@theCCCuk has slashed its cost estimates, down from 1-2% of GDP, now estimating that the cost will be closer to 0.5% of GDP cost at the max of this. The rapidly falling cost of offshore wind has been a major driver here.

2020 is going to be a strange year. We are going to see reductions in emissions, but the CCC does not assume that these reductions will last though. The challenge is not to rely on a pandemic to drive emissions down, real work is needed and this needs action from government.

Changes we will see on the balanced pathway (2025):
- 30,000Ha of new trees per year
- Coal has been phased out of the power system completely
- New homes completed to the future homes standard
- 1/3 of boilers replaced and new boilers 'hydrogen ready'
- EVs 1/2 of new cars

2035:
- Emissions down 78% since 1990
- Electricity system has grown by a half
- No more gas for electricity and gas boilers entirely phased out
- Zero Carbon steel
- Reduced meat consumption by ¼
- Widespread CCUS
- 50,000Ha of forest per year
- 50% of peatland restored

Scaling up is the theme all along the pathway: offshore wind, heat pump installation, low carbon industrial clusters, EVs, hydrogen boilers. Creates an even transition

World has already warmed by ~1C, and every fraction of a degree of further warming is damaging. Reduction in the price of renewables means that emissions will be likely flat in the future, reducing the likelihood of a 6C rise, making something in the 3C-4C range more likely

In closing @ChiefExecCCC notes that it is now over to Govt to take these targets and do something with the. Next, @theCCCuk will be working on how to deliver these targets.