Thread by @MShepheard

The @theCCCuk has launched its comprehensive report on the UK's sixth carbon budget this morning. Lots of challenges, but also lots of hope for a better future. Thread below covers key points:

- New technology is key, with some behaviour change
- £50bn of investment pa needed

https://twitter.com/MShepheard/status/1336613072102957056

Q: What consideration the CCC gives to new evidence that aviation emissions are causing 3 times more harm than previously estimated. Would a frequent flyer levy be a faster way to reduce aviation emissions?

A: The sooner we cut aviation emissions the better

A: But this report tries to balance the need to reduce emissions with people's want/need to travel. So the scenarios focus on reducing demand growth. Pandemic has supressed demand for flying, and it matters that we cut emissions, but need to see more over time.

Lord Deben: We wanted people to see something realistic in the balanced pathway. If one part of it seemed impossible then CCC was concerned that it would throw the whole balanced pathway into question/doubt

Q: The soil association is pleased to see a reduction in white meat consumption in the target. Would the CCC be keen to see the national food strategy to pick this up, for example promoting ‘less but better’ meat on school menus?

Baroness Brown: British farmers produce meat of outstanding quality so we are in favour of ‘less but better’. We also need to free up land to plant trees to expand emissions removals on the pathway to net zero in 2050

Q: What three things would you ask Boris Johnson to do first?

Lord Deben: If only talking about climate change, get on with the change in heating. Too many people live in cold homes. But also this is the biggest driver of jobs.

Secondly, have very clear road maps for all these issues. Don’t announce car phase out by 2030 unless you can explain year by year how we will get there.

Thirdly, get on with the land use issue – we need to use land more sensibly.

Most importantly - get on with it now

Q: Can you explain how you use the recommendations from the climate assembly to build your advice

Mike Thompson: The assembly was really helpful for the CCC – previously there was a bit of a blind spot for what people actually though. The experience showed you can work with people to help them understand issues. The CCC aligned its scenarios with what the assembly raised

Next step is to align the recommendations of the assembly with policy design.

For example: Assembly said that a 20-40% reduction in meat reduction would be fine and people would be comfortable with this – and this became the reference point for the balanced pathway.

Chris Stark: CCC is known for its very quantitative analysis, but would be interesting to do more deliberative research in the future and welcome views on whether we should do more of this

#UKCarbonBudget

Q: How ready are government departments to deliver all of this?

#UKCarbonBudget

Chris Stark: CCC has more of a view of what’s going on behind the scenes in govt. There is a lot going on. There is a long list of strategies and plans just for the next year alone. The PM has lifted the ambition for this with his ten point plan.

But we need to raise the ambition in policy terms, especially in the coming parliamentary term.

#UKCarbonBudget

Lord Deben: All departments have a part to play. Every policy decision needs to consider how it advances the UK’s progress towards the net zero goal. The PM’s commitment to reducing UK emissions by 68% in 2030 is great, but there needs to be a coordinated push to deliver this.

Baroness Brown: Strong response coming from industry, many FTSE100 companies signing up to their own net zero targets. We also need local government action, and many local authorities are setting net zero targets, but they need help from central government to deliver locally

Q: Hydrogen will be used in industry, why so much focus on hydrogen boilers in homes

Mike Thompson: Efficiency and electrification are the main actions for homes. Until we can ramp up heat pumps (which will take a decade) we will still need to install boilers. So we need them to be hydrogen ready in case the heat pump scale up is harder than planned.

We need to give ourselves optionality, the cost of hydrogen could fall dramatically. There will be a small cost – around £100 per boiler (relative to a £2000 cost of a new boiler). With inflation and innovation this cost could fall.

Q: What sort of policies do we need right now to spur private investment and the market

#UKCarbonBudget

Mike Thompson: we are looking at a total investment cost of £10,000 per home. This is the part of this transition where the government will really have to help people to pay for this. Vulnerable people, the fuel poor, should have this cost entirely covered by the government

This will deliver better, more liveable homes, lower costs as heating bills go down. Also look at rental stock – costs pushed onto landlords. Rented homes already required to meet general energy efficiency standards, this could be expanded to a broader carbon efficiency standard.

Q: Can we commoditise wind and solar?

Chris Stark: We are moving away from fossil fuels to a world where energy generation is entirely different. Pricing mechanisms that will help along the way. We need the government’s vision on the economics of a zero carbon energy system.

The government actually needs to spell out that it is serious about decarbonising heat, and making buildings more efficient. The CCC’s analysis spells out key dates for phase-out of things like natural gas boilers. The market needs that kind of certainty.

1,000,000 heat pumps by 2030 is a genuine ambition and the government should do more of this.

#UKCarbonBudget

Some discussion of the government's green homes grant, which @colmbritchfield wrote about previously:

It's nice in principle, but in practice it is a policy with a lot of holes. The Govt needs to do better with other Net Zero policies

#UKCarbonBudget

instituteforgovernment.org.uk/blog/governmen…

Q: How will we reward farmers for their loss of income?

Lord Deben: one challenge of the agriculture act is compensating people for producing public goods. Without current levels of subsidy many farms would not be profitable. The last thing we want is to import more food.

We need to do more to work with farmers, and farmers need to look into ways to produce food in a more climate friendly way. Govt needs to protect them from being undercut from imports. Discussions about trade are crucial for hitting out climate goals

The current system does not give farmers the support and encouragement they need to invest for the future.

#UKCarbonBudget

Q: What will be our big ask of the world for COP26?

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Baroness Brown: By accepting the CCC advice on the NDC so quickly (which aligns exactly with the sixth carbon budget) it sends a strong signal that the UK is serious about it. The 2030 NDCs are crucial, and it is good that the UK shows that it is prepared to do what is needed.

Chris Stark: We can also offer the framework we have to tackle this. The Climate Change act sets out a clear set of responsibilities for the government to act. There is also a really optimistic story playing out in the world economy in transport, industry, and other sectors.

These gains are being provided by commerce, and there is momentum here we can grasp and build on to get to a net zero world.

Lord Deben: We wont get to our target unless the government shows that it is determined in all ways and at all times that this enjoys real national leadership, at all levels of government, and a determination to join with others around the globe.

#UKCarbonBudget

This is a chance for 'Global Britain' to show that it is a real thing, and for the UK to take a real leadership role in the world. Now it is up to the government to work and achieve this, and achieve it immediately.