After climate change, competing with China is the next most important security challenge for the United States in the 21st century. The Trump team has framed this struggle as Cold War 2.0. Some parts of this analogy are right. Others very wrong. THREAD 1/
Those invoking the Cold War analogy like it because we "won" the Cold War. If we won Cold War 1.0, we can win Cold War 2.0 2/
In fact, Russian democrats, together with Polish, Hungarian, Baltic, Ukrainian, Georgian anti-communists forces were the ones really responsible for "winning" the Cold War. We played a marginal role in the end game. (But that's a longer story for another day) 3/
But during the Cold War, we did do some things right -- containment, alliance cohesion, propagating liberal ideas, crisis management with the Soviets, and some cooperation w/ Moscow such as arms control & smallpox eradication. We should learn from those positive lessons. 4/
But we also made some horrible mistakes during the Cold War -- unnecessary proxy wars, because we conflated nationalism & communism, killing tens of millions; propping up dictators including apartheid; McCarthyism. 5/
Today, we are repeating this last mistake. Demonizing all Chinese people, including students, weakens us and strengthens the CCP. We should want as many Chinese students to study in the US as possible and then create incentives for them stay & become citizens. 6/
Attracting the best and the brightest from around the world was an essential element of our victory in the last Cold War. We need to be using that powerful tool in our arsenal again. 7/
For elaboration, see my “Lessons from the Cold War for Competing (and Cooperating) with China Today,” in @TWQgw , coming soon.

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More from @McFaul

8 Dec
When I was in government, I remember Ambassador Bill Burns saying many a time in meetings that we were doing a great job "admiring the problem." But we were not solving the problem. That comment reminds me of Trump & team's China policy. THREAD 1/
I applaud the Trump administration diagnosis of the China challenge. The 2017 National Security Strategy rightly focused on great power competition -- China and Russia -- as needing more attention. 2/
This summer and in a very long Policy Planning paper, Trump (or is it really presidential candidate Pompeo?) then overshot the mark. See my take here: Xi Jinping Is Not Stalin foreignaffairs.com/articles/unite… via @ForeignAffairs 3/
Read 9 tweets
5 Dec
Here's my @JoeBiden foreign policy "to do" list in the first year.

Day One: rejoin the Paris climate agreement. THREAD.
2. Extend the New START Treaty for five years.
3. Reenter the Iran nuclear deal (JCPOA). Once done, devise and implement a new comprehensive strategy for containing Iranian influence in the region and promoting democracy inside Iran.
Read 8 tweets
30 Nov
"President Biden’s first day on the job in January will generate enormous joy, positive anticipation, and relief for American allies and everyone around the world who values democracy." THREAD 1/

americanpurpose.com/articles/dress…
"Reversing negative trajectories regarding American leadership will be a tremendous accomplishment. Still, it will not be enough. In the time since Biden last served in government, the world has changed." 2/
"His administration, in turn, will not only have to recalibrate polices but also implement internal reforms of the institutions responsible for the way we interact with the outside world, so that those institutions can successfully address new challenges." 3/
Read 4 tweets
24 Nov
In one sentence @JoeBiden makes clear his foreign policy worldview: “America is back, ready to lead the world, not retreat from it, once again sit at the head of the table, ready to confront our adversaries and not reject our allies, ready to stand up for our values.” THREAD 1/
In the U.S., two cleavage issues have shaped foreign policy debates since the founding our Republic: internationalism vs isolation and liberalism vs realism. 2/
In the last several decades, this debate is not BETWEEN political parties, but within them. If you can imagine a 2 X 2 matrix, there are Democrats and Republicans in all 4 quadrants. 3/
Read 8 tweets
23 Nov
Ambassadors @RNicholasBurns , Marc Grossman, and Marcie Reis have written a terrific report for how to revitalize American diplomacy called, A U.S. Diplomatic Service for the 21st Century . Download here: belfercenter.org/publication/us… . THREAD 1/
Among many pragmatic and doable reforms, they recommend “funding for a 15 percent increase in Foreign Service personnel levels to create a training float like that maintained by the U.S. military.” 2/
They call for “an increase of 2,000 positions over three years . After the 15 percent increase in positions is achieved, launch a four-year commitment to increase the size of the Foreign Service by another 1,400-1,800 positions to fill current and projected staffing gaps.” 3/
Read 4 tweets
21 Nov
After January 20, 2021, I hope the American media can end their obsession/addiction to Trump.
I’m so old that I remember a time when conservatives and the GOP detested frivolous law suits.
I’m so old that I remember a time when conservatives respected states rights and the 10th amendment.
Read 5 tweets

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